Obesity lab: India becomes ground zero for weight-loss drug race

Time of India

6 days ago

India is rapidly transforming into a crucial focal point for the global weight management industry, serving as both a significant market for novel anti-obesity drugs and a burgeoning hub for the production of their more affordable generic versions.
This dual role is driven by an escalating obesity crisis within the country, coupled with the impending patent expirations of blockbuster weight loss medications and robust government incentives.
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Global pharmaceutical giants like Novo Nordisk have recently launched Wegovy, intensifying competition with Eli Lilly's Mounjaro which debuted earlier this year, while Indian pharmaceutical companies such as Dr. Reddy's, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Biocon, and Lupin are actively developing their own generic versions, aiming for market entry as early as 2026 once key patents expire.
Innovator drugs enter the Indian market
Global pharmaceutical giants have recognised India's significant market potential, launching their advanced anti-obesity medications.
Eli Lilly & Co. launched its anti-obesity drug, Mounjaro (Tirzepatide), in India in March 2025. The company introduced the drug in a single-dose vial after receiving marketing authorisation from the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO).
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According to data compiled by Pharmarack, Mounjaro recorded sales of nearly ₹24 crore in its first three months (March–May). More recent data from ET indicates Mounjaro's usage doubled in June, with sales value growing by 18% to ₹50 crore for that month alone.
The Economic Times reported that a 2.5 mg vial of Mounjaro is priced at ₹3,500, and a 5 mg vial at ₹4,375, translating to ₹14,000–17,500 per month depending on weekly dose. A six-month treatment could cost about ₹1 lakh.
Sales of 2.5 mg injections rose to ₹5.08 crore in May from ₹4.80 crore in April and ₹1.42 crore in March, when it was launched, according to PharmaTrac data.
Danish firm Novo Nordisk also launched its anti-obesity drug, Wegovy (Semaglutide 2.4 mg), in major Indian cities on June 24. Originally planned for 2026, Novo Nordisk advanced Wegovy's launch to mid-2025 to directly challenge Mounjaro and capitalise on rising demand.
Wegovy is available in five dose strengths in India. The 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, and 1 mg versions are priced at ₹4,336.25. The monthly cost would be ₹17,345, similar to Mounjaro. The 1.7 mg dose is priced at ₹24,280, and the 2.4 mg version at ₹26,015 for a month's supply.
India's growing middle and upper-middle classes can afford higher-cost treatments, making the country attractive to drug innovators. For example, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, priced between ₹14,000–17,500 per month, has already seen significant uptake.
Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide drug, Rybelsus, launched in January 2022, has grown from ₹26 crore to ₹412 crore, commanding a two-thirds share of the GLP-1 market.
Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based Mounjaro, introduced in March 2025, clocked ₹50 crore in sales within its first quarter, capturing 8% of the market. Unit sales jumped from 11,637 in March to nearly 88,000 by June, nearly half of which were the 2.5 mg starter dose, indicating high patient onboarding and adherence.
Novo Nordisk's injectable Wegovy, launched in late June 2025, sold 1,788 units worth ₹2.53 crore across five dosage strengths, likely driven by patients previously using imported versions.
India's middle and upper-middle classes are now not just ablea to afford premium treatments: they're willing to. A once-unthinkable ₹15,000/month drug like Mounjaro is gaining real traction. That's not just a signal of rising income, it's a shift in mindset: people are prioritising preventive and lifestyle healthcare.
Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus growing 15x in two years shows this isn't a one-off. It's a trend. And with Mounjaro hitting ₹50 crore in just one quarter, the demand for GLP-1s, whether for diabetes or weight loss, is real and scaling fast.
High uptake of low starter doses also suggests something else: these aren't just prescriptions handed out to a few elite patients. Doctors are onboarding a lot of new users, and those users are sticking with the meds, at least through the early stages.
For the right kind of innovative drugs, especially in chronic lifestyle conditions, it's becoming a viable, profitable market even at global price points.
Generic tsunami looms as patents near expiry
The landscape of weight management drugs in India is poised for a significant shift with the impending patent expirations of Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, a class of medications used for both type 2 diabetes and obesity.
Key patents for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, are set to expire around January 2026 in some regions and sometime next year in India. This "patent cliff" is a major catalyst for Indian generic manufacturers and Indian pharmaceutical companies are readying to bring in a range of generic versions of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide.
The move could open up cheaper access to weight-loss and diabetes drugs, possibly setting off a generics boom worth billions.
Novo Nordisk's semaglutide franchise generated $17 billion from Ozempic and $8.4 billion from Wegovy in 2024 alone, as per the company's 2024 annual financial results.
Patents for semaglutide are expected to lapse in over 100 countries, including Canada (January 2026), Brazil (March 2026), and India.
Indian pharma prepares to scale up
Now, major Indian players, including Dr. Reddy's, Biocon, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Lupin, and Aurobindo Pharma, are positioning themselves strategically.
