Knights must defy grim Origin stat to revive season
Newcastle will need to defy the equal-worst State of Origin period record of modern times to kickstart their ailing NRL season and ease pressure on Adam O'Brien.
Heading into round 12, the Knights and Manly had a league-worst 20 per cent win record in Origin-affected matches since 2016.
Queensland fullback Kalyn Ponga will miss Saturday's clash with understrength Penrith in Bathurst in the Knights' only change forced by Origin.
Newcastle have lost both games that Ponga has missed ahead of past Origin games, though have won three when he has been rested after Maroons appearances.
The Knights can also expect to be without Origin representatives for the second game of the series, held four days after their round-15 clash with the Sydney Roosters.
O'Brien has shifted Fletcher Sharpe from five-eighth to fullback.
The under-fire coach said Ponga's absence would prompt the Knights, already this season's worst attacking side by the numbers, to play "a lot less expansive".
"I anticipate we'll get Fletch in and around on the ball a lot more, he's a runner more than a passer," he said.
Even Ponga has been unable to spark the Knights this season, producing try assists in only three of 10 games.
O'Brien said his side could sometimes rely too heavily on their star fullback, and that his absence would be a test.
"Over-reliance? Yeah, you could agree with that," he said.
"He's a quality player and most players rely on their best strike weapons. But he's not with us this week so we have to adjust."
Making the task more difficult, the Panthers are the only side O'Brien has not defeated since taking charge in 2020, though the Knights did draw with Penrith that season.
Penrith are missing five players to Origin duty - the equal most of any team - but memorably defeated the Knights when they rested a slew of players after Origin II in 2023.
The four-time reigning premiers have slipped to 15th this season, and O'Brien felt both sides were similarly depleted given the Knights are missing Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew and Jacob Saifiti to injury.
"It sort of levels things out a little bit," he said.
"(The Panthers) stick to their structures really well. I don't expect them to change too much. They're a very good side at finding space in your defensive line."
O'Brien felt confident he had the support of the Knights' management regardless of the result on Saturday, when the Knights risk losing an eighth game in nine outings.
"I've got good, strong support from the board. They understand the situation we're in with our depth and the injuries," he said.
"That pressure and expectation comes with the job. I'm used to it now. We want results and I understand that our supporters and sponsors want results as well.
"But I can't get fixated on that narrative, I've just got to focus on getting today right and being really committed to fighting our way out with the players."
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Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
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The Age
an hour ago
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This perfect NSW play shows just how much trouble Queensland are in
The first job as the half, as Cleary did to Daly Cherry-Evans, is to target your opposite number and make him commit to you defensively. You've got the ball in two hands, and you are just eye balling that three-defender and charging at him. You don't give him any other option but to commit to tackling you. Once you feel him lock on, then your centre runs that really strong line angling from outside in. For NSW in Origin I, it was Stephen Crichton. For me in 2003, it was Matt Gidley. I call it throwing the bait out with that angled run between the defending half and centre. You throw the double pump – which is your dummy to the centre – and it's the only time I ever premeditated who I was going to pass to. I always knew I'd be going out the back. Do this quickly enough and the defensive winger is stranded with a two-on-one. Zac Lomax cruised over untouched a few weeks ago. Twenty-two years ago, my fullback Anthony Minichiello used his footwork to do the same. The key to it all is making the defence think that you as a playmaker are going to run. That you're not even thinking about the pass. The quicker you get across and commit the three-man, the quicker you have his centre – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow or Brent Tate – flying in. The only way to defend this play is for the winger to be coming up and nailing your fullback, but that's a lot easier said than done. And it's a thing of beauty when you get it right. How do Queensland stop the best NSW team in years? As for the task ahead of the Maroons, there's rain around in Perth and when I visited the stadium on Monday night, it was quite a dewy surface – even when it was dry. So the game plan, then, becomes about getting out of your own end with dummy-half running, short passes and a strong kicking game. That's exactly where NSW dominated Origin I. Even with the loss of Mitchell Moses in the halves and Mitch Barnett up front, this is still a very stable side. Jarome Luai comes straight in alongside Cleary, who he knows better than any other player in rugby league, while Stefano Utoikamanu has been around Origin camps now for a few years. This is one of the most well-balanced NSW teams I've seen in a long time, and with an average age of 27 you'd like to think they'll be together for a few series to come. Queensland, on the other hand, have made four changes, among them dropping their halfback and captain. Wednesday is a huge night for Tom Dearden with so much extra responsibility and pressure as he trades the No.14 jersey for the No.7. I think Cam Munster and Kalyn Ponga will end up doing 90 per cent of Queensland's long kicking down their left edge. The big question mark for Dearden is the short kicking game. I really haven't seen him do too much of it for the Cowboys. His biggest job, though, is to unlock Munster's running game, and in turn Munster has to bring Ponga onto the ball. Naming Cameron as captain is a masterstroke for mine. 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I'd love to see NSW use their edges – Angus Crichton and Latrell Mitchell on the left, and Liam Martin and Stephen Crichton on the right – once they hit their own 40-metre line when edge defence can be passive. For Queensland to challenge the Blues, they need to do the same and throw caution to the wind. Munster and Ponga need to take some chances as the Maroons approach halfway, because they can obviously trouble any defence. But the risk and reward of chancing your arm is such a fine line, particularly if a side is down on confidence. Taking those risks is so much easier with momentum and I expect Grant will be looking to run at every opportunity given his quiet game a few weeks ago and the need for ruck speed. And again, that's all about the forward battle. Loading Gorden Tallis always got into me with his favourite saying, 'forwards win the game, the backs decide by how much'. That's even more important in Origin games. 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