Latest news with #THEBATX
New York Times
15 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Ben Brown, stream Agustín Ramírez
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests adding Ben Brown and streaming Agustín Ramírez. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, Colton Cowser has thus far performed at a -$17.10 value, but THE BAT X expects him to have a rest-of-season value of $10.60. Cowser has only had 37 at-bats this season so far, so his Statcast numbers aren't validated yet, but they're trending toward red. While his .216 batting average and .275 OBP don't stand out, his xBA is .243 and his xwOBA is .337 (not spectacular but better), and he's hit three home runs so far. Last year, he finished with a .242 BA, a .321 OBP, 24 home runs and nine stolen bases in 499 at-bats. At age 25, he could improve this year, but it's too early to tell by how much. On this list, J.T. Realmuto, Luis Robert Jr. and Brenton Doyle have the highest predicted rest-of-season values but are relatively highly rostered. On the pitching side, Ben Brown (who has been on this list frequently) and Reese Olson (IL15) have the best projections for the remainder of the season, despite playing at -$18.50 and $2.70 levels, respectively. Brown is still available in many leagues, while Olson (even on the injured list) is more highly rostered. To date, Brown is 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA (4.23 xERA) in 63.2 innings pitched; however, his fastball velocity is in the 74th percentile, and his strikeout percentage is 27.7 (80th percentile). Additionally, he's in the 67th percentile or better in chase percentage, whiff percentage, walk rate and extension. He could certainly improve going forward. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. THE BAT X has suggested fading or trading Steven Kwan for weeks. In a previous iteration, Carty said of THE BAT X projection on Kwan, 'It just doesn't buy his power at all. He doesn't hit the ball hard; he doesn't hit the ball in the air much…. He has one of those extreme outlier profiles, though, where he has insane bat control, which is tougher to quantify, and maybe that just carries him beyond the projection. But all the Statcast metrics going into the projection just say he's got no power.' Advertisement Since then, Kwan's year-to-date value has dropped by over a dollar, but his ROS value has risen slightly. If you haven't traded him yet, it could be time. For players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso, you're looking for high-level players as returns. While these three have been playing great baseball, THE BAT X expects some regression. So, you could attempt to ship them for players who are also playing at a high level today and have a ROS value that matches PCA's, Raleigh's, and Alonso's YTD values. None of these players are drop candidates though. Alex Bregman, who has the only negative valuation for the remainder of the season, is highly rostered and on the IL but is nearing a return. Keep an eye on how he performs. His xBA, xSLG and xwOBA to date are all lower than his actual stats. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Kevin Gausman has a low YTD value and an even lower ROS value, so THE BAT X suggests ridding yourself of him now before it gets worse, maybe for someone on the trade targets list below. Through 76.2 IP, Gausman is 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA, which is serviceable. He relies heavily on his four-seamer (662) and split-finger (460), while sometimes turning to his slider (101). With a fastball velocity in the 52nd percentile, that strategy may not continue to work. Outside of Gausman, Kodai Senga and Merrill Kelly have performed relatively well but could be great trade bait, as THE BAT X expects regression. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are deals to be made. For example, maybe you think of shipping Kwan for Jazz Chisholm Jr., who just came off the IL and has performed below expectations but is on the hard-hitting Yankees with plenty of chances to score and bring batters in. While Chisholm's YTD value is far below Kwan's, his ROS value is superior. This isn't to say, 'Go make this trade today,' but instead to illustrate how to use the two lists in coordination. Advertisement Gunnar Henderson, whose YTD value increased by $2 over the last week, is another great player to target with a ROS valuation of $29.70. He's now hitting .265 with eight home runs and seven stolen bases. He also had a 54.7 hard-hit percentage, which is in the 96th percentile. Given his K% (26.4) and BB% (7.7), he needs to find more discipline at the plate, but if he does, he could fare much better going forward. As for pitchers, last week we discussed George Kirby, who tops this list again. Since then, his ERA has dropped from 11.42 to 6.53, and his xERA is 4.23. He has one win under his belt now and has pitched in only 20.2 innings. The rust continues to come off, and his fastball velocity (96.2 mph), K% (28.4) and BB% (4.5) are all above the 80th percentile in the league. He's still not performing as expected, so managers may be willing to let him go for a lesser return, and a ROS value of $25.10 from THE BAT X is promising. With negative YTD values, Cole Ragans, Spencer Strider and Dylan Cease may have managers willing to deal. