Do you yearn to hear Starmer condemn Trump? If so, you're going to be disappointed
What fresh hell will Donald Trump unleash next? The question quivers on the world's lips, but Sir Keir Starmer thinks it a fool's errand trying to guess the answer. The prime minister has told colleagues not to waste any time on feverish speculation about the intentions of the US president.
This is sensible counsel after 10 days in which Typhoon Orange has wreaked havoc in global markets. His tariffs were so sweeping and so breathtakingly dumb that the hit list included a cluster of barren islands near Antarctica. Was his notoriously thin skin once pricked by an insolent penguin? Were the highest US tariffs in more than a century an ego-gratifying instrument to get other leaders to beg for mercy by 'kissing my ass'? Are tariffs designed to be a revenue-raiser cunningly disguised as an economy-wrecker? If the aim, as some claim, is to reindustralise America, creating the conditions for an inflationary slump is a strange way to go about it.
Members of the Trump regime have offered no consistent explanation for such wantonly ruinous and self-destructive acts. After days of insisting that there would be no retreat from any of it, he did back off, at least temporarily, from a lot of it. Sir Keir is correct. Trying to attribute logic to the US president's reckless impulses or to make predictions about what he will do next is a waste of nervous energy. It is safer, if scarier, to proceed from the assumption that the only certainty about Trump's world is instability.
Faced with a craziness so alien to his own nature, what's a prime minister who prides himself on his rationality to do? Sir Keir has elected to be the calm voice urging cool heads in the raging storm. That is a product of his temperament and what he takes to be good politics. When the seas are so alarmingly choppy, the last thing the passengers on HMS Britannia want to see is their captain with a sweaty brow and panicky eyes.
The prime minister has mildly suggested that trade wars are not a terribly good idea, but you should not expect a word of explicit criticism of the US president to escape from the lips of Britain's leader. This is in marked contrast with others in his peer group who share the same fears that the Trump regime has placed global security and the global economy in simultaneous peril. Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, has been highly belligerent towards the White House, and not just because it appears to be enhancing his chances of winning his country's imminent election. Friedrich Merz, the new chancellor of Germany and previously a staunch Atlanticist, has baldly declared that 'independence from the USA' has become imperative and suggested that Nato may soon be dead.
Those who yearn to hear similar sentiments coming from Sir Keir will be disappointed. Allies say he regards it as 'a duty' to try to 'get on with Trump'. There will be no Love Actually moment. Even if he had the acting chops to replicate the scene in which Hugh Grant plays a decent British PM who rebukes a bullying US president, Sir Keir wouldn't do it. In contrast with the German chancellor, he will continue to insist that the US remains the essential ally. He will carry on calling Uncle Sam a friend however little it behaves like one.
The prime minister is keen to deepen European cooperation on defence and is lobbying for British access to the new EU re-armament fund. But Sir Keir is worried by Merz-like talk about finding a European replacement for Nato. He thinks that notion dangerous because it could make a self-fulfilling prophecy of American withdrawal from the security guarantees which Europe has relied upon since 1945.
'Don't poke the beast' remains the watchword at Number 10, even as the beast rampages around chewing the legs off the global economy. One takeaway from recent turmoil is that Trump can be compelled to blink when the pressure is sufficiently intense. It was the threat of a meltdown in the US Treasury market, accompanied by warnings from some of his own supporters that the American economy faced a 'nuclear winter', that ultimately forced him to announce the '90-day pause' to the majority of his most severe tariffs bar those on China. But it would be wrong to conclude from this retreat that Britain only has to take Sir Ed Davey's advice to 'stand up' to the White House to make Trump back down. Sir Keir likes the Lib Dem leader, but scorns his demands for retaliation as juvenile. 'Slagging off Trump, calling for retaliation. If we'd done what Davey is advocating, we'd be looking at 125% tariffs,' says one government official, possibly exaggerating for effect. The UK does not wield the clout of the bond market. Should he ever forget this, Rachel Reeves is there to remind Sir Keir of the fragility of their own fiscal position. He will carry on maintaining that counter-measures would be counter-productive.
