Commentary: Vietnam's Trump card in trade negotiations with the US
SINGAPORE: In May, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Eric Trump – son of the US president – attended the groundbreaking of a US$1.5 billion urban development-eco-tourism-golf complex, a joint venture between the Trump Organization and Vietnam's Kinh Bac City.
The Trump Organization is also eyeing a prime site in Ho Chi Minh City – the country's economic-financial hub – for a potential Trump Tower. These events coincided with ongoing Vietnam-US trade negotiations in Washington, where Hanoi was seeking relief from Trump's threat to impose 46 per cent tariff on its exports to America.
These moves underscore the Vietnamese leadership's high-stakes gambit in navigating US relations while advancing their growth agenda and political consolidation at a critical juncture of the country.
The Trump Organization's venture in Vietnam has ignited apprehensions regarding the conflation of the US president's political authority with his family's commercial interests.
'SPECIAL TREATMENT'
According to the New York Times, the Vietnamese government fast-tracked legal processes and granted extraordinary concessions to expedite the project's approval, raising concerns about the inadequacy of local consultation and the resulting displacement of local communities.
By extending 'special treatment' to a project linked to the US president's family, Hanoi is betting on reciprocal gains in the ongoing trade talks with Washington.
This demonstrates a calculated pragmatism to navigate the raw transactionalism of the Trump administration and President Trump himself.
While the urgent need to curry favour with Trump is arguably the immediate and most compelling motivation behind these concessions, Hanoi's endorsement of the Trump-branded project should also be understood in the broader context of its pro-growth and deregulation strategy.
Under the leadership of the new Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) General Secretary To Lam, Vietnam is vigorously advancing a pro-growth agenda anchored on three core pillars. It seeks to position the private sector, including joint ventures with foreign partners like the one between Kinhbac City and the Trump Organization, as the primary engine of economic growth.
There is also a focus on building large-scale infrastructure and major real estate projects to fuel economic expansion. It also intends to slash red tape to significantly reduce business costs and hasten the process of investment approval and execution.
CUTTING RED TAPE
This growth drive is sweeping nationwide. Ministries and provincial authorities have been instructed to rigorously streamline administrative procedures and cut red tape.
The target is at the least a 30 per cent reduction in business regulations, approval times, and compliance costs to catalyse investment. While the expedited approval of the Trump project stands out for its exceptional speed given its apparent 'special status', it nevertheless fits within Vietnam's new business-friendly reform agenda.
Hanoi is also intent on seeing the golf complex completed by 2027, when it hosts the APEC leaders' meeting. This could potentially be used as a lever to draw Trump back to the country and elevate the summit's profile.
Furthermore, the Vietnamese government seeks to leverage this project to bolster its appeal to international investors – particularly in the luxury property sector – and to catalyse local development, employment and tourism.
On the flip side, Hanoi's bold gambit carries significant political risks – particularly if it fails to deliver tangible gains in the tariff negotiations with Washington by July. Vietnam must also reckon with the inherent duality of the Trump brand.
THE DUALITY OF TRUMP
The family name is associated with a cachet of power and high-end allure that resonates with certain elite circles – especially so long as Trump remains in the White House – yet it is also weighed down by dubious political and ethical baggage.
On social media, many Vietnamese have expressed excitement about the Trump brand's arrival in Vietnam and lauded the government's pragmatic maneuvering. But there are also dissenting voices who raised ethical and nationalistic concerns over what they saw as the attempt to 'bribe' the Trump family.
Moreover, the project area faces risks of local backlash over land-use rights – land disputes have historically been the country's most volatile flashpoint for social unrest.
At the project's ground-breaking ceremony, Prime Minister Chinh urged local authorities and investors to prioritise the well-being of affected residents, ensuring their new homes and livelihoods would surpass what they previously had.
JUGGLING THE BENEFITS AND DRAWBACKS
Of the project's 990-hectare footprint, 7.3 hectares are designated for social housing to provide for the affected people. Vietnam's updated Land Law, enacted last year, also institutes stronger legal safeguards that impose stricter conditions on state land acquisition and mandate fair market-based compensation.
Of note, while Western media have largely focused on the grievances of local residents facing displacement, many landowners have seen significant economic gains.
The Trump project has caused local property values to more than double within a year, transforming a sleepy backwater into a real estate hotspot. This surge reflects a familiar pattern across the country where major infrastructure and property projects drive sharp increases in land value.
Ultimately, Vietnam's approach to the Trump project underscores the intersection of its external diplomacy and internal exigencies – managing a transactional US relationship amid looming tariff threats, while driving growth with relentless urgency.
With the VCP's National Congress approaching, both General Secretary Lam and Prime Minister Chinh face mounting pressure to convert policy ambition into demonstrable success that can solidify their governance credentials and political standing.
The Trump project is therefore not merely a commercial venture, but a strategic gambit aimed at sustaining national growth amidst shifting global political currents marked by Trumpian transactionalism and the erosion of ethical boundaries separating public office from private gain.
The project also offers a glimpse into the emerging character of the new Vietnamese leadership's statecraft: unflinchingly pragmatic, swift in manoeuvres, and unafraid to wager boldly when the stakes are high.
Hoang Thi Ha is Senior Fellow and Co-coordinator of the Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme, and Dien Nguyen An Luong is a Visiting Fellow with the Media, Technology and Society Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
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