Summer means different things to different people
Last year was the hottest in history, although I can't say it felt that way from my corner of east Perthshire. This spring takes a record: the driest yet, which feels much more accurate when I look at my ultra-needy sweet peas and drooping chocolate cosmos. Warm weather is subjective, as my Luxembourgish boyfriend likes to tell me every time I open the curtains and exclaim that 15C is a beautiful morning. For him, the mercury must be at least 10C higher, but on canvas there is no room to argue.
Summer captivated the impressionists, who daubed it hazily over landscapes of sea and shadow. You know what you're getting with Monet and Renoir, their genteel boat parties and bonneted ladies. Golden fields are
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The Independent
6 hours ago
- The Independent
Farmers' harvest in limbo after UK endures driest spring in nearly 70 years
British farmers are bracing for potentially disastrous harvests following the hottest spring on record, compounded by the driest conditions seen in decades, new analysis reveals. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) warns that climate change is already having a "devastating" impact on farmers, food security and shopping bills, and that recent weather extremes will negatively impact the upcoming harvest. The warning comes as concerns mount that the Government will cut funding for sustainable farming in the upcoming spending review. Farmers and environmentalists warn that such cuts would undermine efforts to restore nature, build resilience to climate shocks, and support rural communities. Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, said this year's arable harvest was "on a knife edge" and stressed the need for funding to build resilience. Experts say that nature-friendly farming measures, such as promoting healthy soils and boosting natural predators of crop pests, can significantly enhance agriculture 's resilience to climate extremes. Mr Lines, who farms in Cambridgeshire, said: 'Months of dry weather have left my crops stressed, with their yield potential now capped even if we get a good bit of rain. 'This is what farming in a changing climate looks like.' And he said: 'It's wreaking havoc with my ability to plan and many farmers are now facing yet more financial losses this harvest, just as support for nature-friendly farming is being called into question. 'Nature-friendly farming is the backbone of rural resilience. Cutting funding now won't save money; it will cost us all in the long run,' he warned. The UK has experienced its hottest spring in records dating back to the 19th century, and its driest in more than 50 years with rainfall at just 40 per cent of average levels. England suffered the driest three months from March to May in more than 100 years, Met Office figures show. The north-west of England is already in drought, and the Environment Agency has warned of the risk of more widespread drought without sustained rainfall. Analysis from ECIU estimates the production of the main arable crops – wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape – could once again be near all-time lows, following the third-worst harvest on record last year after the extreme rainfall in winter 2023/2024. The assessment draws on the most recent crop development survey from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), which identified a major decline in crop conditions due to the dry spring, reducing yield potential despite recent rainfall. It looks at three scenarios, reflecting what might happen with rainfall in the coming weeks. If crop condition is maintained at current levels, yields would be in line with last year, leading to a worse harvest than 2024, due to fewer acres of oilseed rape and spring barley planted outweighing an increase in wheat, and making 2025 the second-worst harvest in records dating back to the 1980s. If rain helps crop conditions improve and yields recover to the 10-year average, the UK harvest would be the seventh-worst on record, the ECIU estimates. And if crop condition continues to decline and yields are equivalent to 2020 – the worst harvest so far since the detailed records began in 1984 – this year could become the worst harvest on record. Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said: 'Climate change is already having a devastating impact on UK farming and our collective food security, pushing up shopping bills and leaving many farmers at the end of their tether. 'Although it's too early to tell what the true impact will be of this record-breaking dry spring, we know enough to conclude that it will have had a negative impact.' He said scientists were clear warmer springs were a feature of climate change, making the impact of a dry spring more severe, while extreme wet winters were also being fuelled by rising global temperatures. Many crops were hit by extreme rainfall in England last September and October, just as winter crops should have been drilled, delaying them to the spring and making them more vulnerable to the recent dry, warm weather. 'In this volatile context, the outcome of the spending review next week will be a crucial moment for farming in this country, and whether the Government realises what's at stake for UK farming and food security in a rapidly changing climate,' Mr Lancaster said.
