Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, pick: Can ex-champ rebound in Atlanta?
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, pick: Can ex-champ rebound in Atlanta?
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Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC on ESPN 69 main event.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 69 main event between former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley.
Kamaru Usman UFC on ESPN 69 preview
Staple info:
Record: 20-4 MMA, 15-3 UFC
20-4 MMA, 15-3 UFC Height: 6'0" Age: 38 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76"
6'0" 38 170 lbs. 76" Last fight: Decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev (Oct. 21, 2023)
Decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev (Oct. 21, 2023) Camp: ONX Labs/Kill Cliff FC (Denver)
ONX Labs/Kill Cliff FC (Denver) Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Switch-stance/kickboxing Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
Former UFC welterweight champion
NCAA Division-II national champ
3x NCAA All-American
9 KO victories
1 submission win
3 first-round finishes
Consistent pace and pressure
Solid feints and footwork
Improved overall striking
^ Jabs, bodywork, etc.
Strong inside the clinch
Excellent takedown ability
^ In the open or against the fence
Superb top game and control
^ Rides and transitions intelligently
+/- 6-2 against UFC-level southpaws
Joaquin Buckley UFC on ESPN 69 preview
Staple info:
Record: 21-6 MMA, 11-4 UFC
21-6 MMA, 11-4 UFC Height: 5'10" Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76"
5'10" 31 170 lbs. 76" Last fight: Decision win over Colby Covington (Dec. 14, 2024)
Decision win over Colby Covington (Dec. 14, 2024) Camp: Finney's HIT Squad (St. Louis/Illinois)
Finney's HIT Squad (St. Louis/Illinois) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Southpaw/kickboxing Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+/- 10-2 at welterweight
+/- 7-4 at middleweight
15 KO victories
4 first-round finishes
KO power
Athletic and explosive mover
^ Blitzes in and out of range
Hard hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
Underrated/underutilized kicking ability
Strong inside the clinch
Solid first-layer defense
^ Good sprawls and underhook awareness
Servicable transitional grappler
^ Will scramble hard to standing positions
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event in Atlanta features a welterweight showdown between Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley.
A switch-stance fighter who is competent in both stances, Usman has been steadily crafting his striking game for years under the tutelage of coaches like Henri Hooft and Trevor Wittman.
Whether Usman is feinting forward or shifting his stance in combination, the former welterweight champion is at his best when corraling his opposition toward the cage, attacking them with impunity whenever they step near it. The 38-year-old veteran is also smart about shifting away from his opponent's power side when advancing, all while throwing corralling hooks that help him close space.
Usman has obviously been focusing a lot more on his jab and lead-hand work in more recent years, showing a sharp acumen from both stances. From offensively flowing off of his jab to using it in a checking or countering manner, Usman is good about keeping his feet underneath him for maximum functionality.
Kamaru Usman landing some nice 1-2's when Khamzat Chimaev went southpaw pic.twitter.com/WvIomEVH3u — Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 12, 2025
Even when fighting in open-stance affairs, Usman – unlike most fighters in MMA – doesn't abandon his jab and will smartly counter or build off of it.
Nevertheless, as efficient as this approach has been for Usman, he will still need to be careful when it comes to predictability and feinting if he wants to avoid any costly counters coming his way.
Enter Buckley.
A self-made martial artist from St. Louis, Buckley appears to be built for the fight game. Not only can Buckley talk the talk, but the 31-year-old contender can also walk the walk in the way that he's willing to go to war with anyone on the roster.
Whether we're looking at Buckley's in-and-out movements or his natural aptitude for high-flying kicks, you'd be forgiven for assuming that "New Mansa" comes from a traditional martial arts background. Add in his healthy mix of slipping and ripping hooks, and Buckley makes for a dangerous package to deal with on the feet.
Buckley does have a tendency to load up heavily on linear advances, but the 11-year pro seems to do a better job of trying to step through or off of the centerline, sometimes shifting into an orthodox stance to gain a better angle a la Dustin Poirier.
Still, Buckley will need to be careful about his aggression being used against him given the looming takedown threats from Usman.
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley breakdown: Wrestleweight
Given the prominent role that it has traditionally played in the upper echelons of welterweight, winning the wrestling will likely be paramount for both parties this Saturday.
Usman, who is the superior wrestler on paper, prefers to get a lot of his wrestling done along the fence via corralling and clinching efforts. Once establishing his office in this space, the former champ wastes little time in going to work with everything from foot stomps to crafty over-hooks that interweave into wrist controls (a la Jon Jones).
