Who will win the Champions League 2025? Opta supercomputer has its say
The UEFA Champions League 2024-25 semi-finals begin on 29 April, with Arsenal taking on PSG. It will be followed up by Barcelona vs Inter Milan on 30 April, with both ties set to be replayed for the 2nd leg next week.
Arsenal have emerged as favourites to lift the 2024–25 UEFA Champions League trophy, according to the latest projections from the Opta supercomputer, following their quarter-final victory over Real Madrid.
The Gunners, who have played a record 199 matches in the competition without winning the title, now have a 31.3% chance of claiming their first European crown.
Arsenal's semi-final opponents, Paris Saint-Germain, are next on the list with a 22.0% likelihood of winning, while Barcelona are given a 27.4% chance.
Barcelona will face Inter Milan in the other semi-final tie. Inter are the underdogs among the final four, with a 19.2% chance of lifting the trophy.
The Opta model predicts that Inter have just a 42.5% probability of advancing past Barcelona over two legs.
The semi-finalists — Arsenal, PSG, Barcelona, and Inter — progressed through a quarter-final field that also included Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Aston Villa, and Borussia Dortmund.
Earlier in the tournament, sides such as Liverpool, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille, and Benfica were eliminated in the round of 16.
Notable early exits included Manchester City, Juventus, and AC Milan, who failed to progress beyond the group stages.
Opta's supercomputer simulates the tournament 10,000 times using betting market odds combined with historical and recent team performance data, alongside Opta Power Rankings, to estimate match outcomes and overall projections.
With the final four now set, anticipation builds as Arsenal look to finally secure their first Champions League triumph, while Barcelona, PSG and Inter seek to upset the current odds.
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