Kemi Badenoch is in a hole – and she keeps digging
Photo byLabour MPs have a lot to be depressed about. The euphoria as more than 400 of them swept into parliament in July dissipated at a speed as historic as their election win. Not only has the party dropped into the polls to levels of public support not seen since before the 2019 election, but MPs who entered parliament full of ideals and optimism have had to stomach an endless string of policy announcements – from scrapping the winter fuel allowance to disability benefit cuts to the tightening of migration rules – that feel fundamentally at odds with what they went into politics to achieve. (These two things, one Labour MP wryly suggested, might in fact be connected.)
But there is one thing that keeping Labour spirits from collapsing entirely. And that is the Leader of the Opposition.
'She cheers us up every week,' one Labour MP said of Kemi Badenoch's sparring matches against Keir Starmer at PMQs. Another pointed out how visibly more relaxed the Prime Minister seems in his weekly Commons performances, loosening up enough to tell jokes that actually land and at times looking like he even enjoys the experience.
The list of frustrations Conservative MPs have with their leader is growing – but right at the top are her efforts at PMQs. Badenoch frequently chooses to ignore the headline issue of the day to focus either on pet projects inspired by the right-wing Twittersphere (the details of which sometimes come back to haunt her), or on areas where justifiable criticism of Labour opens her up to counter-attacks about the Tories' own record. She seems incapable of taking advantage of moments where Starmer is obviously under pressure from his own MPs, and – as last week's reaction (or lack thereof) to the announcement of a U-turn on winter fuel cuts showed – has an uncanny ability to miss open goals.
Tories – even those critical to Badenoch – are quick to point out the impossibility of her situation, attempting to rebuild a party from the ashes when there is an insurgent challenger on the right consuming all the airtime. There is general consensus that no one in that position would be doing well at this stage in a parliament, and that the party needs time to recover.
But at the same time, Badenoch is making a bad situation worse – from interviews where the main takeaway is that she hates sandwiches to the recent row over use of a private car and driver as when she was trade secretary. (The fact Badenoch is reported to once again be unhappy about the car arrangements provided to her as opposition leader is, one Tory source despaired, an unforced error of 'galactic proportions'.) Overall, the mood is one of dismay that, the 'box office' firebrand who was meant to terrify Starmer has proved such a disappointment.
Labour figures, however, had a very different perception of Badenoch before she became leader. Contrary to what was breathlessly written in Telegraph columns, the candidate they really feared was James Cleverly, who was considered 'the most dangerous opponent' for a variety of reasons: his likeability within the party and ability to unite the Tories and boost morale after a defeat; his skill at media; and his pitch to bring the Conservatives towards the centre ground, rather than chasing Reform.
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One Labour MP recalls a 'palpable sense of elation' in the Commons tearoom when the shock announcement came that Cleverly had been knocked out of the contest (thanks to a vote-swapping debacle), leaving Badenoch to face Robert Jenrick in a head-to-head of Conservative members. The relief was felt among both Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs that the biggest threat to them had been eliminated.
Jenrick is viewed as the de facto successor if Badenoch is ousted – a point Starmer made at PMQs recently by congratulating those who had run the London marathon and joking that the shadow justice secretary was 'still running'. Labour MPs have mixed views of Jenrick's chances of reviving the official opposition. One suggested he might be a bit 'slicker' on TV, and Jenrick's work ethic was mentioned (he's been all over the country since the election, doing hundreds of events with Conservative groups while Badenoch's reputation for being 'lazy' is only growing). But no one thought this would be enough to solve the Tories' problems.
That's in part because the biggest problem for the Conservatives is Reform – and another leader attempting to be 'Farage-lite' will do nothing to neutralise that threat. And it's a threat, of course, that applies to Labour too.
Labour MPs began noticing the shift in Starmer's attitude even before the Prime Minister said he considered Reform to be the government's main opposition. Planted questions at PMQs have enabled Starmer to take aim at Farage, on issues ranging from workers' rights to green jobs, and he rarely misses an opportunity to connect Reform to the economic calamity of Liz Truss. The Prime Minister gave an entire speech on that subject on Thursday, accusing Farage of 'the same fantasy' as Truss after the Reform leader announced a slate of policies earlier in the week that would add tens of billions to government spending. Farage, Starmer argued, was 'Truss 2.0'. The Lib Dems have gone for the even catchier line 'Trussonomics on steroids'.
Where does all this leave Badenoch? As effectively irrelevant, I was told by a Labour source – which could be both a blessing and a curse. 'We're torn between wanting her to stay because of how bad she is, and hoping the Conservatives improve because that might put some pressure on Reform.'
It's unclear what form such improvement could take. It's hard to see who on the opposition benches could be a leader who takes the Tories back into government (the names being floated – by both Labour and Tory figures – have only been in parliament a matter of months). There was doubt among Labour MPs that Cleverly would ever make it in a vote among the Tory membership (speculation that might not be accurate, I was told by a Reform source, who wondered whether the exodus of Conservative members to Nigel Farage's party might have changed the membership so radically Cleverly would have a much better chance now than in October). The suggestion of a Boris Johnson comeback was greeted with laughter ('Good luck to him').
