EPA projections require a frank reassessment of Irish climate policies

Irish Times

a day ago

Judging by the
EPA's latest greenhouse gas projections
,
Ireland's climate policies are in urgent need of an overhaul
.
The projections issued annually relate to likely carbon emissions across the Irish economy up to 2030, but also for following decades up to 2050.
It is clear existing policies are failing to deliver significant emission reductions or are being overtaken by
increases in energy demand
or economic growth.
At best, Ireland might achieve a 16 per cent reduction in agricultural emissions compared with the 51 per cent that is required under law, which is reasonably aligned with our Paris Agreement commitments. This would be with full implementation of measures in the Government's climate action plan.
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But even that 16 per cent is not guaranteed: the EPA reports that emissions under an 'existing measures' scenario might even increase by 2030 above their 2018 levels. That must not be allowed to happen.
Why is Ireland failing in
climate policy
, you might wonder. Don't we have a gold standard climate law? While it's true that our 2021 Climate Act is well designed from a governance point of view, any law – even a good one – is no substitute for political will.
That the political will has waned is obvious from a reading of the Programme for Government and the choice of rural independents as coalition partners.
But other decisions and non-decisions, delays and prevarications suggest that
the Government has little interest or commitment to acting on the recommendations of its climate experts
, and prefers to bend to the will of major exporters and a highly self-serving reading of public opinion.
Though the policy framework has been considerably improved, it seems to take an age to implement what should be straightforward decisions (and I'm not even speaking of major infrastructure projects).
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The
Departments of Finance
and
Public Expenditure
still dictate the pace of investment, and administrative delays in making decisions of any kind are common.
Public bodies are notoriously cautious and risk-averse, but that mindset means that we are not getting the decisive actions that the public was promised to clean up our energy system and put Ireland on a path to climate neutrality – ideally, before 2050.
The director general of the EPA, Laura Burke, remarked last week at a conference in Dublin Castle that 'additional measures and accelerated implementation' are required if we are to even get close to the 2030 targets. She stated that 'scaling up' efforts will be necessary across the board.
But what does that actually mean? For you and me, scaling up our efforts might mean an additional journey by bike or a meat-free dinner once a week, or installing solar panels (if you're privileged enough to own a roof).
Worthy actions taken voluntarily make us feel better but they won't put a significant dent in Ireland's emissions. Systemic change requires a different set of levers – the use of regulations, mandates, incentives, subsidies and enforcement.
The truth is that our public representatives and policy experts seem unwilling to discuss the big decisions that will be needed to dramatically transform our energy system and land use and prefer to rely on policies and measures that the EPA now acknowledges will not be sufficient.
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For instance, the Dáil hardly ever debates climate policy though the actual words are mentioned frequently. When the numbers are going in the right direction (eg, chemical nitrogen use) everyone wants to claim the credit (good policy, good farmers, etc).
When the numbers are going in the wrong direction (chemical nitrogen figures have increased in 2024 again, which will be confirmed by EPA inventories in coming weeks), no one accepts responsibility.
When the pressure mounts to make a decision, policymakers revert to default and recommend another report or a new consultation. And meanwhile we are blowing through the first carbon budget by between 8 and 12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which adds up to the total annual emissions of countries like Armenia or Nicaragua.
And whenever a negative news story comes out about emissions or climate science, the Government is quick to report Ireland's stellar progress in renewable electricity, even though this, too, is but a small flicker (excuse the pun) of what we will actually need to deliver by 2050.
The kind of bold interventions we now need would restrict the energy consumption of large energy users like
data centres
, restrict urban private car use, and deploy effective, catchment-based limits on
nitrogen, ammonia and greenhouse gas pollution from agricultural sources
.
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Imaginative and brave measures to accelerate the roll-out of
renewables
and to ensure that their environmental impact is properly assessed and mitigated will be essential.
We are facing into a
global climate emergency
, with global temperature increases now heading well north of 1.5 degrees and the prospect of dangerous climate breakdown occurring within our lifetimes.
Clearly the newly established
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy
doesn't view it as much of an emergency: following lengthy delays in setting up the Oireachtas committees, it has met just twice since the general election in late November 2024, and only to elect a chair and vice chair.
Yes, scaling is hard to do, so we had better do what we know already works and what we are good at delivering. If the magic beans (small-scale nuclear reactors, feed additives, biomethane) don't deliver, then we have to consider more radical pruning.
Everything should be on the table, including livestock herd reductions, transport hubs in every town and village, mandatory afforestation in suitable areas and urgent State investment in making heat pumps, solar panels, sustainable building materials and shared mobility services affordable and accessible to all as a priority over the demands of incumbent energy, water and land-hungry industries.
And no one needs to be left behind.
Sadhbh O'Neill is a climate and environmental researcher and activist