Finnish leader warns the Kremlin: ‘You don't play with President Trump'
It could be a coincidence. Or Trump could be listening to Finland's president, Alexander Stubb, who has emerged as a prominent voice of Europe's smaller nations on Russia's war against Ukraine.
In an interview with The New York Times on Sunday, Stubb downplayed his effect on Trump. He noted that President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain were leading European efforts, with his role being merely to 'nudge things in the right direction' and 'try to connect the dots.'
But Stubb's country understands the peril of peace negotiations for Ukraine perhaps better than any other. After wars with the Soviet Union in the 1940s, Finland gave up land to Moscow, agreed to neutrality, and accepted limits on its military, remaining under the Kremlin's thumb to some degree for decades.
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Stubb doesn't want Ukraine to suffer the same fate.
He declined to detail his conversations with Trump, though he said he left Vatican City feeling 'a tad more optimistic' about the prospects for peace. But Trump, after their two recent meetings, has repeated almost verbatim the very message Stubb has been sending publicly: President Vladimir Putin of Russia will 'play a cat-and-mouse game to the bitter end' and is stringing Washington along, requiring Trump to increase the pressure through 'power and sanctions.'
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'Everyone has to understand that the only thing that Putin understands is power,' Stubb said. 'I mean, there's a reason why Finland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe, and the reason is not Sweden.'
Russia shares an 835-mile border with Finland, and by Stubb's count, has fought 30 wars or skirmishes against the Finns since the 1300s. An ancestor of his co-authored Finland's declaration of independence in 1917, after a century of Finland's being part of the Russian Empire, which followed several centuries of rule by Sweden.
Stubb, who took office last year and previously served as prime minister, warned that Putin would do the opposite of what he says.
'That is in the soul and spirit of Russian international relations,' he said.
A center-right leader, Stubb, 57, is uniquely equipped to appeal to Trump. He is a 6-foot-2 marathoner and triathlete who speaks fluent English with only a slight accent, plays near-professional-level golf — he competed on the Finnish national team — and brings a central-casting look to his position. He spent a year of high school in Daytona Beach, Fla., and graduated from Furman University in South Carolina. He studied on a golf scholarship, becoming a self-described 'avid pro-American.'
Despite claiming to play a bit role, Stubb has inserted himself in the Ukraine peace process in what he calls 'a humble way,' regularly speaking with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and other European leaders, in addition to Trump. He says he hopes his special understanding of the United States and Russia can be of assistance.
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He said he sensed Trump's exasperation.
'The president is running out of patience, and we've now seen statements which are quite tough on Putin and Russia,' Stubb said. 'So I just hope the Kremlin understands that you don't play with President Trump.'
He said Trump's diminished patience could 'actually then move things in the right direction' by forcing Russia to stop delaying.
But Trump has been known to abruptly change his public stances, often aligning them with people he has recently consulted. And despite his warnings to the Kremlin, he has not followed through with any increased pressure on Putin, instead aiming much of his ire at Zelensky.
Putin declared a unilateral 72-hour cease-fire Monday, in what seemed to be a response to Trump's outburst. But the measure fell far short of the 30-day unconditional cease-fire proposed by the United States and Ukraine.
US negotiators have presented their proposed outline of a peace deal, which includes US recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, he said, and Ukraine and the Europeans responded with a counterproposal, which Moscow rejected.
'What I suggest now is that we need to repackage these two proposals into something which gives the opportunity to strike a deal right now,' Stubb said.
Statehood consists of land, sovereignty, and independence, he said, and Finland lost two of the three in the 1940s. He said he wanted Ukraine to keep all three, but accepted that it might have to make compromises on territory, reflecting battlefield realities.
'If we get at least two out of the three for Ukraine, I think it's great,' he said. 'But Finland will never, ever recognize any of the areas that Russia has annexed during this war from Ukraine.'
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He said he believed that 'a little bit of creative writing' could be drafted to stop the killing in Ukraine, even reflecting differences such as the US willingness to recognize Crimea as Russian and the European refusal to do so in separate annexes. At some point, he added, Ukraine and Russia will need to negotiate directly.
'Right now, politically, the key is to maximize the pressure on Putin,' he said.
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