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. On Tuesday, many of the San Francisco Giants could have a good game, including Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee, as they go against the Colorado Rockies. Marlins Catcher and first baseman Agustín Ramírez is available on many waiver wires and could have a big game Monday evening against Pittsburgh. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA. Aaron Judge, with his 'underperforming' yet still incredible .435 xwOBA, is obviously fine. While Hyeseong Kim appears on this list as an overperformer, he is a rookie with only 58 at-bats, and his Statcast information can't be validated yet, outside of his incredible 87th percentile sprint speed, which has enabled him to nab six stolen. He's on a loaded Dodgers' team, but is barely rostered and hitting .414 with a 1.029 OPS and two home runs. The rookie isn't playing every day yet, but he has made a solid case for increased usage. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. We spoke about Ben Rice last week, but he's still around 46% rostered (Yahoo), and his Statcast metrics are all red, except for his Whiff, K and BB rates. If he can improve in those categories, his breakout could be bigger than it is right now. Luis Rengifo, who has had bad luck over the past 30 days, according to his xwOBA, is Rice's foil. His metrics, across the board, look pretty terrible, but his Whiff and K rates are 70th-percentile or above. He's still in the lineup with a .206 average and only one home run, and while his xBA is .271, I still wouldn't chase him based on his lack of power in the metrics and a 36th-percentile sprint speed. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Dodgers are on the list every week it seems, regardless of the matchup, due to their impressive roster. The Yankees face Kansas City and Boston, both of which are in fourth place in their respective divisions. Chisholm Jr., Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger could have better-than-usual weeks. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Spencer Strider, who is also a trade target despite having a 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA. His xERA is not much better at 5.19. He's getting whiffs, but that's about it right now. Still, THE BAT X projects he'll improve, and he's at the top of the list this week. Tarik Skubal will likely always be on the top one-start pitchers list because he's nearly unstoppable, with a 2.16 ERA and strong Statcast metrics across the board. Going against the Orioles, he could dominate. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Chris Sale, who will face the Brewers (third place in the NL Central) and the lowly Rockies (12-53). Sale is 3-4 but with a 2.93 ERA. He's struggling with walks a little, but otherwise has been impressive with a 30.9 (!) K rate and 34.7 (!) Chase%. On this list, Griffin Canning is the most available on waivers and sports a 2.90 ERA with a 6-2 record. His expected stats are much worse than his actual stats, but this is a good week to start him against Washington and Tampa Bay. Based on matchups, the Mets' bullpen should perform well, but that's typical, as they have the best team ERA in the league at 2.85. The Cubs' Daniel Palencia has a 1.64 ERA and five saves. His strikeouts are great, but he needs to reduce his walks a bit. Still, he's around 47% rostered on Yahoo, so if he's available on your wire, consider grabbing him this week, as he faces the Phillies and Pirates. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Agustín Ramírez: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
New York Times
02-06-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Stream Ronny Henriquez, trade for Gunnar Henderson
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement The BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years, providing estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics such as exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and more. Another critical concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests streaming Miami Marlins reliever Ronny Henriquez and trading for Gunnar Henderson. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, Andrés Giménez, who is on the 10-day IL but on a rehab assignment, has a year-to-date value of -$6.40, but THE BAT X projects him to have a rest-of-season value of $11.10. Due to his injury and a .195 batting average in 142 plate appearances, he is available in some leagues and could help your roster as the season progresses. He has an xBA of .255, a sprint speed in the 84th percentile and nine stolen bases on the season. On this list, J.T. Realmuto and Luis Robert Jr. have the best projections for the rest of the season but carry higher rostered percentages. On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown and Reese Olson offer the best ROS values. Reese Olson is eligible to return from the 15-day IL but isn't quite ready yet, according to Tigers' manager A.J. Hinch. Still, if Olson was dropped in any of your leagues due to injury, now might be the time to add him. He's 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA (3.48 xERA), and his Whiff% (32.1) is in the 88th percentile, while his K rate (25.4) is in the 72nd. His changeup has a 50.5 Whiff% and a 30.9 PutAway%. Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Alex Bregman is on the 10-day IL but could face a longer stint. At this point, a trade is unlikely, so you might be stuck with him. Hunter Goodman has a ROS projected value of -$3.20 but qualifies as a catcher, where pickings are relatively slim. His .265 BA might be enticing, but his xBA is .239, and plenty of his Statcast numbers are in the blue, not red. If you have another catcher on your roster, consider dealing him before regression sets in, or trading him for a catcher with more proven production year over year. Advertisement Most managers will hold Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cal Raleigh, James Wood and Seiya Suzuki, but if trade offers do come, consider them with a peek at ROS projections. Jacob Wilson is technically a rookie (though he had 92 MLB at-bats last season), and he's playing phenomenally with a .357 BA (.306 xBA). While THE BAT X has proven to be an accurate projection system, all models struggle more with rookies; however, Wilson's Barrel%, HardHit%, bat speed and exit velocity are in the 10th percentile or lower. According to THE BAT X, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. With a value over $15, Nathan Eovaldi landed on the 15-day IL Sunday, so he's likely taking up an IL slot on your roster now. With a ROS projection of $20, Hunter Brown is a hold unless you're offered a can't-pass-up trade. Merrill Kelly, however, is 36 years old with a 3.78 ERA and 4.22 xERA. He's 5-2, but regression could be on the horizon. He's thrown his sinker 145 times (compared to his four-seamer 274 times), but it has yielded only a 4.3 Whiff% and a .421 xwOBA. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are deals to be made. For example, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on a tear, THE BAT X predicts Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gunnar Henderson will have higher ROS values. THE BAT X also projects Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. to finish stronger, but that trade could be harder to accomplish. This isn't to say offer PCA for Henderson today, but it's an example of how the two tables can be used together. Managers of catcher Adley Rutschman, who is batting .203 but with an xBA of .262, may be open to hearing offers, and his ROS value is a very high $18.90, according to THE BAT X. He hasn't lived up to expectations, but Rutschman's xwOBA of .353 is in the 74th percentile. George Kirby is 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched. However, the BAT X projects that he'll improve, and this is one place where regression to the mean comes into play. Kirby has posted an ERA between 3.35 and 3.53 since 2022. It's unlikely, given past performance, that he'll continue to play so poorly. With such limited action this season, many of his Statcast numbers aren't valid yet, but managers may want to dump him after such a poor start, so see what you can get for the Seattle righty with an ROS value of $25.10 and a $45.30 differential. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Rafael Devers tops this list on Monday, and if you have him, look forward to a good start to the week. Marcelo Mayer, who qualifies at SS and 3B, was called up to the majors with Bregman on the IL. He should be available in many leagues, and if you need someone to stream, you could take a flier on Mayer. He's played well defensively since entering Boston's lineup, and his .243 xBA is higher than his .200 BA. He may have an adjustment period, but he's a solid prospect with potential. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Advertisement Wilson's name comes up again here, which makes sense, given he's a fade or trade candidate. His xwOBA is much lower than his wOBA and, again, could mean regression is coming. The Dodgers' rookie second baseman and shortstop, Hyeseong Kim, has only 49 plate appearances this year and is batting .413 (xBA: .305), and he's not heavily rostered. But beware of the differential between his wOBA and xwOBA. He'll need more at-bats before projections and Statcast numbers become valid, so keep an eye on his performance and if he sees more opportunities on a loaded LA roster. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Juan Soto's slow start to the season has been well-documented, as have discussions about his expected statistics versus his actual performance. He'll be fine. Take a look at his Statcast numbers, and you'll see all red. Yankees' lefty first baseman and designated hitter, Ben Rice, is still available on waivers in some leagues and is underperforming his expected stats, which means you may have a chance to roster him. His Barrel%, HardHit%, average exit velocity, xSLG and xwOBA are all above the 90th percentile. Giancarlo Stanton is still on the 60-day IL, and manager Aaron Boone said he's unlikely to come off in the next week, so Rice still has a secure role (and likely will, though he could fall more into platoon territory with Stanton's return). Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Dodgers and Mets may be on this list every week, even when facing each other. LA's bats are out-of-this-world, but so is New York's pitching. The Mets have the best team ERA in the league at 2.85 and are the only team with a sub-3.00 ERA. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are 23rd in the league with a team ERA of 4.16. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Tarik Skubal, who is having a career year with a 2.26 ERA and an xERA of 2.32. He's dominating nearly every Statcast category and gets to face the Chicago White Sox this week. Truly, none of the names on this list should be a surprise, but Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily this season and carries an 8.47 ERA, though his xERA is 5.31 (better but still dismal). He's on the Marlins, though, which doesn't make it easy, and there are rumors of trade interest, despite his rough start. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Logan Webb (5-5, 2.82 ERA), who will face the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves this week. The aforementioned struggling Kirby could get right against the Orioles and Angels. Based on matchups, THE BAT X suggests turning to the Yankees' and Marlins' bullpens for relievers to stream. Henriquez is barely rostered, 3-1 and has a 2.20 ERA on the season with K and Whiff percentages in the 934d and 98th percentile, respectively. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Gunnar Henderson: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
New York Times
26-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Brenton Doyle, stream or start Trevor Larnach
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's cheat sheet suggests adding Brenton Doyle and Tyler Stephenson, trading Tyler Mahle, streaming Trevor Larnach and targeting Adley Rutschman and Marcus Semien in trades. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a replacement-level starter in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, at the top of this list, Royce Lewis has a year-to-date value of -$22.20, but for the rest of the season, he projects a value of $4.70. The differential of $26.90 is the reason for his No. 1 spot on the list, as he's likely to be available due to poor performance thus far. While his .155 batting average and .210 expected BA aren't inspiring, THE BAT X suggests he'll improve. The best (likely) available candidates on this list are J.T. Realmuto, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar, with the highest ROS value. Phillies catcher Realmuto is at a valuable position and less likely to be available on waivers, but if someone dropped him, his xBA of .267 (compared to his actual BA of .232) and 80th-percentile sprint speed are promising, especially at a position where speed is at a premium. On the pitching side, Ben Brown and Gavin Williams take the top two spots for the second week in a row, and Matthew Boyd has moved up to the third spot. Boyd and Drew Rasmussen have the best ROS value at $13 and $9.20, respectively, meaning THE BAT X thinks that of the waiver targets on this list, these pitchers will have the best results going forward. Rasmussen is 3-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 52 innings pitched; his walk rate is also in the 81st percentile at 5.9%. Like the waiver wire, the following list represents players to either fade completely or trade. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have performed phenomenally thus far, but THE BAT X projects that their rest-of-season value will decrease by $24 and $18.80, respectively. Still, you only want to trade these players for top-level, proven players with better ROS value. Advertisement Alex Bregman (on the 10-day IL) tops this list and has a negative ROS value, so he's someone you may want to ship soon. Again, $0 represents the threshold for a starting caliber player. While Bregman is hitting .299, his xBA is .255, he's not fast, and his K rate is up to 18.6% this year vs. 13.6% last year. His HardHit% is nearly 8 percentage points higher than last year, representing his career high, so some regression can be expected. You'll have to wait until he's healthy, but trading him should be on your radar. Depending on your league and who is available on waivers, Hunter Goodman, with a YTD value of $13.70 and ROS value in the negative, could be a drop candidate, but likely only in shallower leagues. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle retake the top spots this week, but in reverse order. Most fantasy managers probably hold Eovaldi, Hunter Brown and Max Fried, but Mahle could be a prime trade candidate. He's performing at a high value of $20.10 but is only valued at $2.40 for the rest of the season. His strikeout and Whiff rates are lingering around 25%, and while his ERA is 1.80 (5-2), his xERA is 3.87. Look to the trade targets below, and see if you can ship Mahle for an ace while he's playing well and the ace isn't. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. The players on this list haven't performed as well to date as THE BAT X projects them to for the rest of the season. Adley Rutschman (DTD) and Marcus Semien stand out on this list. Both players have fallen well below their expectations, but THE BAT X thinks they can rebound, and their owners may be ready for new blood. Semien's BA of .176 is deplorable, and his xBA of .231 isn't much better, but even with an OBP of .266. I'd only acquire him if you have another worthy second baseman on your roster, but he hit over 20 HR in the past four seasons, so a rebound could be coming. Rutschman's Statcast numbers are much better than Semien's, which is partially why his ROS value is higher, too. His K rate is only 16%, his walk rate is 12%, and his xBA of .268 is respectable, while his current batting average of .211 isn't. See if anyone is tiring of holding and waiting for Rutschman to produce. When it comes to the pitchers, Tarik Skubal is off the table. Bryce Miller (on the 15-day IL) could return soon but also may need surgery during the offseason. THE BAT X thinks he'll improve, but he's a risky target. Cole Ragans is also on IL, but Dylan Cease is intriguing. He has a 4.58 ERA but a 3.56 xERA, 29.1 K rate, 32.9 Whiff% and 32.0 Chase%. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Minnesota's designated hitter and backup outfielder, Trevor Larnach, appears on this list frequently. Outfielders Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner are on IL (though Buxton could return soon), as is the backup DH Luke Keaschall, so Larnach will have opportunities this week and is available on many waivers. He's batting .247 with a slightly higher xBA (.255) and has hit seven home runs this season. His Statcast metrics are average, but average isn't terrible for a player you can pick up and stream if needed. These are hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Advertisement This is where regression to the mean comes into play. Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman tops this list for the second week in a row, and since last week, his wOBA and xwOBA have fallen. Additionally, he hit only .190 last year in 211 at-bats, so he could regress. His HH% is in the 78th percentile, but his Chase% (36.2) and Whiff% (33.3) are below the 10th percentile, while his K and BB rates are below the 30th percentile. If you can trade him for another catcher with better career numbers, consider doing it now. Based on wOBA and xwOBA, the players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days. You can likely ignore Juan Soto at the top of this list, as no one is trading, fading or benching him. But, if he's on your roster, don't worry, his xwOBA is .141 higher than his wOBA, and his Statcast numbers are nearly all red, so he should return to his usual self soon. Boston right-fielder Wilyer Abreu, who has already hit 12 home runs in 176 at-bats (he hit 15 in 399 last year), is for real. According to his expected stats, he could be having an even better season. If you have him, believe in him. If you don't, maybe you can get him for a player ranked higher in the preseason who hasn't lived up to his billing. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Yankees and Dodgers at the top of this list are no surprise, but the Baltimore Orioles and Diamondbacks are a little more interesting. Look for Orioles Rustchman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn to have better weeks than usual. If you have Diamondbacks on your team, the same goes for them. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected one-start pitcher this week is Bryan Woo with a projected ERA of 2.99 against the Twins. On the season, Woo is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA and a 3.06 xERA. His K rate is over 20 percent, and his walk rate is only 3.2% (99th percentile). Good on you if you have Woo on your roster. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Jameson Taillon, facing the Rockies and Reds. THE BAT X projects his ERA will be 3.05 this week with a 1.01 WHIP, which is better than his season-long ERA of 4.13 and WHIP of 1.09. All the players on this list should be started in weekly lineups. Based on matchups, the bullpens for the Cubs, Mariners, Mets, Padres and Giants could be set up for success this week. The Cubs' Daniel Palencia is 0-1 with two saves this year and a 2.04 ERA in 17.2 IP. Compared to last year, his K (24.6 this year vs. 23.2 last year) and BB (10.1 vs. 17.4) rates have improved. MLB saves leaders Seattle's Andrés Muñoz and San Diego's Robert Suarez could have incredible weeks. They're not on waivers anywhere (like Palencia), but if you have them, expect continued greatness. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Trevor Larnach: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Explaining THE BAT X projections: Using advanced metrics for fantasy baseball and betting