Wrestling at a Division II level for three years (where he was also a two-time national finalist), Usman has always shown the freakish ability to both finish and defend shots from sometimes surprising positions.
Coupled with his work ethic and determination, Usman was able to over-perform in a multitude of ways, especially considering that he didn't even start wrestling until mid-way through high school.
After helping high-level fighters with their own wrestling, Usman ended up making the jump into mixed martial arts, where he has steadily built onto his imposing wrestling game and presence. Whether he is hitting takedowns in the open or chaining his attempts along the fence, Usman has, for the most part, been able to do what he wants to wrestling-wise inside of the octagon.
Freakish takedown ability aside, Usman also bears an impressive intelligence in transition that could help him in his matchup.
Demonstrating excellent positional awareness, Usman always seems to make high-percentage choices whether he is passing or punching. Using suffocating wrestling rides that stymie everything from posts to submission attempts, Usman will seamlessly hit his transitions while steaming his opposition underneath him.
Although reactionary shots in the open will likely be available due to Buckley's aggression, chaining attacks along the fence might end up being Usman's best bet. That said, getting past Buckley's first layer of defense appears to be increasingly difficult as his career progresses.
Possessing strong hips and an athletic sprawl that he keeps on a hair-trigger, Buckley is good about shutting down shots that come his way in the open. When Buckley is pressed against the cage, he applies solid underhook awareness that he utilizes to help hoist opponents off of his hips.
However, Buckley can sometimes fail to cover the head, which can allow for directional changes and extended attacks from his opponent. Buckley, to his credit, is an urgent scrambler from negative positions and is good about using the cage to stand.
Offensively, Buckley has demonstrated improved takedowns and ground-and-pound to boot – I'm just not sure how much of those skills we'll get to see in this matchup.
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley odds
The oddsmakers and the public favor the younger fighter, listing Buckley -280 and Usman +210 via FanDuel.
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, pick
Given MMA gamblers' love for fading older fighters, the betting spread above sadly doesn't surprise me. That said, I don't agree with the odds and warn anyone who is completely discounting Usman in this spot.
Aside from the fact that Usman's three-fight skid is not as bad as it appears (especially considering that he has an argument for drawing with Khamzat Chimaev on short notice), the former champion is the more proven product with a positive record opposite southpaw opposition, officially standing at 6-2 when facing UFC-level lefties.
🪡🧵#TheSouthpawReport for #UFC286: (will add to this thread as the week goes on)
• Kamaru Usman is 6-1 against UFC-level southpaws (wins: Yakovlev, Edwards, Maia, RDA, Covington X2; loss: Edwards rematch)
Edwards built on classic SP attacks en route to finding a late finish: pic.twitter.com/nbo1S0LYpi — Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 15, 2023
It's also important to note Usman's two southpaw defeats come to the same fighter: Leon Edwards.
Aside from the fact that Usman was beating Edwards until getting knocked out in their rematch, Buckley bears a different style than the Birmingham fighter. Though I'd argue that Buckley has some underrated kicks that will be live in this fight, he hasn't shown the same anti-wrestling shot selection in his kicks or punches, much less the ability Edwards had to stymie and strike in the clinch.
Don't get me wrong: Buckley has the power and explosive nature to catch any version of Usman – old or not.
That said, Buckley's linear aggression can also run him square into the wrong end of exchanges, as I wouldn't be shocked to see Usman's counter-jab sit down the young buck as it did to Gilbert Burns.
Akin to Burns, fighters who can jab have traditionally troubled Buckley in victory or defeat. Buckley may have earned stoppages or knockdowns in five of his last six outings, but I also noticed that "New Mansa," whose style has a quiet reliance on wrestling for an outlet, is 4-4 when unable to secure takedowns in UFC fights.
Say what you will about Usman's knees, but the man has maintained north of a 90 percent takedown defense ratio when looking at his welterweight career in the octagon. Add in the fact that we still haven't even seen Buckley in the championship rounds, and I can't help but side with the more skilled operator and known quantity in Usman.
Although a grinding win for the underdog shouldn't shock anyone, I'll officially pick Usman to remind the masses with a stoppage via strikes in Round 4.
Prediction: Usman inside the distance
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley start time, how to watch
As the main event, Usman and Buckley are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
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