Playbook: The redistricting arms race

Politico

4 days ago

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Adam Wren and Zack Stanton talk about the rush to redraw congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election and break down the outlook in a few key states.
Good morning. It's Wednesday. This is Adam Wren. Get in touch.
In today's Playbook …
— While Donald Trump pressures red states to redistrict ahead of 2026, Hakeem Jeffries heads to Texas to strategize over how to derail those efforts.
— It's a big day for economic news, as Q2 GDP numbers drop this morning and Jerome Powell announces a decision on interest rates this afternoon.
— First in Playbook: Private chatter among Democratic governors is that one of their own will claim the party's mantle in 2028, Jonathan Martin reports, with two early favorites getting buzz.
DRIVING THE DAY
MAP QUEST: The redistricting arms race is front and center today not only in Washington, but also in state capitals around the country, as the White House ramps up its efforts to get red states to gerrymander new Republican seats ahead of 2026. Democrats are looking to respond in kind, hoping to eke out more blue seats from their own strongholds even as they search for ways to impede the GOP's attempts.
This morning, we have the latest on all of it — and readouts from POLITICO reporters across the country on how seriously to take the remapping chatter about their home turf.
Let's start in Washington …
First in Playbook — Hatch Act inquiry: As key figures in the Trump administration bear down on red-state governors and legislators, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) today will push for an investigation into possible violations of the Hatch Act. In a letter shared first with Playbook, Padilla is asking the Office of Special Counsel to look into whether senior political appointees in the White House and Justice Department broke the law by prevailing on Texas and other GOP-held states to redraw congressional maps with the explicit goal of electing more Republicans to Congress. Read the letter
How Trump is thinking about it: President Donald Trump is abundantly aware of the historical reality that midterms tend to go poorly for the incumbent party, and the present-day reality that Republicans have a narrow House majority. The White House (naturally) wants to maintain control of the chamber — both to forestall investigations and oversight attempts by a Democratic-led House, and to continue to enact the president's policy agenda during his final two years in office. That's why he has personally taken it upon himself to push for remapping.
But the most wired-in Republicans privately concede that they're not going to win the midterms through redistricting efforts alone.
'If we are relying on redistricting to hold the majorities, we have bigger issues,' said a Republican operative close to the White House who works on Senate and House races. Still, this operative defended the push: 'Frankly, [Democrats] do it, so we are giving them a dose of their own medicine.'
The centerpiece of Trump's effort is Texas. 'There could be some other states we're going to get another three, or four or five' Republican seats Trump said earlier this month. 'Texas would be the biggest one. Just a simple redrawing, [and] we pick up five seats.'
Which brings us to Austin …
Today: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will arrive in Austin and huddle with Texas' Democratic legislators tonight. 'This is a moment that requires a forceful on-the-ground response, and that is why I am traveling to Texas to convene with members of the Texas House and Senate delegations as well as our Democratic members representing Texas [in Congress],' Jeffries said in a statement to Playbook.
Also on Jeffries' schedule: Tomorrow, he'll hold a news conference in the state, his office tells Playbook, before heading to California later in the week. It's part of a full-court press that includes cable TV hits, podcast appearances and social media interviews with online creators.
How Texas Dems are messaging about it: Late last night, Playbook spoke with one of the Texans who'll meet with Jeffries tonight: state Rep. James Talarico, who, on the heels of his recent widely praised interview with Joe Rogan, is considering a run for U.S. Senate next year.
'I honestly think it's a threat to everyone, not just Democrats,' Talarico told Playbook of the GOP's mid-cycle redistricting push. 'They are trying to insulate themselves from the voters' — a concern that Talarico cited in noting that he has drafted legislation to create an independent redistricting commission in Texas.
Dems' new gambit: With few cards to play, Texas Democrats are considering fleeing the state in order to deny Republicans the quorum needed to enact new maps. 'I'm willing to do that if we get to that point,' Talarico told Playbook.