THE BAT X is a sophisticated baseball projection system I have developed over the past 15+ years using advanced statistical techniques and methodology. I've worked with and learned from several analysts, many of whom are now working or making decisions in front offices, meaning this system uses the types of techniques used by actual MLB teams. Advertisement It offers a comprehensive, data-rich approach to projecting baseball performance. It is grounded in statistical rigor and aligned with professional analytical practices. It is regularly found to be the most accurate projection system available and has proven successful in my leagues and for many others. Projections like those from THE BAT X are not definitive predictions; they represent the weighted average of all possible outcomes. They are informed estimates based on a multitude of factors. A key concept here is regression to the mean: Players performing above their typical level are expected to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This principle helps prevent overreactions to short-term performance spikes or slumps. While we may want to believe the young player who gets off to a strong start is completely for real (and he certainly could be), history tells us the more likely outcome is he gets worse going forward. THE BAT X uses a wide range of metrics, including advanced Statcast metrics like barrels and exit velocity, to help inform its projections. It also considers a wide range of contextual factors in addition to player talent indicators, such as ballpark effects, weather conditions, umpire tendencies, defensive alignments and a whole lot more, to provide a comprehensive view of the variables influencing player performance over any given time. THE BAT X isn't just comprehensive — it's consistently among the most accurate projection systems in the industry. In FantasyPros' 2024 accuracy competition, which evaluated over a dozen projection systems based on real-life player results, THE BAT X ranked as the single most accurate original projection system for the fifth straight year. No projection system is perfect and all will have 'misses,' but THE BAT X is as accurate as they come. (Photo by Al Bello / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Ezequiel Tovar, stream Jordan Beck and more
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years. Advertisement This week's iteration suggests adding a now-healthy Ezequiel Tovar, where available, and streaming Jordan Beck based on the pitchers he'll face this week. And there's more — so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed league format. For first-time readers, we compare year-to-date value (expressed as dollars, where $0 would represent a replacement-level player) against their projected rest-of-season value. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know. For example, Ezequiel Tovar, no longer on the IL, tops this list with a current value of -$13.80 but a rest-of-season value of $13.40. He's not highly available, but you'd be wise to check on his waiver status in your league. Against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 17, he went 5-for-6, including a home run and two RBI. On the season, he's batting .263, but his expected batting average is .291, and his K rate is the lowest of his career at 17.5%. On the pitching side, Chicago Cub Matthew Boyd has been on this list and continues to have tremendous rest-of-season value at $16.30. He's 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and the lowest walk rate of his career at 6.1%. His changeup and slider have Whiff rates of 36.7% and 34.8%, respectively, though his four-seamer is just 19.2%. Teammate Ben Brown (starting Monday) tops the list with his $22.50 differential. Over his last two games, he's given up five earned runs, but against the Brewers on May 2, he allowed only four hits and no earned runs over six innings pitched. Like the waiver wire, the following list represents players to either fade completely or trade if their rest-of-season value remains high. Arizona's Geraldo Perdomo tops this list for the second consecutive week, with a projected rest-of-season value of $-1.10. It may be hard to believe that Perdomo could drop so far with the season he's having (.300 BA, 5 HR, 11 SB), but THE BAT X projection system doesn't like what it's seeing. There's no need to drop him now, but watch to see if he slumps anytime soon or think of trading him for a player with a rest-of-season value near Perdomo's current value. Advertisement Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman are two other players performing incredibly but with significant drops in their rest-of-season value. If you drafted Crow-Armstrong, great work. But at his height, you could try to flip him for a player with a higher rest-of-season projected value, but maybe watch for a slight decline first. Last week, we saw some pushback on Kwan's low rest-of-season projected value, but his year-to-date value has dropped from $23.70 last week to $18.40 this week. Carty said of THE BAT X projection on Kwan, 'It just doesn't buy his power at all. He doesn't hit the ball hard; he doesn't hit the ball in the air much. He's in the 8th percentile in Barrel%, 10th percentile in exit velocity on flyballs and 2nd percentile max exit velocity…. And the career-high .345 BABIP driving his batting average up is likely to come down, and his Sprint Speed has fallen off considerably this year, too. He has one of those extreme outlier profiles, though, where he has insane bat control, which is tougher to quantify, and maybe that just carries him beyond the projection. But all the Statcast metrics going into the projection just say he's got no power.' According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Nathan Eovaldi, Max Fried and Hunter Brown all fall in the trade-bait category. They all have a year-to-date value over $35 and rest-of-season values above $15. Given the projected decline in value you could flip them for pitchers with ROS values nearer to these pitchers' YTD values. Seth Lugo recently hit the 15-day IL and has a negative ROS value, so he's a drop candidate, as is Merrill Kelly (given there's a pitcher with better projections on waivers). Kelly is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA but an xERA of 4.11. The most concerning stats are his 45.7 Hard Hit rate (21st percentile) and 91.9 mph fastball velocity (16th percentile). Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These players have underperformed and have ROS values that are much higher than their YTD values. It's probably no surprise that Yordan Alvarez tops the list with his differential of $35.40. He landed on the 10-day IL on May 5, and Manager Joe Espada said he's improving but still feels the muscle strain in his right hand. Tread carefully, but you may be able to get him at a low price right now. To date, Alvarez has a .210 BA, but he's 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 98th in bat speed, 87th in BB%, 79th in xwOBA, and 72nd in K%. It's probably too late to get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a trade, as he's heating up lately, but Ketel Marte has a YTD value of only $0.10 and ROS value of 22.7. He could come at a good price. He's hitting a respectable .273, but his xBA is .291, and he has 6 HR on the season. His 14.1 BB% and 13.0 K% are also encouraging. As for pitchers, it's hard to imagine managers trading away many of the pitchers on this list, specifically Tarik Skubal. However, Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert have not yet met expectations, and THE BAT X projects a much better ROS. If you have Eovaldi (from the Fade or Trade list above), shop him for one of these four pitchers, who have performed worse than him but have higher projections for the rest of the year. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Jordan Beck's name appears on this list often and is worth starting this week based on THE BAT X projections. His BA of .264 is very near his xBA of .266, but with several favorable matchups, he could hit much better this week. He's above the 80th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Launch Angle Sweet Spot percentage and bat speed. He also has a respectable 47.6 HH% (73rd percentile). He's also available on many waiver wires. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. Advertisement This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Avoid falling for the players on this list who are available on waivers, and don't worry about LA Dodger Freddie Freeman. He'll be fine. He's batting .371 with an xBA of .317, and his Statcast numbers are solid, aside from bat speed, which is a dismal 69.2 mph (14th percentile) and sprint speed (14th percentile). Colorado's Hunter Goodman tops this section for the second consecutive week. He's hitting .299 (up from .288 last week), but his xBA is only .245. Ship him now, or watch for more signs of decline and act accordingly. Catchers are hard to come by, but his career batting average is only .231. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Many players on this list are highly rostered or shouldn't be rostered, but the Chicago White Sox's Andrew Vaughn is available and could be worth a wager. He's only batting .184 this season, but his xBA is much higher at .248. If you're desperate, or if you have a bench spot, look his way. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Philadelphia Phillies get the Rockies and A's this week, so Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott could surge. Yankee Aaron Judge, already one of the best bats in the league, could have a tremendous week against the Texas Rangers and Colorado, and while New York's Paul Goldschmidt is on the hitters to fade or trade list, maybe wait until next week to act on it, as he's set up to do well this week. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Chris Sale (also a trade target). Sale is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA (3.36 xERA) but will face the Washington Nationals (21-27). He's thrown his slider 461 times this year (which is more than he's thrown his four-seamer) and for good reason. It's his best pitch and comes with a 43.2 Whiff% and 26.6 PutAway%. Tarik Skubal is at the top of the list of two-start pitchers. Getting two starts from Skubal in one week is a dream, and he's facing St. Louis and Cleveland. The same goes for Hunter Brown. Sonny Gray is 4-1 but with a 4.50 ERA and 4.52 xERA. Still, he's bound to improve and lower his ERA closer to his career number of 3.53. This week, THE BAT X suggests considering benching Jesús Luzardo and Corbin Burnes based on their projections. These pitchers have a 2.00 and 2.56 ERA, respectively, but while Luzardo has a solid 3.19 xERA, Burnes has a 4.28 xERA. Look at your roster, and see if you're brave enough to bench one of these two. The Cleveland Guardians' bullpen could be in for a good week based on matchups. Cade Smith is 1-1 this year with three saves. He has a solid ERA of 2.61 and an xERA of 2.49. Last year, he finished with a 1.91 ERA in 74 games. He could be available on waivers, and if he is, he might be a great add this week and for the year. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Jordan Beck: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)