Ministers appear increasingly pessimistic about negotiating away the 10% 'baseline' tariff that has been imposed on Britain as it has been on most countries. 'Tariffs are here for good,' remarks an official. The current focus is on trying to contain the damage threatened by elevated 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium. Sir Keir hopes to attract credit for throwing lifelines to vulnerable industries, as the government did yesterday by recalling MPs from their Easter break to pass emergency legislation to take protective control of the endangered steel plant in Scunthorpe, Britain's last blast furnace facility. That's a popular government move with Labour people, and you haven't been able to name one of those for a while. 'This is not back to the 1970s,' insists one cabinet minister. 'It is assertive pragmatism to protect a key industry.' Ministers say there will also be assistance for pharmaceutical companies, big exporters to the US and a big employer in the UK, if punitive tariffs materialise. If you are in a sector that government regards as 'strategic', there'll be help. If not, good luck. The Treasury won't be riding to the rescue of every exposed industry.
Sign up to Observed
Analysis and opinion on the week's news and culture brought to you by the best Observer writers
after newsletter promotion
The mood in government was somewhat lifted by the latest figures for GDP, which suggest the economy expanded by a faster-than-expected 0.5% in February. But that was before Trump triggered carnage. The retaliatory tariff levels that the US and China are whacking on each other are so eye-wateringly extreme that they will suffocate trade between the world's two largest economies. If this is truly the 'end of globalisation as we know it', the Starmer government will need a plan for the 'changed world' its leading figures bang on about. The current plan appears to be to do what they are already doing, but with more oomph. 'Our plans don't so much change as turbocharge,' says Sir Keir. Same set of wheels, but with go-faster stripes. In truth, much of what the government has unveiled since Trump brandished his tariffs card in the Rose Garden would have been announced anyway. The easing of electric vehicle targets was in the pipeline already. As was the go-ahead for a giant Universal studios theme park in Bedfordshire.
Crisis can be an excuse to cower or it can be a spur to grasp opportunity. A growing number of Labour voices see an opening for the Starmer government to pivot towards Europe. The prime minister tells friends that the UK is being taken seriously by the rest of its continent in a way that it has not been for a decade. Trump, Ukraine and not treating the EU as an enemy have played roles in the rebuilding of bridges. But the fabled 'reset' in relations with our closest neighbours has thus far produced more warm words than it has concrete agreements that could lift growth. To sense how the wind is shifting, keep a weather eye on the chancellor. In the run-up to next month's important EU/UK summit, Ms Reeves has started using much sharper and more ambitious language about removing trade barriers with the union. 'We're getting more confident about how we talk about it in public,' says one cabinet member. Number 10 is wary of any move that might be depicted as 'undoing Brexit', but polling tells us that a chunky majority of Britons now devoutly wish that it could be undone. The perils posed to prosperity by Donald Trump make it more imperative to relieve the impediments to growth that Britain has inflicted upon itself.
'Keep calm and carry on' has served Sir Keir well in the opening phases of this crisis. Bigger, bolder moves will be demanded of him before it is over.