First in Playbook — House Dems ante up: The Democratic-aligned House Majority Forward is making a six-figure investment in ads spread across several congressional districts: Texas' 2nd, 5th, 15th and 24th. It's the opening salvo of the Lone Star Fund, which is expected to deploy upward of $20 million in spending before Election Day 2026.
THE LAY OF THE LAND: To help cut through the mapmaking noise, Playbook assembled some of POLITICO's top reporters from around the country to give you a readout on the likelihood of redistricting in their states.
California: Gov. Gavin Newsom has unequivocally embraced national Democrats' gerrymandering countermove, Democrats wield supermajorities and redistricting experts believe new lines could add a few more seats to Democrats' already-lopsided 43-9 advantage in the congressional delegation, POLITICO's Jeremy White writes in. But there are still formidable obstacles: It would require persuading voters to return power to politicians after stripping it away.
How seriously should you take it? Very — especially if Texas moves forward.
Florida: In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis muscled through a map that helped Republicans pick up four House seats and flip the chamber. The state Supreme Court recently upheld that map, and last week, DeSantis said there was 'ample justification' to change the lines again in the ever-growing state. But so far, GOP legislative leaders have been mum about that, POLITICO's Gary Fineout tells us. And there could be litigation, since the state has voter-approved redistricting standards that ban redrawing districts for partisan gain.
How seriously should you take it? Significantly.
New York: Jeffries and Gov. Kathy Hochul have gamed out how to redistrict, but Dems have few immediate avenues to pursue, POLITICO's Nick Reisman tells us. The state constitution prohibits mid-decade redistricting, so only a legal challenge to the current House lines can trigger new maps. Two state lawmakers have introduced a constitutional amendment that would allow New York to redistrict mid-cycle if another state is doing the same. But changing the constitution is cumbersome; an amendment wouldn't be in place until after 2026.
How seriously should you take it? It's about as likely as the Jets winning the Super Bowl, Nick tells us. (For those non-sports fans: That's exceedingly unlikely.)
New Jersey: The Garden State has been name-dropped as a possible Dem target for redistricting. But it's far-fetched that it would happen before 2026. The state constitution doesn't allow for mid-decade changes to the map. There's an exception if a court determines the lines are unlawful, but that's unlikely, POLITICO's Madison Fernandez tells us. Amending the state constitution is a lengthy process, and Dems wouldn't have much time to get an amendment in front of voters this fall due to state deadlines. Such a move could also be politically risky ahead of this November's elections for governor and state assembly.
How seriously should you take it? It's a nonstarter, Madison tells us.
Indiana: This one bubbled into the national conversation yesterday, but reporting from your Playbook author — who calls Indiana home — tells us that this is more a trial balloon by Trump world than anything real on the radar of the state's leaders. Republicans last redistricted in 2021, and despite an eager White House looking to potentially push Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan out of his seat near the Chicago suburbs, there is little-to-no appetite for remapping, according to four Hoosier Republicans close to the process.
How seriously should you take it? It's possible — particularly if Trump really leans on lawmakers — but there currently is very little interest in it from Indiana legislators.
IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
BY THE NUMBERS: A banner week of economic data begins at 8:30 a.m. with the release of second-quarter GDP numbers, after which Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the central bank's newest decision on interest rates at 2:30 p.m. Along with major companies' earnings reports, monthly jobs numbers and Trump's tariffs deadline later this week, the next few days will provide a barrage of economic indicators for stock markets to absorb, FT's George Steer previews.
Level-setting: One forecast predicts 2.9 percent growth for the GDP report, while the Fed is broadly expected to hold rates steady despite Republican pressure. But central bank policymakers are increasingly divided over the right course of action, with some centrists eyeing possible rate cuts later in the year, as WSJ's Nick Timiraos broke down. All eyes will turn to Powell for any indicators.
Countdown to Friday: The bull case for lowering interest rates is that Trump's trade wars have generally had a more muted effect on inflation and the economy than many economists feared. But with Friday looming as his biggest tariff deadline yet, dozens of countries are racing to try to strike deals with the U.S., NYT's Ashley Ahn reports. South Korea, Brazil and Canada are among the most significant trading partners yet to reach agreements. Trump's latest threat came against India: He said the country could face tariffs of 20 to 25 percent if it doesn't land on a deal, per CNN.
