Agribusiness and Trade: NZ agriculture enjoying blockbuster comeback
New Zealand's beef sector has enjoyed a standout year, underpinned by resurgent global demand and premium positioning in key export markets. Farmgate prices have surged to levels 35–45% above the five-year average, reflecting strong international appetite for sustainably produced, grass-fed meat. Tariff noise aside, the United States, in particular, has ramped up imports, with New Zealand significantly increasing its share of US beef supply. China and Japan have also shown renewed interest in lean beef cuts, creating diversified market opportunities. On-farm, producers have responded by focusing on efficiency and quality — optimising genetics, refining finishing systems, and improving pasture resilience. With export volumes rebounding to pre-Covid levels and market fundamentals remaining favourable, the beef sector is well-positioned to maintain momentum into 2026.
Kiwifruit: Back to Gold Standard
After two challenging seasons marked by labour constraints and weather volatility, New Zealand's kiwifruit sector has bounced back with renewed strength and clarity of purpose. Export volumes have recovered, particularly for SunGold varieties, with Zespri forecasting a record crop and export returns surging toward $4 billion — a major driver behind horticulture's overall 19% growth in primary sector exports this year. Improved orchard management, better fruit quality, and more reliable post-harvest performance have been central to this turnaround. Growers are reinvesting confidently, expanding canopy, adopting precision horticulture tools, and upgrading packhouse automation to lift productivity. We have seen and supported increased lending for orchard development finance, seasonal working capital, and long-term investment solutions aligned to land-use ambitions and succession planning. With strong offshore demand from Asia and Europe, and a renewed focus on quality over volume, the kiwifruit sector is once again leading New Zealand horticulture into a prosperous future.
Currency & Costs: A Delicate Balance
While global uncertainty continues to influence input costs, New Zealand's exporters are benefiting from a favourable exchange rate environment. A weaker New Zealand dollar — trading persistently below US$0.61—has bolstered export competitiveness, lifting farmgate returns across dairy, beef, and horticulture. For many producers, this currency tailwind has helped offset rising costs for key inputs like fuel, fertiliser, and imported machinery. Fertiliser costs have edged higher, with urea prices up 18% and phosphate up 12% year-on-year, driven by international supply constraints and energy prices. However, improved commodity pricing and production scale have largely preserved on-farm margins. At the same time, interest rates are showing signs of continued easing. With the Reserve Bank's gradual loosening of the Official Cash Rate expected into 2026, debt servicing pressure is beginning to ease, improving cashflow certainty for agribusinesses.
For many farming operations, the current balance of strong commodity pricing and improving financial conditions represents a window of opportunity to reinvest, restructure, or build resilience ahead of future volatility.
Market Sentiment: Confidence Returns to the Paddock
After several years of volatility, confidence is returning across New Zealand's rural sector. Farmers and growers are feeling the uplift from stronger returns, a more stable policy environment, and improved seasonal conditions. According to the latest Tracta AgriPulse survey, overall sentiment has turned positive for the first time in two years, with producers citing better payout forecasts, manageable input costs, and stronger support from their banks and industry bodies. This renewed optimism is translating into action: farm development plans including genuine expansion are being reactivated, equipment upgrades are back on the table, and more businesses are engaging in succession conversations.
There is also a growing appetite for innovation, with increased investment in digital tools and on-farm data systems. We are seeing this momentum firsthand. Demand for tailored agribusiness lending is rising, and our regional teams are busier than ever helping clients build forward-looking financial strategies. With confidence returning and commodity markets holding firm, New Zealand's rural communities are shifting from cautious survival to confident growth.
At BNZ we particularly understand the importance of supporting first farm and herd buyers make the leap from employees to owners. It's an exciting time, as anyone who's gone through it themselves will know, and we see a role here for BNZ to connect new owners with seasoned farmers to help set them up for success.
Risks Ahead: Navigating Headwinds in 2025–26
While the outlook for New Zealand agriculture is positive, a few key risks warrant close attention over the coming year. Climate variability remains front of mind, with recent weather patterns highlighting the growing unpredictability of rainfall and temperature across regions. Although La Nina has eased, a shift to more neutral or El Nino-like conditions could bring moisture stress to eastern areas and impact pasture and crop performance.
