THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Brenton Doyle, stream or start Trevor Larnach

New York Times

26-05-2025

Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions.
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THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
This week's cheat sheet suggests adding Brenton Doyle and Tyler Stephenson, trading Tyler Mahle, streaming Trevor Larnach and targeting Adley Rutschman and Marcus Semien in trades. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it.
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a replacement-level starter in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.
For example, at the top of this list, Royce Lewis has a year-to-date value of -$22.20, but for the rest of the season, he projects a value of $4.70. The differential of $26.90 is the reason for his No. 1 spot on the list, as he's likely to be available due to poor performance thus far. While his .155 batting average and .210 expected BA aren't inspiring, THE BAT X suggests he'll improve. The best (likely) available candidates on this list are J.T. Realmuto, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar, with the highest ROS value. Phillies catcher Realmuto is at a valuable position and less likely to be available on waivers, but if someone dropped him, his xBA of .267 (compared to his actual BA of .232) and 80th-percentile sprint speed are promising, especially at a position where speed is at a premium.
On the pitching side, Ben Brown and Gavin Williams take the top two spots for the second week in a row, and Matthew Boyd has moved up to the third spot. Boyd and Drew Rasmussen have the best ROS value at $13 and $9.20, respectively, meaning THE BAT X thinks that of the waiver targets on this list, these pitchers will have the best results going forward. Rasmussen is 3-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 52 innings pitched; his walk rate is also in the 81st percentile at 5.9%.
Like the waiver wire, the following list represents players to either fade completely or trade. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have performed phenomenally thus far, but THE BAT X projects that their rest-of-season value will decrease by $24 and $18.80, respectively. Still, you only want to trade these players for top-level, proven players with better ROS value.
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Alex Bregman (on the 10-day IL) tops this list and has a negative ROS value, so he's someone you may want to ship soon. Again, $0 represents the threshold for a starting caliber player. While Bregman is hitting .299, his xBA is .255, he's not fast, and his K rate is up to 18.6% this year vs. 13.6% last year. His HardHit% is nearly 8 percentage points higher than last year, representing his career high, so some regression can be expected. You'll have to wait until he's healthy, but trading him should be on your radar. Depending on your league and who is available on waivers, Hunter Goodman, with a YTD value of $13.70 and ROS value in the negative, could be a drop candidate, but likely only in shallower leagues.
According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle retake the top spots this week, but in reverse order. Most fantasy managers probably hold Eovaldi, Hunter Brown and Max Fried, but Mahle could be a prime trade candidate. He's performing at a high value of $20.10 but is only valued at $2.40 for the rest of the season. His strikeout and Whiff rates are lingering around 25%, and while his ERA is 1.80 (5-2), his xERA is 3.87. Look to the trade targets below, and see if you can ship Mahle for an ace while he's playing well and the ace isn't.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. The players on this list haven't performed as well to date as THE BAT X projects them to for the rest of the season. Adley Rutschman (DTD) and Marcus Semien stand out on this list. Both players have fallen well below their expectations, but THE BAT X thinks they can rebound, and their owners may be ready for new blood. Semien's BA of .176 is deplorable, and his xBA of .231 isn't much better, but even with an OBP of .266. I'd only acquire him if you have another worthy second baseman on your roster, but he hit over 20 HR in the past four seasons, so a rebound could be coming.
Rutschman's Statcast numbers are much better than Semien's, which is partially why his ROS value is higher, too. His K rate is only 16%, his walk rate is 12%, and his xBA of .268 is respectable, while his current batting average of .211 isn't. See if anyone is tiring of holding and waiting for Rutschman to produce.
When it comes to the pitchers, Tarik Skubal is off the table. Bryce Miller (on the 15-day IL) could return soon but also may need surgery during the offseason. THE BAT X thinks he'll improve, but he's a risky target. Cole Ragans is also on IL, but Dylan Cease is intriguing. He has a 4.58 ERA but a 3.56 xERA, 29.1 K rate, 32.9 Whiff% and 32.0 Chase%.
Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Minnesota's designated hitter and backup outfielder, Trevor Larnach, appears on this list frequently. Outfielders Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner are on IL (though Buxton could return soon), as is the backup DH Luke Keaschall, so Larnach will have opportunities this week and is available on many waivers. He's batting .247 with a slightly higher xBA (.255) and has hit seven home runs this season. His Statcast metrics are average, but average isn't terrible for a player you can pick up and stream if needed.
These are hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.
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This is where regression to the mean comes into play. Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman tops this list for the second week in a row, and since last week, his wOBA and xwOBA have fallen. Additionally, he hit only .190 last year in 211 at-bats, so he could regress. His HH% is in the 78th percentile, but his Chase% (36.2) and Whiff% (33.3) are below the 10th percentile, while his K and BB rates are below the 30th percentile. If you can trade him for another catcher with better career numbers, consider doing it now.
Based on wOBA and xwOBA, the players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days. You can likely ignore Juan Soto at the top of this list, as no one is trading, fading or benching him. But, if he's on your roster, don't worry, his xwOBA is .141 higher than his wOBA, and his Statcast numbers are nearly all red, so he should return to his usual self soon.
Boston right-fielder Wilyer Abreu, who has already hit 12 home runs in 176 at-bats (he hit 15 in 399 last year), is for real. According to his expected stats, he could be having an even better season. If you have him, believe in him. If you don't, maybe you can get him for a player ranked higher in the preseason who hasn't lived up to his billing.
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Yankees and Dodgers at the top of this list are no surprise, but the Baltimore Orioles and Diamondbacks are a little more interesting. Look for Orioles Rustchman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn to have better weeks than usual. If you have Diamondbacks on your team, the same goes for them.
THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens.
The best projected one-start pitcher this week is Bryan Woo with a projected ERA of 2.99 against the Twins. On the season, Woo is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA and a 3.06 xERA. His K rate is over 20 percent, and his walk rate is only 3.2% (99th percentile). Good on you if you have Woo on your roster.
At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Jameson Taillon, facing the Rockies and Reds. THE BAT X projects his ERA will be 3.05 this week with a 1.01 WHIP, which is better than his season-long ERA of 4.13 and WHIP of 1.09. All the players on this list should be started in weekly lineups.
Based on matchups, the bullpens for the Cubs, Mariners, Mets, Padres and Giants could be set up for success this week. The Cubs' Daniel Palencia is 0-1 with two saves this year and a 2.04 ERA in 17.2 IP. Compared to last year, his K (24.6 this year vs. 23.2 last year) and BB (10.1 vs. 17.4) rates have improved. MLB saves leaders Seattle's Andrés Muñoz and San Diego's Robert Suarez could have incredible weeks. They're not on waivers anywhere (like Palencia), but if you have them, expect continued greatness.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Trevor Larnach: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)