The ink's not yet dry: In some cases, the fine print isn't even written, as negotiators work to hammer out details of agreements with the EU, China and more. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he'll brief Trump today after wrapping up talks with Chinese negotiators, with the president retaining the final call on whether to extend a partial tariff truce, per Bloomberg. In Europe's case, grand promises of investments in the U.S. that helped persuade Trump to strike a deal appear to be flimsier than meets the eye, NYT's Jeanna Smialek reports. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CNBC that there's 'plenty of horse trading left to do.'
The impact: Americans will start to face higher prices for goods as companies sag under the weight of tariffs — as soon as next week, in Procter & Gamble's case, Reuters' David Gaffen and Marleen Kaesebier report. Meanwhile, a number of Republican senators shot down Sen. Josh Hawley's (R-Mo.) idea to send tariff rebate checks to Americans, Semafor's Burgess Everett reports.
ON THE HILL
YOU BE THE JUDGE: In the end, multiple whistleblower complaints weren't enough to stop the Senate from confirming controversial Trump attack dog Emil Bove to a federal appellate judgeship in a 50-49 vote last night. Only Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) broke ranks. After Bove, the principal associate deputy AG, denied all the allegations — including floating defiance of judicial rulings, misleading senators and improperly axing the corruption case against NYC Mayor Eric Adams — all other Senate Republicans 'provided at least a tacit Senate endorsement of the president's efforts to bend the justice system to his will,' NYT's Devlin Barrett reports.
Falling in line: For furious Democrats, the confirmation amounted to a betrayal by Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who was long a champion of whistleblowers. But Republicans roundly dismissed the outrage, with Grassley insisting that he still takes whistleblower complaints seriously.
Backing the blue (slip): Trump ramped up the pressure for Senate Republicans to tear through another norm and confirm judges faster. Last night, Trump posted on Truth Social that Grassley should end the blue-slip practice, which allows home-state senators from any party to veto judicial picks. But Grassley indicated that he wouldn't be budged from continuing the practice, POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs and Katherine Tully-McManus report.
Nominations now: Beyond just judges, Republican senators are getting ready to sweep aside Democratic tactics that have slow-walked a number of nominations, amid ongoing pressure from Trump, Axios' Stef Kight reports. Among the rules changes the GOP considered at a meeting yesterday: 'Eliminating the cloture votes, imposing shorter time limits on debates, changing which positions require Senate confirmation, allowing more en-bloc votes for nominees and setting Trump up to make recess appointments.' It isn't clear how many confirmations Trump needs before August recess to be satisfied, NOTUS' Ursula Perano and Helen Huiskes write.
Today's other big focus: The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will mark up Hawley's proposal to ban stock trading by top elected officials. But the White House is pushing senators to vote no because it opposes restrictions on members of the executive branch, Punchbowl's Andrew Desiderio and colleagues scooped. Hawley is emphasizing that it wouldn't apply to the president until Trump leaves office, but he had to include the president and VP in the bill to get Democratic support to move the bill out of committee.
Meanwhile, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is planning a discharge petition to force a House vote on a ban in September, POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill scooped — a move that is putting Speaker Mike Johnson in a pinch, as our colleagues on Inside Congress cover.
More in Congress: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will force doomed votes today on resolutions to block the sale of offensive weapons to Israel. … The Senate confirmed Susan Monarez as CDC director, 51-47. … In an unusual dispute on the floor, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) lashed out at fellow Democrats for failing to oppose Trump more forcefully, per Axios. 'We are being complicit,' Booker declared. 'The Democratic Party needs a wake-up call.' He engaged in an angry back-and-forth with Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.).