BBC News
7 hours ago
- BBC News
Derek Brockway: Could AI weather forecasting cost me my job?
Weather forecasts play a huge role in our daily lives. They help us to decide how we get to work, if we need an umbrella and when to hang out the washing. For industries like farming, shipping, aviation and renewable energy, accurate forecasts are essential.I've been presenting the weather on the BBC for nearly 30 years. Over that time, I've witnessed how our changing climate is bringing more extreme and intense weather is so important to keep improving the way we predict the weather, and scientists are exploring how AI could make forecasting more accurate, efficient, and faster than ever before. In some countries, broadcasters have even begun to experiment with AI-generated weather does all this mean that forecasters like me could soon be out of a job? Traditionally, weather forecasting relies on complex numerical weather prediction models which require vast amounts of data and supercomputers - like the ones used by the Met Office. But the Met Office is now working with experts from the Alan Turing Institute, the UK's national centre for data science and AI, to build a new global forecasting system powered by AI. One of their models, called FastNet, uses machine learning to improve prediction Kirstine Dale, Chief AI Officer at the Met Office, said it had the potential to revolutionise forecasting. "AI is phenomenally fast - not just a bit faster, but tens of thousands of times faster," she told me. "That means it can produce up to date forecasts with a fraction of the computational cost and carbon dioxide."She said AI could also produce "hyper-localised" forecasts, "potentially offering more up to date forecasts tailored to your postcode".Forecasts driven by AI could also help to mitigate against the impacts of storms, floods and heatwaves by providing earlier and more accurate warnings of severe weather. But there are challenges - especially in predicting rare or extreme weather events. "The past is no longer a reliable indicator of the future," said Prof Dale."So we need traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to explore how the climate may change and generate recalibrated datasets. "These recalibrated datasets of future climates can be used to train AI-based models."AI-based models simply aren't aware of the physics - and changing physics - of the atmosphere, so NWP will likely continue to play a vital role in forecasting extreme events, as well as adding a layer of validation to AI forecasting outputs." Dr Scott Hosking, Mission Director for Environmental Forecasting at the Turing Institute, said that once trained, AI models were cheaper and quicker to run than traditional forecasting systems."AI has surprised us in a number of ways," said Dr Hosking."One of them is how well it predicts the tracks of cyclones and hurricanes. AI is always learning what it has seen in the past."But he said AI still had some way to go in certain areas, including in its ability to forecast high-intensity rainfall - the kind that often leads to flash could also play a key role in space weather forecasting, helping to predict solar storms more accurately and efficiently. These storms, caused by solar activity, are best known for producing the aurora borealis - the Northern Lights - which have been seen in Wales several times recently. But space weather can be hazardous too, affecting Earth's magnetic field and potentially disrupting communication systems and Huw Morgan, Head of Solar System Physics at Aberystwyth University, led a project to enhance the Met Office's space weather forecasting. Speaking from the university's AI Hub, he told me AI could offer a vital role."It's a very complicated system to try to model. Forecasts exist but they have many weaknesses because space weather is so complex," Dr Morgan said."And unlike on Earth, we can't put recording stations on the Sun or between the Sun and Earth. "We are really dependent on remote data from telescopes. "So AI offers a good solution, because we can't monitor the whole system constantly, and we cannot really build models that are appropriate for the system yet."However, Dr Morgan acknowledges AI has its challenges and scientists will continue to rely on traditional space weather forecasting techniques for now. 'No one wants an AI Derek' So what about AI-generated weather presenters?Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern is not so sure."It's important for people to have presenters they trust," he told me. "No one wants an AI version of Derek. "They want the real Derek - someone who can take all the data and explain it in a way that makes sense."Aidan is optimistic about what the future holds for forecasting."When I started this job 18 years ago, we couldn't really predict beyond four or five days. "Now we're giving outlooks 10 or even 14 days ahead. "We may not be able to give specific details that far out but we can already offer a sense of whether it'll be warm or cold, wet or dry - and highlight big changes on the way."And with AI, the potential only grows."Just imagine - in the near future, we might be able to talk about a month's worth of weather at once, and visualise it in a way that really connects with the public. "That's hugely exciting."The potential for AI in weather prediction is immense, but AI won't replace traditional forecasting methods entirely. It's more likely to work alongside them and be another tool for meteorologists like me to use. For now, at least, I think my job is safe. Hopefully the real Derek will continue to say "hello, shwmae" for a long while yet.
