The 1600: Hot Trump Summer
Good morning,
We've discussed now a couple times how the resistance to Trump 2.0 has been relatively muted, particularly over his signature domestic policy of mass deportations. What I failed to take into account is how quickly the dam can break on these kinds of things. There were some isolated instances of confrontations with federal law enforcement over the last few weeks, like the Newark mayor getting arrested outside an ICE jail, or clashes here in NYC where ICE has been arresting migrants at their mandated court hearings.
But those incidents gave way to full-blown riots over the weekend in Los Angeles, which is now reeling after three straight days of violence that started as protests against ICE workplace raids and quickly devolved from there, with people throwing cinderblocks at federal agents and setting cars on fire, and police responding with tear gas and rubber bullets. President Trump, never one to miss a political opportunity right in front of his eyes, immediately called in the National Guard and put the Marines on standby, saying the LAPD was unable to get things under control on its own. Governor Gavin Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass, who somehow still has her job after her epic botching of the Palisades fire response earlier this year, shot back that Trump was needlessly inflaming the situation.
Important to note here that everyone is getting exactly what they want. Trump is coming off one of the worst news cycles of his second term, with his most prominent surrogate (and one of the handful of people who can make his life harder) going scorched earth and reminding voters that the coalition that carried Trump to victory is much more tenuous than it looks. If you were creating an optimal political scenario to bury that news, it would be hard to beat the images of masked men on dirtbikes waving Mexican flags as they circle a flaming Hyundai in the middle of a Dem-controlled city, as cops look on.
Remember, Trump's mass deportation policy is broadly popular. A CBS poll last week had it at 54% approval, and it's probably higher now. The White House wants this fight. Trump is known to harbor regrets about not acting with more force during the "mostly peaceful" BLM protests in the summer of 2020 that turned violent, and now he's creating the conditions for a re-do. The fact that the opposition are waving flags from other countries on the streets of American cities is just the icing on the cake.
Bass, who has no future in national politics but is probably gunning for an MSNBC show or some other consolation prize, can look tough as she stands next to Newsom, who is preparing to run for POTUS and finally has his opportunity to take on Trump directly. "Donald Trump needs to pull back," Newsom told an MS reporter who he invited into his command center last night. "He needs to stand down." When asked about "border czar" Tom Homan threatening to arrest California politicians who obstruct federal law enforcement, the governor retorted: "He's a tough guy. Why doesn't he do that? He knows where to find me."
I have an increasingly bad feeling about how this plays out. The unrest in the summer of 2020 came out of nowhere, fueled more by the pandemic than George Floyd's death if we're being honest, and caught Trump off guard then. He didn't know how to handle it, and ended up looking weak. He's not going to make that mistake again.
Plus, the political winds have changed direction since then. Americans, as a rule, do not like disorder. Trump, who ran on a law and order campaign message, probably has the wind at his back if these protests spread—even if he is the one to escalate. Notable: the memo that authorized the National Guard never mentions LA, but just anywhere protests "are occurring or are likely to occur." He's setting the table for a clash between federal and state law enforcement. Blue-state pols like Newsom will see this as a battle worth having to burnish their anti-Trump cred. The media will mostly run cover for Newsom, et al., while the real information wars play out on algorithmic social feeds.
It's gonna be a hot summer, folks.
The Rundown
President Donald Trump called for more troops to enter Los Angeles amid rioting that stemmed from protests against immigration enforcement. The president is deploying 2,000 California National Guard troops to L.A. to quell turmoil on the streets, despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom.
"Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!" Trump said early Monday. Read more.
Also happening:
Trump-Musk fallout: President Donald Trump made clear in an interview with NBC News that Elon Musk will face "very serious consequences" if the tech billionaire starts to fund Democrats in the wake of the fallout between the two former allies. Trump added that Musk had been "disrespectful to the office of the President" and that he was "too busy doing other things" with no intention of speaking with Musk. Read more.
President Donald Trump made clear in an interview with NBC News that Elon Musk will face "very serious consequences" if the tech billionaire starts to fund Democrats in the wake of the fallout between the two former allies. Trump added that Musk had been "disrespectful to the office of the President" and that he was "too busy doing other things" with no intention of speaking with Musk. Read more. Dems bouncing back: Democrats have faced less than impressive polling since President Donald Trump's win in November, but new polling suggests the party's popularity might be on an upward trajectory again. A new YouGov survey puts them 2 points ahead of Republicans—their biggest lead since August. Read more.
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