Input cost volatility is also a watchpoint. While commodity returns are strong, global fertiliser and fuel markets remain exposed to geopolitical disruptions, and any sharp movements could squeeze margins — particularly for intensive operations. There are also geopolitical and trade uncertainties to monitor. Changes in global demand, regulatory settings in key markets like China and the US or shifts in trade access could impact export flows.
Domestically, evolving expectations around climate and freshwater regulation, as well as emissions pricing, could create compliance and investment pressure, particularly for those not already aligned with industry assurance schemes. But while these risks are real, they are also manageable. Farmers are resilient and have a long and proven history of adapting to change. They are also well capitalised and increasingly supported by sophisticated tools, data, and finance.
We understand that a key part of managing risks is partnering with a bank that understands farmers' goals and the strategies they have in place to achieve them. One of the things that sets BNZ's agribusiness offering apart is that our agribankers are the decision-makers. The banker sitting at your kitchen table is often the person who's able to approve your loan. This means that you get a decision on the spot - and the certainty that comes with it.
Looking Ahead: A Confident Path Forward
New Zealand's agricultural sector enters the next 12 months with real momentum — and a growing sense of purpose. Global demand for safe, high-quality, sustainably produced food is intensifying, and New Zealand remains well placed to deliver it. Our pasture-based systems, strong biosecurity, and trusted provenance continue to command premium positioning across key export markets.
BNZ sees this shift every day. We are working with customers who are building future-focused businesses — diversifying revenue streams, embracing on-farm assurance programmes, and planning succession with confidence. With strong commodity prices, improving financial conditions, and a renewed focus on long-term sustainability, the sector has the opportunity to grow both value and resilience.
The road ahead won't be without bumps — but with clear direction, deep capability, and a trusted banking partner, New Zealand agriculture is set to thrive in a world that increasingly values exactly what we do best.
BNZ is an advertising sponsor of the Herald's Agribusiness and Trade report.
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Scoop
2 hours ago
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Will Auckland's Sky World Ever Be Returned To Its Former Glory?
, Senior journalist If you ask an Aucklander about Sky World Indoor Entertainment, once known as the Metro Centre, chances are they'll have a story to tell about getting lost inside the labyrinth-like interior, loitering outside Burger King or celebrating a birthday at the long-gone Planet Hollywood. But over the last decade the Queen St building has slowly decayed with numerous businesses shutting up shop and foot-traffic dropping dramatically. In 2017, RNZ reported the building remained open without a warrant of fitness for more than a year despite a "high risk" to public safety. Auckland Council confirmed the building does now have a valid warrant of fitness through to 24 August. The building spent two years on the market and as of October 2024, the owner of the building James Kwak from JNJ Holdings, said there were plans for redevelopment. Kwak has owned the building since 2011 when he paid $37 million for it. 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Otago Daily Times
4 hours ago
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Trump slaps 15% trade tariff on NZ goods
US President Donald Trump announced the tariffs in April. New Zealand exports to the US will face a 15% tariff rate, it has been announced. The White House has revised its list of tariffs for particular countries and New Zealand has been put on a 15% base rate, up from the original 10% announced earlier. US President Donald Trump announced the tariffs in April and said they would be imposed on more than 125 countries. Tariffs are paid by importers of products from other countries to their own governments, like taxes, effectively making imported goods more expensive for local consumers. Advocates say they protect local economies, while detractors say they reduce trade and push up prices. In announcing the initial range of tariffs in April, Trump caused confusion when he held up a chart, saying New Zealand charged US goods a 20% tariff, which the New Zealand Government denied. It ended up being 10%, which Finance Minister Nicola Willis at the time called "extraordinary". Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said New Zealand would not respond in kind. Two-thirds of Kiwi businesses in a survey earlier this year thought the tariffs would have a more severe global impact than Covid-19 and the global financial crisis over the next 12 months. Trump has repeatedly threatened a range of different tariffs on various nations since returning to the White House. Most recently, he targeted India, citing its own trade barriers and purchasing of energy and arms from Russia, and Canada, over its newfound support for Palestinian statehood.