Andrew Rawnsley is the Chief Political Commentator of the Observer
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Herald Scotland
an hour ago
- The Herald Scotland
Immigration warning over 'less than welcoming' statements
The tone of Sir Keir's remarks on May 12 was, as observed by Mr Sheerin and many others, surely something of a surprise. And it was unexpected even with an awareness - having covered this key issue closely over months and years - of Labour's developing and lamentable stance on immigration. The Prime Minister declared: 'Nations depend on rules – fair rules. Sometimes they're written down, often they're not, but either way, they give shape to our values. They guide us towards our rights, of course, but also our responsibilities, the obligations we owe to one another. Now, in a diverse nation like ours, and I celebrate that, these rules become even more important. Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.' The 'island of strangers' was a striking turn of phrase. Sir Keir went on: 'So when you have an immigration system that seems almost designed to permit abuse, that encourages some businesses to bring in lower-paid workers rather than invest in our young people, or simply one that is sold by politicians to the British people on an entirely false premise, then you're not championing growth, you're not championing justice, or however else people defend the status quo. You're actually contributing to the forces that are slowly pulling our country apart.' Maybe with the benefit of hindsight the Prime Minister's remarks, even though they could have been uttered just as easily by the Tory Brexiters, should not have been quite so much of a shock as they were. After all, Labour has embraced the key elements of the Conservatives' hard Brexit: loss of free movement of people between the UK and European Economic Area nations and the ending of the frictionless trade from which the country previously benefited enormously when it was part of the single market. Nevertheless, Sir Keir's tone was surely surprisingly dismal, even given all of this. Not only did we have the reference to 'an island of strangers' but also this declaration: 'This strategy will finally take back control of our borders and close the book on a squalid chapter for our politics, our economy, and our country.' What seemed clear from Sir Keir's utterings was that populism most certainly did not end with the exit of Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak from the prime minister post. Sir Keir's tone contrasted so starkly with Mr Sheerin's reasoned appraisal of the Prime Minister's remarks and Labour's plans on immigration. We had this from Sir Keir: 'We do have to ask why parts of our economy seem almost addicted to importing cheap labour rather than investing in the skills of people who are here and want a good job in their community. Sectors like engineering, where visas have rocketed while apprenticeships have plummeted.' You would imagine Mr Sheerin, as a veteran of the engineering sector, knows a lot more about the specifics than Sir Keir. And it is worth observing the Scottish Engineering chief executive is passionate about people in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK being trained as engineers. He would love to see the skills shortages which are posing such a challenge to member companies of Scottish Engineering and others in the sector solved. Mr Sheerin is not a politician - just someone with deep knowledge of the Scottish engineering sector. So what did the Scottish Engineering chief have to say in his quarterly report published on Friday? Read more He declared that he found the UK Government's 'latest pronouncements on immigration disappointing', highlighting the detrimental impact on companies of 'statements that feel less than welcoming'. Mr Sheerin hammered home his view that raising minimum qualification levels from Higher equivalents to degree level would 'leave out the skilled trades and crafts roles where we are already in shortest supply: welders, fabricators, electricians, pipefitters, CNC (computer numerical control) machinists to name a few'. That is surely a crucial point. And it is worth emphasising Mr Sheerin's observation that people skilled in these roles are 'already in shortest supply'. Mr Sheerin also noted: 'The shortening of the graduate visa scheme reducing the right to work from two years to 18 months after graduating will not only hit our education sector but also reduce the attractiveness of the scheme for companies who will have a shorter timeline to decide whether to invest in the process to extend the visa of the employee.' This is another good point. And the Scottish Engineering chief executive declared: 'Whilst I recognise that this [immigration] is a contentious political issue across the UK for a whole range of reasons, in engineering and manufacturing in Scotland the reality is that immigration is a vital source of skills and experience that cannot be replaced overnight. These skills levels take years to build - and we should be building them - but closing off the supply before putting in place the actions to do that is another example of an action that will challenge the stated ambition of growing our economy.' The time horizon with regard to building skills levels is important. It might not chime with that of politicians such as Sir Keir, who seems at pains to bang the drum on immigration as Nigel Farage's Reform UK makes a big noise on this front. However, it is a simple factual point that engineering skills do take years to build. Mr Sheerin declared that a frustration for him in Labour's immigration pronouncements was that 'whereas there is considerable detail on how we plan to restrict and close this supply of skills, on the laudable stated aim that we will replace the loss with trained or upskilled UK-born workers, the detail is missing on how that will be achieved'. He added: 'And there is no detail that recognises that engineering skills take between four and six years to get to a starting level of competency. It does not seem an unreasonable request for the get-well plan to carry at least the same level of detail as the take-it-away plan.' This seems like an absolutely fair summation of the problems with Labour's populist immigration proposals. If you were asked to choose whether you think it is Sir Keir or Mr Sheerin who is on the money in relation to immigration policy and its effect on engineering and the broader economy, it would surely be the easiest of questions to answer, any day of the week.