But even with the lack of options, Labour figures said they expected the Tories to get frustrated and find a way to oust Badenoch, if not by the end of the year then around the time of next May's local elections. However bad the polls are for Labour, they are worse for the Conservatives, one MP pointed out, flagging the 'extinction-level' poll that put the Tories in fourth place. 'Kemi is getting nowhere.'
[See also: Inside the Conservative Party's existential spiral]
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New Statesman
3 hours ago
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New Statesman
3 hours ago
- New Statesman
The town that loathes Keir Starmer
A boat passes through the northern industrial town of Burnley. Photo by Lancashire Images /Alamy On the shop floor of Burnley's last mill, 28 looms are thrashing away with a dull roar. At modern machines all around this stone factory, workers are diligently constructing the product that turned this town from a backwater into a centre of global capitalism: one man examines a roll of fabric for flaws; behind a glass partition a group of young women are sewing; upstairs others map out new patterns on CAD software. Steven Eastwood, who has driven forklifts around Ashfield Mill for decades, remembers a time when his employer still had local competitors. Now, from a peak of 99,000 looms a little over a century ago, only the weaving machines in this room remain in commercial operation. As Burnley's traditional industry has faded so too has its connection to Labour, its traditional politics. 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Born locally into a 'very poor working class family' she has been living in Bonn for the last two decades. When she moved back to Burnley recently she was shocked at the area's decline. 'I came back to a society that I could not recognise behaviour wise, attitude wise,' she says. 'I love this town but it's so run down. Betting shops, charity shops, boarded up shops. It breaks my heart.' She estimates her quality of life was 10 times higher in Germany doing the same job. At one school at which she now teaches, 14 and 15-year-olds have the literacy levels of primary school children. At another, a charity had to buy Christmas presents for pupils because their parents could not afford any. 'That was not the case when I was last teaching in the UK,' she says. 'I couldn't believe it.' A former Labour voter, she cannot understand why, in her eyes, the government is determined to penalise those in need of help. 'They're taking the Winter Fuel Allowance away, taking farmers' inheritance from them, they have no plan on illegal immigration and public services are on the floor.' Janine is now convinced the party's core voters will abandon them for Reform. 'I never thought I would say I wouldn't vote Labour but at the last election I voted Green even though I knew they wouldn't win,' she adds. Paul, a bus driver nursing a hot drink nearby, insists he cannot begin to talk about Starmer because his opinions will be unprintable. 'The government is fucking too right wing,' he eventually says. 'They're fucking backwards bastards on everything.' They are targeting people who have worked 'all of their bastard life', he says. 'Even the Conservatives left the Winter Fuel Allowance alone – they knew not to touch the pensioners.' Until last year, Paul had always voted Labour. At the next election he will not turn out at all. 'I don't like Farage, he's too fascist,' he says. 'I don't trust any of them.' When I say that Starmer wants to be able to tell the people of Burnley he has made a genuine difference to their lives, Paul laughs. 'I don't think that whichever government has ever been in they've ever had an impact on my life. You work your arse off all your life and they screw you.' Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Manning the till in a British Heart Foundation shop on Burnley's high street, Amanda says that she also used to support Labour. Now, she believes the party is 'not doing such a good job' in office. 'They've not done what they said they were going to do. Their decisions have been bad,' she says. 'As a person Keir Starmer seems alright. As a politician he's not doing a good job.' Shops are closing in Burnley, but at least it's not as bad as nearby Nelson, another Lancashire mill town, which has now become a 'dump', she claims. 'The government always say they will give us money but we never see any of it, or they spend it on stupid stuff.' At the next election, Amanda plans to vote for the Liberal Democrats or the Greens. 'They seem to believe in their principles more. The Conservatives and Labour have been in power for so long. They always get in so they've become a bit more complacent.' Like many Burnley residents, Afrasiab Anwar was brought up on traditional Labour values. After moving away for university he came back to his hometown in 2002, a year after local race riots saw white men attack takeaways and Asians firebomb a pub. 'It wasn't a place I recognised,' he says now. In an attempt to improve the town, he began working for the local authority before winning election to represent Labour himself and then, in 2021, becoming the council leader. In November 2023, however, when Starmer failed to call for a Gaza ceasefire, he and 10 other Labour representatives quit the party. Anwar's Burnley Independent Group now runs the local authority in coalition with Lib Dem and Green councillors. [See also: Why is Birmingham leading Britain's child poverty spiral?] Sitting in his office within Burnley's grand town hall, he is contemptuous of the government he once wished to see elected. 'It's been a complete letdown in every aspect. There's been nothing for places like Burnley. There's been no additional investment,' he says. 