BEST OF THE REST
THE PURGE: As Trump fires swathes of federal workers and makes the government more loyal to him personally, a number of high-profile departures and policy changes are underway:
TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: Trump said his new deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach a ceasefire in his war on Ukraine would be 10 days hence — i.e. Aug. 8, per Bloomberg. Otherwise, tariffs to punish Russia are coming, Trump said.
TODAY AT 1600 PENN: Trump will announce a new initiative in which Oracle, Microsoft and other tech companies will help craft tools to modernize data access for Medicare recipients, CBS' Olivia Rinaldi and Jennifer Jacobs scooped. The project 'would create a system to ease the exchange of patient information.' Trump has a 4 p.m. event on the schedule.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Dem govs handicap 2028: Among Democratic governors at last weekend's meeting of the National Governors Association, there's a sense of swagger, the unsinkable Jonathan Martin reports from Colorado Springs: They believe the party will 'nominate one of their own for president, and win, in 2028.'
Who they're betting on: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore 'have emerged as early favorites among their peers,' JMart writes. 'Each was born in the 1970s, each has a promising biography and, why mince words, they're seen as most likely to fulfill the party's overriding criteria: They can win because it's hard for Republicans to portray them as radicals, soft or both.'
Who else is in the mix: Their peers are 'fond of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker as well as Kentucky's Andy Beshear, if somewhat more skeptical either can claim a nomination and general election. Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer is well-liked … but there are doubts she'll run for president. … They're less enamored with California's Gavin Newsom, to put it mildly, who has never really been part of the governors club.'
2026 WATCH: Pete Hegseth, midterm candidate? The Defense secretary has seriously talked with others about running for office in Tennessee next year, likely for governor, NBC's Gordon Lubold and colleagues scooped. The Pentagon calls it a 'made up story,' and some sources close to Hegseth tell NBC he's not considering it. … Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) announced that she won't run for Georgia governor, even while criticizing other candidates and saying she could have won, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. … Roy Cooper's entrance into the North Carolina Senate race could help turn it into one of the most expensive of the cycle, POLITICO's Elena Schneider writes.
First in Playbook — Crossing the Ohio River: Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno is endorsing businessman Nate Morris in Kentucky as he bids to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Amid Gaza's starvation catastrophe, Trump indicated that the U.S. and Israel would work on a new system to distribute food aid, per the AP, with the U.S. contributing $60 million. Details are scarce. Despite his concern about the crisis, Trump also said it's important not to reward Hamas, and he stayed away from the U.K.'s plan to recognize Palestine as a state if Israel doesn't agree to a ceasefire, per POLITICO's Jacob Wendler.
JUDICIARY SQUARE: Yet again, a federal appellate court has dealt a blow to Trump's effort to ban birthright citizenship, per WaPo.
The newest lawsuits: California and nearly two dozen more Democratic-led states sued over the GOP domestic policy bill's defunding of Planned Parenthood through Medicaid, POLITICO's Rachel Bluth reports. … Multiple legal groups sued the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission for not enforcing anti-discrimination measures for transgender people, AP's Claire Savage reports.
The U.S. attorney fights: As the Trump administration insists Alina Habba will remain U.S. attorney for New Jersey, chaos is engulfing criminal cases in which the defendants argue there is no validly appointed person in the role, per Bloomberg. On the other coast, DOJ is shredding norms too to try to keep Bill Essayli as U.S. attorney without Senate confirmation, the LA Times' Brittny Mejia and colleagues report. Trump is attempting the same ploy with Sigal Chattah in Nevada, Bloomberg Government's Ben Penn scooped.
SCHOOL DAZE: The Trump administration's latest collegiate target is Duke University, from which Kennedy and Education Secretary Linda McMahon froze $108 million in funding, Fox News' Charles Creitz scooped. The administration said Duke Health's diversity practices broke civil rights law. … The Justice Department went after UCLA for its handling of a pro-Palestinian encampment, saying the school violated Jewish/Israeli students' civil rights and threatening a lawsuit, per the LA Times' Jaweed Kaleem and Daniel Miller. … Harvard said it'll give DHS I-9 forms for most of its employees, per The Crimson's Samuel Church and Cam Srivastava.
