Apple exported 11.5 million iPhones from India to US in first 4 months of this year, export from China down
Apple exported a total of 13.2 million iPhones from China to the US between January and April 2025. In the same period, India shipped 11.5 million iPhones to the US, according to estimates. At first glance, China still appears to be leading, but a closer look reveals a different story. India has been catching up steadily month after month, and in April, it actually overtook China for the first time, exporting 3.3 million iPhones compared to China's 900,000 units. advertisementAccording to market analysis research by Omdia (formerly Canalys), via CNBC, in April alone, iPhone shipments from India to the US rose 76 per cent year-on-year to reach approximately 3 million units. This sharp rise coincided with a 76 per cent drop in shipments from China during the same month. 'This latest trade war with China, is the type of disturbance that Apple has long been trying to prepare itself for,' said Le Xuan Chiew, research manager at Omdia. The research combines customs records and channel data from Apple's distributors.Apple started investing heavily in India's supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic, and those efforts appear to be paying off. Chiew added that the unusually high export numbers in March — 4.4 million from India — may have been due to the company stockpiling ahead of former US President Donald Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' on April 2.advertisement
Despite Trump's decision to exempt iPhones from these tariffs on April 11, Apple's India-focused production strategy remains unchanged. CEO Tim Cook, in early May, reaffirmed that most iPhones sold in the US would be manufactured in India moving forward.Currently, iPhones imported from China face an additional 30 per cent duty under Trump-era tariffs, while the base tariff for countries like India is 10 per cent. However, analysts believe India still has a long way to go. 'India's manufacturing capacity isn't expected to grow fast enough to take the entirety of US demand. It's still too early,' Chiew said. He added that Apple had only recently started shipping the top-end iPhone 16 Pro models from India. Estimates suggest US iPhone demand sits around 20 million units per quarter, and India is not expected to meet that demand fully until at least 2026.Daniel Newman, CEO of research firm Futurum Group, pointed out that while the final assembly of iPhones is moving to India, a large part of the supply chain remains in China. 'It was actually a very low lift for them to migrate more and more of the final assembly from China to India,' he said.That shift, however, hasn't gone unnoticed by the governments involved. Trump recently threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all iPhone imports, stating that they should be made in the US, 'not India, or any place else.' Meanwhile, China is reportedly trying to slow India's rise by limiting access to high-tech equipment and skilled labour needed for iPhone production.Still, experts believe Apple will stay on its India path despite the challenges. 'Producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale in our view, and Apple will continue to plough ahead on the India path. Cook will look to negotiate with Trump, but India is the focus and not changing,' said Dan Ives, global head of tech research at Wedbush Securities.Tune In
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