THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Stream Ronny Henriquez, trade for Gunnar Henderson

New York Times

5 days ago

Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions.
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The BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years, providing estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics such as exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and more. Another critical concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
This week's iteration suggests streaming Miami Marlins reliever Ronny Henriquez and trading for Gunnar Henderson. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it.
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.
For example, Andrés Giménez, who is on the 10-day IL but on a rehab assignment, has a year-to-date value of -$6.40, but THE BAT X projects him to have a rest-of-season value of $11.10. Due to his injury and a .195 batting average in 142 plate appearances, he is available in some leagues and could help your roster as the season progresses. He has an xBA of .255, a sprint speed in the 84th percentile and nine stolen bases on the season. On this list, J.T. Realmuto and Luis Robert Jr. have the best projections for the rest of the season but carry higher rostered percentages.
On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown and Reese Olson offer the best ROS values. Reese Olson is eligible to return from the 15-day IL but isn't quite ready yet, according to Tigers' manager A.J. Hinch. Still, if Olson was dropped in any of your leagues due to injury, now might be the time to add him. He's 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA (3.48 xERA), and his Whiff% (32.1) is in the 88th percentile, while his K rate (25.4) is in the 72nd. His changeup has a 50.5 Whiff% and a 30.9 PutAway%.
Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Alex Bregman is on the 10-day IL but could face a longer stint. At this point, a trade is unlikely, so you might be stuck with him. Hunter Goodman has a ROS projected value of -$3.20 but qualifies as a catcher, where pickings are relatively slim. His .265 BA might be enticing, but his xBA is .239, and plenty of his Statcast numbers are in the blue, not red. If you have another catcher on your roster, consider dealing him before regression sets in, or trading him for a catcher with more proven production year over year.
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Most managers will hold Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cal Raleigh, James Wood and Seiya Suzuki, but if trade offers do come, consider them with a peek at ROS projections. Jacob Wilson is technically a rookie (though he had 92 MLB at-bats last season), and he's playing phenomenally with a .357 BA (.306 xBA). While THE BAT X has proven to be an accurate projection system, all models struggle more with rookies; however, Wilson's Barrel%, HardHit%, bat speed and exit velocity are in the 10th percentile or lower.
According to THE BAT X, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. With a value over $15, Nathan Eovaldi landed on the 15-day IL Sunday, so he's likely taking up an IL slot on your roster now. With a ROS projection of $20, Hunter Brown is a hold unless you're offered a can't-pass-up trade. Merrill Kelly, however, is 36 years old with a 3.78 ERA and 4.22 xERA. He's 5-2, but regression could be on the horizon. He's thrown his sinker 145 times (compared to his four-seamer 274 times), but it has yielded only a 4.3 Whiff% and a .421 xwOBA.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are deals to be made. For example, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on a tear, THE BAT X predicts Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gunnar Henderson will have higher ROS values. THE BAT X also projects Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. to finish stronger, but that trade could be harder to accomplish. This isn't to say offer PCA for Henderson today, but it's an example of how the two tables can be used together. Managers of catcher Adley Rutschman, who is batting .203 but with an xBA of .262, may be open to hearing offers, and his ROS value is a very high $18.90, according to THE BAT X. He hasn't lived up to expectations, but Rutschman's xwOBA of .353 is in the 74th percentile.
George Kirby is 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched. However, the BAT X projects that he'll improve, and this is one place where regression to the mean comes into play. Kirby has posted an ERA between 3.35 and 3.53 since 2022. It's unlikely, given past performance, that he'll continue to play so poorly. With such limited action this season, many of his Statcast numbers aren't valid yet, but managers may want to dump him after such a poor start, so see what you can get for the Seattle righty with an ROS value of $25.10 and a $45.30 differential.
Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Rafael Devers tops this list on Monday, and if you have him, look forward to a good start to the week. Marcelo Mayer, who qualifies at SS and 3B, was called up to the majors with Bregman on the IL. He should be available in many leagues, and if you need someone to stream, you could take a flier on Mayer. He's played well defensively since entering Boston's lineup, and his .243 xBA is higher than his .200 BA. He may have an adjustment period, but he's a solid prospect with potential.
Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.
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Wilson's name comes up again here, which makes sense, given he's a fade or trade candidate. His xwOBA is much lower than his wOBA and, again, could mean regression is coming. The Dodgers' rookie second baseman and shortstop, Hyeseong Kim, has only 49 plate appearances this year and is batting .413 (xBA: .305), and he's not heavily rostered. But beware of the differential between his wOBA and xwOBA. He'll need more at-bats before projections and Statcast numbers become valid, so keep an eye on his performance and if he sees more opportunities on a loaded LA roster.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Juan Soto's slow start to the season has been well-documented, as have discussions about his expected statistics versus his actual performance. He'll be fine. Take a look at his Statcast numbers, and you'll see all red. Yankees' lefty first baseman and designated hitter, Ben Rice, is still available on waivers in some leagues and is underperforming his expected stats, which means you may have a chance to roster him. His Barrel%, HardHit%, average exit velocity, xSLG and xwOBA are all above the 90th percentile. Giancarlo Stanton is still on the 60-day IL, and manager Aaron Boone said he's unlikely to come off in the next week, so Rice still has a secure role (and likely will, though he could fall more into platoon territory with Stanton's return).
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Dodgers and Mets may be on this list every week, even when facing each other. LA's bats are out-of-this-world, but so is New York's pitching. The Mets have the best team ERA in the league at 2.85 and are the only team with a sub-3.00 ERA. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are 23rd in the league with a team ERA of 4.16.
THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens.
The best projected pitcher this week is Tarik Skubal, who is having a career year with a 2.26 ERA and an xERA of 2.32. He's dominating nearly every Statcast category and gets to face the Chicago White Sox this week. Truly, none of the names on this list should be a surprise, but Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily this season and carries an 8.47 ERA, though his xERA is 5.31 (better but still dismal). He's on the Marlins, though, which doesn't make it easy, and there are rumors of trade interest, despite his rough start.
At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Logan Webb (5-5, 2.82 ERA), who will face the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves this week. The aforementioned struggling Kirby could get right against the Orioles and Angels.
Based on matchups, THE BAT X suggests turning to the Yankees' and Marlins' bullpens for relievers to stream. Henriquez is barely rostered, 3-1 and has a 2.20 ERA on the season with K and Whiff percentages in the 934d and 98th percentile, respectively.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Gunnar Henderson: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)