Daily Record
2 hours ago
- Daily Record
Donald Trump and Elon Musk feud is very dangerous for the President
The political alliance between Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk has disfigured US politics. Musk helping bankroll Trump's second election victory was an example of money buying power. Being handed a job as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut spending was also wrong on a number of levels. It reeked of a massive favour to a donor and led to the dodgy practice of unaccountable allies of Musk cutting government programmes. But both individuals are ego maniacs and it was only a matter of time before they fell out spectacularly. Musk is unhappy at a Trump tax bill he believes will be financially ruinous. Sniping then led to Musk making the incendiary claim the president's name appears in the notorious Jeffrey Epstein files. Few things are more damaging reputationally than being linked to the late Epstein - just ask Prince Andrew. This developing feud between Trump and his former pal Musk is dangerous for the President. The Tesla co-founder has power and influence, both politically and in the corporate world, and he seems intent on doing damage. A positive step for the world would be if both men cancelled themselves out through their bickering. The US is known as a land of opportunity but we are in a situation where a small number of billionaires wield disproportionate power. People like Musk should be paying more in tax and held to account for the cuts he was allowed to make in government. Trump is already a lame duck president and Americans must look to a time when he is no longer in charge. Weapons in court The proliferation of weapons on our streets is bad enough. But it beggars belief that thousands of blades, guns and bullets have been seized in Scottish courtrooms in the last year as our investigation reveals. The motivation of those who would attempt to enter a court while armed is not clear. Do they think they need protection or is it to dish out retribution? Whatever the reason, it is vital courts are safe places for justice to be carried out without fear for anyone's safety. People should be able to expect to attend court as an employee, witness or accused without being worried about the threat of violence. Those sinister or stupid enough to believe they can carry weapons into a court of law should be left in no doubt their conduct is unacceptable. They should be hammered by the courts they seek to undermine.
The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
New risks emerge as America becomes less attractive
For decades, international investors have treated US government bonds as the safest place for their money. A long bull market in shares has been supported by American bonds and a sound US dollar. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the underpinning of a 'safe haven' has helped stock markets to cope with other uncertainties. Now, investors are demanding much higher returns to lend money to the US government long-term. America is becoming less attractive to global investors at a time when its government needs them for finance more than ever. There is plenty to be nervous about. The US government is spending far more than it takes in, with the deficit up this year. Trump's spending and tax cut plans are likely to add to the US national debt over the next decade. And the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in almost three years. US business confidence is weak, with the full impact of the supply turmoil yet to bite. Many manufacturers had stockpiled goods and components ahead of Trump's tariffs and import controls, but this buffer will soon be exhausted. May's stock market rally might seem reassuring on the surface. Major US technology companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia delivered strong earnings and drove most of the market gains. The biggest seven tech companies alone were responsible for more than half of the US stock market's rise in May. But these trading results do not yet reflect the full impact of the trade war and supply changes. Analysts expect slower earnings growth for these businesses over the next year. Trump still plans further action, and the tariffs to date will produce significant adverse effects; higher consumer prices, lower business investment and lower economic growth. Read more: Perhaps most worrying for investors is the inflation risk building up worldwide. As global tensions rise, governments will spend more on defence, with limited scope for tax increases. Business costs will also increase, as trade disputes continue to disrupt how goods move around the world. Global borrowing costs could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that interest rate cuts are now more uncertain. There are signs that the tension between governments that want to spend more and nervous international lenders is also playing out in the UK, EU and Japan. British government bonds – gilts- are already seeing pressure as investors become more choosy about lending to governments anywhere. The OECD report this month warned that weak consumer confidence and fragile public finances leave the UK vulnerable to shocks. Appeasing lenders by cutting spending or raising taxes would hit economic growth. The end of US exceptionalism, linked to the declining role of the US dollar as a reserve currency, may be a gradual process as it was for the UK. There is still growth in many major US businesses and the US stock market is by far the most liquid globally. Shares have a record of coping better than bonds with rising inflation and there is value is stock markets outside the US. But we may be seeing the end of an era when investors could pay less attention to currency movements. And, although government bonds have a role in diversifying portfolios along with a spread of investments internationally, it is harder now to escape geopolitical risks. The recent stock market rebound may give opportunity to rebalance portfolios. Colin McLean is a director of Barnton Capital