Bengaluru-based OneSource Specialty Pharma is investing $100 million to scale up production, anticipating a revenue jump to $400 million within three years. Neeraj Sharma, CEO of OneSource, said in a media interview, 'Semaglutide will be a big part of it,' citing growing demand.
Dr. Reddy's CFO MV Narasimham stated that the company is ready for a "high-volume, low-cost" market and has end-to-end capabilities, as reported by Moneycontrol. Dr. Reddy's, which has been developing semaglutide for over a decade, is preparing for a global rollout, including injectable and oral formulations.
Biocon Chairperson Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw called the opportunity "very huge," noting the company's unique portfolio of GLP-1s and insulins. Biocon has already launched oral GLP-1 diabetes drug Liraglutide in the UK.
Biocon received CDSCO approval for its generic Liraglutide substance and product on June 2. It was also the first generic Liraglutide approved in the UK (March 2024), launched in February 2025, and approved in the EU (December 2024), demonstrating India's capability in complex peptide manufacturing.
Zydus Lifesciences is investing over ₹100 crore ($12 million) in a new manufacturing facility using proprietary technology to produce cost-effective semaglutide, as per Moneycontrol.
Hyderabad-based Divi's Laboratories, a key supplier of semaglutide components, has reported strong growth in its peptide business amid rising global demand, with HSBC projecting it to generate around $450 million in revenue from peptides by 2030.
Cipla signals intent to join the fray
Cipla, a major Indian drug firm, is actively preparing to enter the weight management segment in India. As reported by PTI on July 13, Umang Vohra, Cipla's MD and Global CEO, stated in the company's Annual Report for 2024-25, 'Obesity is emerging as a priority area for Cipla. With a clear strategic intent, we are preparing to enter the weight management segment in India, aiming to address the rising demand for effective obesity solutions.'
Cipla's consolidated revenue stood at ₹27,548 crore in FY25, with a net profit of ₹5,272 crore.
Government support and 'Make in India' for global export
The Indian government is actively supporting domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing through its Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. With an outlay of ₹1.97 lakh crore across 14 sectors, the scheme aims to boost the production of complex drugs, including Key Starting Materials (KSMs), Drug Intermediates, and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), as per the Press Information Bureau.
In 2024-25, the government disbursed ₹10,114 crore under the PLI schemes, with pharmaceutical drugs receiving ₹2,328 crore, as reported by ET.
Further, specific incentives for GLP-1 receptor agonists under the PLI framework are anticipated. Bloomberg reported on June 28 last year that Arunish Chawla, secretary with the Department of Pharmaceuticals, confirmed a PLI scheme for drugs used in the treatment of obesity and diabetes would be introduced in 2026. This aims to support domestic production of GLP-1 drugs.
This government backing, combined with patent expirations, is intended to position India not just as a domestic supplier but also as a major global exporter of affordable generic GLP-1s.
India's escalating obesity crisis
India is grappling with a rapidly increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, impacting not just adults but children as well. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), almost half of all children under five who were overweight or living with obesity in 2024 resided in Asia — underscoring the regional impact.
India's status as the 'Diabetes Capital of the World,' with 77 million adults living with diabetes (WHO), runs parallel with the obesity epidemic.
A 2024 study published in the International Journal of Research and Review found that 29.7% of children aged 6–12 in Lucknow were overweight or obese, nearly three times the national average of 8.4%. This early trend of metabolic dysfunction provides a key 'laboratory' for studying disease progression and treatment responses.
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Market projections and challenges ahead
The global market for GLP-1-based weight loss drugs is projected to more than triple over the next six years, rising from $13.84 billion in 2024 to $48.84 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 18.5%, according to Grand View Research.
India's growth trajectory is even sharper. The domestic GLP-1 receptor agonist market, valued at $110.55 million in 2024, is expected to grow at a 34.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 — nearly twice the global rate. This growth is driven by rising cases of type 2 diabetes and obesity, increased R&D, patent expiries, and the expected entry of generics.
According to the International Diabetes Federation's 2024 report, nearly 9 million Indian adults are currently at risk of diabetes. That figure could rise to 185 million by 2050, as projected by Grand View Research.
This rising disease burden is already reshaping India's pharmaceutical market. PharmaTrac data shows the anti-obesity drug market in India reached ₹628 crore as of June 2025, a fivefold increase over five years, driven by GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide. With a 46% CAGR, this is now the fastest-growing therapeutic segment in the Indian pharma space. GLP-1s account for 75% of the market by value.
Despite booming demand, manufacturing GLP-1 drugs remains technically challenging. These peptide-based therapies require advanced facilities, significant investment, and specialised expertise. Delivery devices like injection pens add further complexity to the supply chain.
Legal battles are already unfolding. In May, Novo Nordisk sued Dr. Reddy's and OneSource Specialty in Delhi High Court, seeking to block domestic sales of their semaglutide generics. For now, Indian companies can continue to manufacture and export the drug.
Still, the global potential is massive. Goldman Sachs now estimates the anti-obesity drug market could hit $95 billion by 2030.