'Traditional Labour voters, what are they getting? Working-class people, what are they getting out of this Labour government? The two child benefit cap, the winter fuel allowance. It's the complete opposite of what a Labour government stands for.' On the doorstep, Anwar claims, voters tell him they did not believe things could decline further after 14 years of austerity. Under Starmer's government, though, 'they think it's far worse'. Burnley has long struggled to manage an uneven transition from the days of King Cotton. In 2019, it was ranked as the eighth most deprived area in England. It has some of the highest rates of fuel poverty, health deprivation and child poverty in the country. At the same time, however, the town has become a centre of high tech manufacturing that has seen it touted as a model for northern revitalisation. Former mills have been turned into campuses for the University of Central Lancashire; local firms engineer ultra-lightweight parts for Airbus planes. Anwar is convinced the old ways of doing politics here are gone: Labour's ties to their core support are irreparably broken. 'People are much cleverer now,' he says. 'They vote for people who they think will represent them, who will be their voice and who are genuinely a part of the town, a part of the fabric of the place.' While Labour won Burnley at the last election, its vote share dropped. Having received the endorsement of Muslim community leaders, Lib Dem candidate and former MP Gordon Birtwistle shot up to second place. When I ask Anwar if he plans to challenge his old party at the next general election he insists he is focused on running the council for now. For many others in Burnley, Westminster simply has no relevance to their lives. Standing on the high street, Uwais, a young boxing trainer in a green shell suit, says he has no opinion of Starmer at all. He does not watch television. He does not follow the news. 'I don't think it makes much difference,' he says. 'There's still potholes and shit.' In any case, he insists, Burnley is great. He pivots to gesture at a ragged figure smoking on a nearby street corner. 'Look at that guy over there on spice: he's living his dream!' Luc Paul would vote but he has no ID. On a break from his shift at a children's toy shop, he tells me he is appalled at Starmer's volte-face on trans rights. In opposition, the prime minister said there was a 'desperate need' to introduce gender self-ID. Now, he does not believe that trans-women are women. 'I don't think he stands for anything. He only wants power so he can get money for himself,' Luc Paul says. 'The Greens, Lib Dems and the Scottish party have a lot more going for them.' Cradling his walking stick under his arm and smoking a rolled cigarette, Steven says he remains a Labour supporter but does not know anyone who could run the country now. 'The government aren't meeting the requirements,' he says. After being admitted to the Royal Blackburn Teaching Hospital recently for a routine operation (Burnley's A&E closed in 2007), his wife picked up an infection and became seriously unwell. He blames outsourced agency staff for messing up her care. Retired on health grounds himself, he says the government has not helped to improve his life to date. 'It's a case of surviving,' he adds glumly. What does Starmer stand for? Steven says he cannot put his finger on it. Perhaps the most positive assessment of the government available in Burnley is that it has simply not yet had time to get to grips with problems that long predate its election. Perhaps further decline is just to be expected. Perhaps Britain is headed inevitably in the same direction as Burnley's mills whichever party is elected. John, an older man standing alone by a handsome stone building, says that of course Starmer is going to make mistakes. 'They're miles better than the previous government,' he says. He plans to back Labour again at the next election. 'I don't think Starmer's doing a bad job,' he says. 'You've got to remember what they came into office to. You've got to bear in mind it's not going to turn around too quickly.' [See also: Reform UK's taproom revolutionaries] Related
The National
3 hours ago
- The National
Labour has 'given up' on Hamilton by-election, says John Swinney
Scotland's First Minister was speaking as the campaign for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse vote entered its final weekend. With the 'crucial' vote taking place on Thursday, June 5, Swinney said backing the SNP candidate means people in the area will 'elect an MSP who will deliver on their priorities'. Labour however, insisted that the by-election – taking place after the death of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie – is a 'chance to call time on SNP failure and choose a new direction'. READ MORE: Police investigating 'antisemitic graffiti' in Scottish city as hate crime Jackie Baillie, the Scottish Labour deputy leader, insisted only her party can defeat the SNP despite her party's candidate's abysmally poor campaign. She said Reform UK 'can't win' the seat, while adding that she believes that the SNP 'don't deserve' to do so. Baillie (below) said: 'We can see the consequences of SNP incompetence right across this community – people languishing on NHS waiting lists, high street shops struggling to stay open, and kids not getting the education they deserve. (Image: Jane Barlow/PA Wire) 'It's clear the SNP does not deserve to win this by-election and only Scottish Labour can beat them.' She added that Reform UK, led by Farage, 'can't win here' – declaring: 'This is a direct fight between Scottish Labour and the SNP, no matter how much Reform and the SNP want to pretend otherwise.' Swinney said, 'things are really tough right now for many people, with the cost of living a real issue'. But the First Minister insisted that 'while others shout, the SNP is acting'. He pointed to the action his party is taking at Holyrood to scrap peak rate rail fares, to pay winter fuel payments to pensioners, and to end the two-child cap on some benefits – a move expected to come in next year. Swinney continued: 'Labour have let people across Scotland down, and they have quite clearly given up on this by-election. 'Thursday's vote is now a straight contest between the SNP and Nigel Farage – and I am urging people to reject the ugly, divisive politics of Nigel Farage and to unite behind the SNP.' Katy Loudon, the SNP's candidate for the seat, meanwhile, declared that if she is voted into Holyrood, she will 'get on with the job from day one'. She said: 'This by-election is an opportunity to put the priorities of people in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse first, and my promise to local people is this – I will always stand with you, fight for you and deliver for you.'