Daily Mail
9 hours ago
- Daily Mail
US braces for 'dirty rain' as airborne threat chokes Southeast
By A massive plume of dust the size of the US is set to drop buckets of mud from the sky on the entire Southeast. The approaching dust cloud is coming from the Sahara Desert and was formed by strong winds sweeping tiny sand and mineral particles off the surface. By Thursday, meteorologists are warning that the rain in Florida, Georgia, Alabama , and the Carolinas could combine with the dust to create showers of 'dirty rain' throughout the region. Officials in Puerto Rico have already warned residents of poor air quality as the dust swept over the Caribbean earlier this week. The Saharan cloud made landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The AccuWeather team noted that most of the Saharan dust will likely remain thousands of feet high in the atmosphere, meaning it will have little impact on air quality at ground level. This year's plume is different as it's earlier, denser, and more concentrated, with higher levels of fine particles. As a result, health officials and meteorologists are keeping a close eye on its impact. The size and intensity of these clouds vary from year to year, but scientists believe shifting wind patterns and climate change may be contributing to more frequent and powerful plumes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated that over 180 million tons of dust leaves Africa every year. It results in extremely dry air that local reduces thunderstorm activity in the US and cuts down on the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. If the forecasted storms in the Southeast this week overcome that dry air, it will likely mean several days of a 'muddy mix' falling from the sky. Meteorologists said that flash flooding and thunderstorms are expected throughout Florida all night on Wednesday. A slow-moving storm system will collide with the dust cloud Thursday as it moves beyond Florida, potentially bringing dust-filled showers to millions along the East Coast. At the same time, another massive plume is making its way down from Canada , filling most of the Eastern and Central US with dangerous wildfire smoke. AccuWeather has warned that air quality has already reached hazardous to dangerous levels in parts of the Dakotas, Illinois , Iowa , Michigan , Minnesota , Montana, Nebraska , and Wisconsin. Forecasters are also warning that New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and most of New England will experience reduced air quality as the haze from the wildfires moves east. AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said many Americans will only see the smoke cause dimmer sunsets and hazy skies, but there will still be cases where it travels closer to the ground and triggers serious breathing issues. 'There will be episodes where the smoke can reach the lower levels of the atmosphere and affect visibility and air quality,' Buckingham explained. 'That could be a safety concern for travel in extreme cases and pose health problems for some individuals with respiratory issues,' he added. The smoke is traveling east from massive forest fires in western Canadian provinces like Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia. The scenes playing out this week in the northern US are similar to the apocalyptic sigh t across the East Coast in 2023, when Canadian wildfires turned the sky orange and shrouded entire city skylines. In the South, the effect of the Saharan dust cloud will have a similar impact on local skies, creating hazy skies and colorful sunrises and sunsets. People in Florida will start to see these sights starting Wednesday, with millions across the Southeast and Gulf seeing the dust-filled skies by Friday. As for the wildfire smoke in the northern half of the country, rain moving into the Upper Midwest will likely bring the smell of smoke right to people's noses, especially in Minnesota and Wisconsin. AccuWeather explained that rainfall can bring the smell of wildfire smoke down to ground level, so people standing outside when it rains will notice the odor more. However, the rainfall will also help to cleanse the air of the smoky particles and improve overall air quality in the region. Throughout the rest of summer 2025, meteorologists are expecting northern states like Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington to experience the worst air quality due to the ongoing Canadian wildfires.