THE EPSTEIN FILES: In his latest comments on his falling out with Jeffrey Epstein, Trump said the notorious sexual predator 'stole' Virginia Giuffre and others from Mar-a-Lago, where they'd worked, per ABC. When Epstein kept taking young women out of the spa, 'I said, 'out of here,'' Trump recounted. Meanwhile, an investigation by CBS' Dan Ruetenik of the Epstein jailhouse tapes turns up 'several contradictions between officials' descriptions of the video and the video itself … [which] raises questions about the strength and credibility of the government's investigation' into his suicide.
IMMIGRATION FILES: South Sudan may be open to taking in lots more deportees from the U.S. who hail from other countries — but it has steep asks of its own in return, POLITICO's Felicia Schwartz and Myah Ward report.
TALK OF THE TOWN
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — 'Ted Cruz looks to force changes to military flights near airports, after deadly airline crash,' by POLITICO's Oriana Pawlyk: The bill would include 'prohibiting the Army from turning off location-transmitting technologies such as the one under investigation as part of an inquiry into the January midair collision near Washington that killed 67 people. Cruz's announcement comes a day before the kickoff of a three-day federal fact-finding [NTSB] hearing' today into the crash.
WHITE HOUSE MOVE — Victoria LaCivita is now regional comms director at the White House. She most recently was comms director for the Office of Science and Technology Policy and is a Michigan GOP/Trump campaign and Jason Miyares alum.
MEDIA MOVE — Meghan Rafferty will be VP of news standards at Versant. She most recently has been executive producer of 'NBC Nightly News.' More from Variety
TRANSITIONS — The Treasury Department is adding Alley Adcock as deputy assistant secretary for legislative affairs, appropriations and management. She most recently was a professional staff member on the House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science Subcommittee. Treasury is also moving Hunter McMaster II to be performing the duties of assistant secretary for financial markets and Luke Pettit to acting undersecretary of domestic finance. … The Kennedy Center is adding Emily Flower as a director of PR and Amanda Fischer as a deputy director of PR. Flower previously was comms director for Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). Fischer previously was at CRC Advisors. …
… Jesse Barba is now head of federal government affairs at Cengage Group. He most recently was head of global government affairs at Chegg Inc., and is a Cassidy & Associates and Marcia Fudge alum. … Terrence Clark has joined Amazon's corporate comms team handling crisis, issues and reputation management. He most recently was senior comms adviser and spokesperson for the Justice Department, and is a Raphael Warnock alum.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Caroline Ponseti, director of comms and public affairs at Invariant, and John Lin, senior counsel at the House Energy and Commerce Committee, welcomed baby George on Friday. Pic … Another pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Nikema Williams (D-Ga.) … MSNBC's Rebecca Kutler and Isaac-Davy Aronson … The Atlantic's Shane Harris … Suzanne Nossel … former Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), Quico Canseco (R-Texas) and Wendell Bailey (R-Mo.) … Arnold Schwarzenegger … Dave Kochel … NYT's Jim Rutenberg … Michael Glassner … Mario Lopez of the Hispanic Leadership Fund … Michelle Bernard … POLITICO's Teresa Wiltz, Jeff Coltin and Tyler Weyant … Jonathan Kanter … Education Week's Lauraine Langreo … Brad Jenkins … Heidi Crebo-Rediker … Glen Chambers … Mark Beatty of Google … Jonathan Spalter of USTelecom … Bob Bissen of the National Head Start Association … Candace Randle Person … Alex Parker of Eide Bailly … Kana Smith … Emily Barson … Michael Short … Anita Hill … former CFTC Chair Tim Massad … Bill O'Leary of Heidrick & Struggles … Garry Malphrus … Ben Marter of Plus Communications … Sintia Radu … Eleanor Smeal … Herald Group's Cameron Smith … Davey McKissick of Glen Echo Group … Nora Langan … Maggie Cutrell … Maryland GOP Vice Chair Dwight Patel … April Arnold of True North Risk
Send Playbookers tips to [e-mail] or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.