Putin has already emerged as the winner of his Alaska summit with Trump

Telegraph

7 days ago

Regardless of the outcome of the Alaska summit, there is likely to be one winner – at least in the short term. And that is Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
Here is why:
A direct summit between the US and Russia flatters Moscow greatly. For ex-KGB spy man Putin, it brings back the glory days of the Cold War, when the Soviets were the economic and military equal of America. Nowadays, Russia has an economy smaller than that of Italy and, apart from its raw materials and nuclear weapons, it's a declining, middling country. By meeting Trump as an equal, Putin can present himself as once again bestriding the global stage in a world where Russia, the US (and China) make the rules. It's a useful image for projecting influence, even if it flatters to deceive.
The images that will come from Alaska will probably also help to reinforce the Russian regime's central propaganda lie: that Ukraine is neo-Nazi puppet of the corrupt West, and that Moscow is fighting a defensive war against Nato in Ukraine to stop an invasion of Russia. However deluded that sounds to us, the image of Putin and Trump negotiating over Ukraine reinforces it. Kyiv's absence from the talks allows it to be painted as little more than a pawn.
It's also important for Putin to avoid direct negotiations with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, given the Russian's refusal to recognise Ukraine as an independent nation. That Ukrainians overwhelmingly want their own state and reject Russian rule is not something that Putin cares to contemplate. For him, Ukrainian identity is a fake construct, a form of false consciousness created by the enemies of Russia to divide the unity of the eastern Slavs. That is why Putin's regime steals and indoctrinates children from the occupied Ukrainian territories – to 'reprogramme' them.
The optics of this meeting will cause nervousness in Western capitals, too. Putin still clearly believes that he can separate a Trump-led US from the UK and Europe. One long-term aim of the Kremlin, through this and previous regimes, has been to break the transatlantic link. The more that Putin can improve ties with Trump – or indeed with some European leaders – the more questions there will be over the unity of Nato, the bedrock of global security since the Second World War. Any fracturing of that alliance will be especially bad for nations such as the UK, which will bear the brunt of future Russian hostility.
The Alaska optics should especially worry Ukraine. It hurts their cause to see others decide their fate. Putin may use Trump's understandable desire for peace to encourage the US president to press Ukraine into a humiliating surrender, giving up as yet unconquered land, which will in turn undermine Ukrainian cohesion. Russia would then try to use non-military tools of conflict to destabilise Ukraine, until such a time as it can attack the country again.
Putin has three aims in his remaining years: to re-create Russia as a virulently anti-Western nation, to destroy Ukraine, and to break the credibility of Nato. He has achieved the first, he is working on the second, and will try to achieve the third at some point.
In this context, Putin does have some work to do at this summit. He probably realises that he has overplayed his hand with Trump in recent months, manipulating and mocking in equal measures. He may conclude that continuing talks will help undermine Western cohesion and Ukrainian morale, while his soldiers make modest gains on the battlefield. To that end, he may hint at a deal or at least agree to discuss parameters for future negotiations to give the US president a tangible outcome.
But we should remember that, in the Kremlin's school of negotiation tactics, ceasefires and talks are used as much to weaken the will of one's adversaries as to achieve a lasting peace, and that in Russian military doctrine, non-military tools of conflict are as important as military tools. If Putin can use diplomatic and psychological tactics to achieve the victories that his soldiers have failed to win, he will do so. If he can pocket the same diplomatic victories as Stalin managed over the naïve West in Yalta at the end of the Second World War, he will take them.
So, while this summit may be part of Trump's peace plan – and we should recognise that he is at least trying to bring this war to an end – it is also probably part of Putin's war plan. Putin wants to destroy an independent Ukraine. He continues to show determination and patience in achieving that goal, even if his tactics change.