Philippines goes to polls amid high-stakes showdown between Marcos-Duterte dynasties

Independent

12-05-2025

Millions of people in the Philippines are headed to the polls in the mid-term elections seen as a test of a long-running power struggle between president Ferdinand Marcos and impeached vice-president Sara Duterte.
Though not running themselves, Mr Marcos Jr and Ms Duterte are aggressively campaigning for rival candidates, turning the vote into a proxy war between the two powerful dynasties.
Over 18,000 positions are being contested, including mayors, governors, and members of the House of Representatives.
The Senate race holds potentially major consequences for the 2028 presidential election in the nation of 110 million.
On Monday, about 68 million Filipinos eligible to vote in the elections will vote at the polling stations with voting closing at 7pm local time.
What's at stake?
The race for 12 of the 24 Senate most-watched seats is crucial. A Marcos-aligned majority would allow the president to push through his legislative and economic agenda.
At stake for Mr Marcos – the namesake and son of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos – is his policy agenda, his legacy and influence over his succession in 2028 after he won the 2022 general election by a landslide.
For Mr Marcos Jr, popularly known as Bongbong Marcos, the election victory in 2022 marked the stunning comeback of his family's political dynasty almost four decades after it was overthrown.
For Ms Duterte, it is personal. The outcome could determine whether she survives an impending impeachment bid.
The election is also crucial for her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, who is imprisoned thousands of miles away in The Hague after he was arrested in March for his crimes against humanity over his so-called war on drugs.
Mr Duterte is running as mayor of Davao, a position he held for over two decades before becoming president. He is widely expected to win, even it's less clear how he can practically serve as mayor from behind bars.
Under Philippine law, candidates facing criminal charges, including those in detention, can run for office unless they have been convicted and have exhausted all appeals.
Why the senate race matters
The race would determine the political future of Ms Duterte, who could be permanently barred from public office if her impeachment trial, tentatively set for July, goes against her.
She would need the support of at least nine senators to block a conviction at the impeachment trial in the 24-member Senate, and preserve any chance of continuing in public office – or mounting a future presidential run.
The election has a new significance after the collapse of the once formidable 2022 alliance between Marcos and Duterte dynasties. However, their long-simmering acrimonious feud exploded in February after she was impeached by the House on allegations she misused funds, amassed unexplained wealth and threatened the lives of the president, first lady and the house speaker.
She has denied the allegations against her and said last week that her and her family's name 'have been dragged through the mud'.
'Who will really benefit if the Duterte family is gone from this world? Not the Filipinos, not the victims of crime, the unemployed, the poor or even the hungry,' she asked at a rally.
Just a month after her impeachment, her father was arrested and taken to the International Criminal Court. She has invoked her father's arrest at the rallies and accused Mr Marcos of selling out sovereignty by giving up a former president to a foreign court.
Casting her vote on Monday, she said, "Whatever happens with the impeachment, whether a guilty (verdict) or acquittal, I'm ready for whatever happens'.
She is considered a strong contender for the 2028 presidential race. But if convicted by the Senate, she will be removed as vice president and disqualified from holding public office.
"The 2025 midterm elections will be crucial, because the results will set the pace for what will happen next, which family or faction will dominate the elections in 2028," said Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.
If Ms Duterte is convicted in the impeachment trial, it could signal the end of the Duterte family holding key positions in the country, she said.
What are the promises?
The Marcos camp has framed the election around defending the Philippines' sovereignty, especially against China 's actions in the South China Sea, while Duterte's camp accuses the president of compromising national dignity by cooperating with the International Criminal Court.
Mr Marcos has overseen a dramatic shift in foreign policy with his firm stance against China's assertive actions in the South China Sea central to his campaign.
He has strengthened the Philippines' military alliance with the United States and taken a more assertive position against China's sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea.
This marks a clear departure from Rodrigo Duterte's foreign policy, which was characterised by closer ties with Beijing and frequent criticism of Washington in his 2016-2022 presidency.
Other key issues are food security and jobs with the Philippines posting a 5.4 per cent growth rate in the first quarter of the year.
While that figure outpaces many economies globally, it still fell short of government projections, raising concerns about whether the Marcos administration's economic policies are delivering as promised.
In a country of over 7,000 islands that heavily depends on its call centre industry and $38bn in annual remittances from overseas workers, even a modest economic slowdown can have wide-reaching impacts.
The shortfall has given the president's critics, including the Duterte camp, an opening to question his economic stewardship and argue that ordinary Filipinos are yet to feel the benefits of that growth.