Erin to bring 'classic' hurricane swell to South Florida surfers but danger to regular beachgoers
Already, an unpredictable slot swell funneled through the Providence Channel slipping under Grand Bahama to reach parts of Palm Beach County's summer-dulled coastline.
And as the first hurricane of the 2025 season moves northeast of the limestone islands that otherwise block much of the Gold Coast from far off waves, more ideal surf conditions are forecast to filter in.
'This should be a proper swell,' said Brandon Andrews, supervisor for Palm Beach County Ocean Rescue North. "All indicators are pointing toward ideal conditions."
Hurricane Erin brings ideal swells for surfing in Florida
Erin is far enough away from Florida that its wind energy is pumped into the ocean like a hand pressing into a waterbed sending uniform lines of salty blue corduroy to the coast. Storms whose wind fields are closer to the state, or strafing over the state, tend to make more sloppy waves, with choppy whitecapped peaks slapping into the beach in unruly spasms.
A forecast for offshore winds on Thursday into Friday — another function of Erin's northeasterly path — means a smoother ocean's surface just off the beach, turning waves into glassy lumps until they break into a white froth.
More: What to know about dangerous Florida rip currents, how to escape if you're caught in one
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'This is a great scenario for several days of a classic pumping hurricane swell all up and down the east coast,' said James Wieland, a surfer and meteorologist for WPTV Channel 5, in his surf forecast. 'Expect lots of closeouts, but there will be some gems rolling through at the right break.'
A closeout is when a wave curls and crashes all at once — sending a surfer tumbling or shooting straight into the beach — instead of crumbling uniformly north or south like a coat being unzipped, keeping the face of the wave open and ridable.
Wieland is predicting the swell will reach Martin County on Wednesday and push into northern Palm Beach County late Wednesday into Thursday. It should reach at least to central Palm Beach County late Thursday into Friday.
'It now looks like the swell will last through the weekend!' Wieland wrote.
Regular beachgoers in Florida need to realize the dangers in the water due to swells, rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin
But an ideal set up for surfing isn't great for the safety of regular beachgoers who see calm blue skies and rolling waves not realizing the dangers in the water. It can be especially troublesome this time of year when tourists whose schools don't start until after Labor Day are having their last summer hurrah.
Hurricane Erin is forecast to be about 1,400 miles northeast of South Florida on Saturday, closer to Nova Scotia than the Sunshine State, but Palm Beach County could still be feeling the effects.
The National Weather Service in Miami issued a high surf advisory through noon Saturday and extended the high risk of rip currents through Saturday night for county beaches reflecting Erin's far-reaching ripples that surfers crave but make lifeguards anxious.
'One of the biggest problems for us is trying to message a threat that's offshore and not readily seen,' said Sammy Hadi, an NWS meteorologist based in Miami. 'It's a beautiful day, it's hot, and it seems like it's great for a swim but under the water can be very deadly.'
Already this week, about 60 people had to be rescued from rip currents at Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina as Hurricane Erin-driven waves reach the shore, according to the Wilmington Star-News.
More: 2025 Hurricane Season Guide: Storm preparedness tips, supply list, evacuation zones
Another person was rescued from rip currents at a South Carolina beach, and a dozen rip currents were reported at South Carolina and Georgia beaches Aug. 18, the National Weather Service in Charleston, South Carolina, said.
This year, 61 people nationwide, including 13 in Florida, have died in rip currents or other ocean related incidents such as high surf, according to the National Weather Service.
In April, two Palm Beach County teenagers drowned in different ocean incidents. Oliver Vasquez-Perez, 17, died in a rip current near the Lake Worth Beach pier. Jerry Hyppolite, 13, drowned in waters off Fort Lauderdale.
Rip currents have become enough of a concern to the National Hurricane Center that it started producing its own rip current risk maps this year to highlight coastal risks produced by storms that can be hundreds of miles away.
The closest the center of Hurricane Erin will be to Palm Beach County is about 450 miles.
As of early Wednesday, Erin was 645 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras. Its hurricane-force winds extended outward 90 miles from its center with tropical storm-force winds extending a yawning 265 miles. That's twice as large as it was earlier this week, said WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry in his Tuesday morning forecast.
If Erin regains Category 3 strength — it was down to a 100 mph Cat 2 on Tuesday afternoon — Lowry said it would be the largest major hurricane since Fiona in September 2022.
Erin is not just the first hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, it also is notable for its extreme rapid intensification, gaining 85 mph in 24 hours to briefly become a Category 5 storm. It was preceded by tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. Forecasts this season mostly call for above average activity with Colorado State University expecting 11 more named storms after Erin.
In Palm Beach County this week, breaking wave heights are forecast to reach up to eight feet with seas swelling to nine feet. In addition to the high surf advisory and rip current risk, there is also a small craft advisory in effect for Plam Bekach County through Thursday, but that could be extended.
'Swimming is not advised for the next couple of days,' Andrews said, emphasizing that swimmers should heed lifeguard warnings and stay out of the water when red and double red flags are flying. 'We do get people from all over the world, and they run right in because they are just excited to be here.'
Behind Erin, the NHC is watching two tropical waves. One near the Leeward Islands has a 10% chance of formation over two days and a 60% chance over seven days. Another, which was designated Invest AL99, is about 100 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands with a 40% chance of becoming something tropical over both two and seven days.
Neither is a threat to the mainland U.S. at this point. The next names on the 2025 hurricane list are Fernand and Gabrielle.
What is a rip current?
Rip currents are powerful, concentrated channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, most often found at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as jetties and piers.
How do rip currents work?
Rip currents form when incoming waves create an underwater sandbar. The waves push more water between the sandbar and the shore until it collapses and the water rushes back to the sea through a narrow gap, where it starts to spread out.
How to spot rip currents?
They can be difficult to see when you're in the water as the ocean over them can still be smooth.
Rip currents often form during or after stormy weather but can form on bright, sunny days just as easily since the weather isn't really what's causing them. Rip currents can be found at any beach with waves, at any time.
What should you do if you're caught in a rip current?
By far the most important thing to do is to stay calm and float. They can be scary, but rip currents will only pull you along, they won't pull you under the water. The biggest danger is tiring yourself out.
Don't panic or thrash about. Don't bother trying to fight the current.
You may be able to get out of the current by swimming with it parallel to the shore (or just floating or treading water) until it fades or circulates back to shore, and then you can swim to the beach.
You also can try swimming with the current toward breaking waves, where you may be able to swim for shore.
If you can't reach the shore or you're being pulled farther out to sea, or you're getting tired, draw attention to yourself by waving or shouting for help.
Palm Beach Post digital strategy editor Laura Lordi contributed to this report.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism: Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Erin tracker: Ideal weather for surfing in South Florida
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