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Politico

19-02-2025

Presented by TikTok Sparks Good Canada
Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.
In today's edition:
→ Back and forth with border mayors.
→ Trump vs. North America's integrated and intertwined automobile supply chain.
→ Hockey night in Beantown.
DRIVING THE DAY
OVER THE RIVER — The closer Canadians live to the United States, the likelier it is they take the border for granted.
In many places, Canadians don't even talk about crossing the border. They just go 'over the river' to see friends and family, get in some outlet shopping or catch a football game.
— Tight knit: Niagara Falls Mayor JIM DIODATI says his family is evenly split between both sides. His best friend lives in western New York.
Windsor Mayor DREW DILKENS obtained an MBA in Michigan. His kids were born in Detroit.
In steeltown Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Mayor MATT SHOEMAKER tells Playbook the identically named town across the St. Marys River — a community about one-fifth the size of its Ontario counterpart — lacks a public swimming pool. If Michiganders want to take a dip, many just cross the bridge.
Border towns make for essential economic nodes within massive supply chains, but their interconnectedness is often more human than widget.
— Watch the skies: Which is why the whirring of Black Hawk helicopters, dispatched in recent weeks as part of Canada's C$1.3 billion promise of beefed-up borders to DONALD TRUMP, might sound out of place to locals.
The bolstered RCMP and Ontario Provincial Police chopper fleets are visual signals of a deeply uncertain moment in Canada-U.S. relations.
As the choppers have taken to the air, Trump has launched repeated threats to kill Canada's auto sector, freeze out dairy and lumber imports, slap tariffs on everything and annex his northern neighbor by economic force.
— Top of the agenda: Needless to say, these days border residents are feeling their feelings — and thinking twice about crossing over.
Take ALLAN MACEACHERN's residents in St. Stephen, New Brunswick, a small town across the St. Croix River from Calais, Maine. 'They're upset. It's a punch in the gut, so to speak, from our neighbors. I'll say neighbor,' he said, referring to Trump. 'That's the problem. Our neighbors are taking the heat for it.'
In Windsor, Dilkens points to another factor in any Canadian reluctance to visit Detroit: the weak exchange rate as the loonie struggles against the greenback.
'The high U.S. dollar makes me second guess going over there and spending any money, because it's just not worth it,' he says.
— How to make friends influence people: Dilkens chairs an upstart Border Mayors Alliance, a fledgling group of three-dozen-plus mayors — and counting — that grew out of an Ontario-only group that formed during the Covid era.
You know, back when the border shuttered and Canadians were suddenly very aware of their inability to leave.
The alliance's primary goal is to find municipal allies across the border who can influence U.S. lawmakers — a trickle-up effort that feeds Canada's provincial and federal efforts.
They report their interactions to Canada's embassy and consulates, contributing to a database of key American contacts who could possibly speak up for Canada.
Dilkens is looking to maximize speaking engagements in the Detroit area. He says the embassy is 'doing very targeted research so that mayors are empowered with all the right information' when they have the ear of Americans.
— Key reading: In Niagara Falls, Diodati says he bought Trump's 'The Art of the Deal' when it hit bookstores in 1987: 'I was a young entrepreneur. I was intrigued by Donald Trump, and I liked his personality and the way he negotiated deals.'
Diodati's take on Trump's talk of tariffs and annexation? 'He's negotiating,' he said. 'I get his MO. It didn't offend me, but I can see how a lot of people are hurt by it, because they think we're too close for someone to take a shot like that.'
— What's new is old: In Cornwall, Ontario, Mayor JUSTIN TOWNDALE says the sound of chopper blades is likely to become just another part of border life.
'It's going to get old, in a sense, really quickly, because it's there day to day,' he said. 'It's one of those things that you eventually tune out.'
For your radar
TODAY IN PARIS — European and other world leaders — including the PM via videoconference — will hold a second emergency summit as pressure grows to forge a cohesive response to DONALD TRUMP's divisive plan to end the war in Ukraine.
Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY said Tuesday that she wants Canada to play a role in keeping the peace in Ukraine after Russia's war ends.
— The latest headline: Trump snaps back at President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, blaming Ukraine for the war.
— Meanwhile in Riyadh: Russia and the United States met for 'a very serious conversation,' according to Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN's top aide YURI USHAKOV.
The talk lasted about 4.5 hours. POLITICO's CSONGOR KÖRÖMI reports: 'Ukraine's future was on the agenda — Russia has been waging a full-scale war there for three years and the U.S. is determined to claim swaths of the country's mineral wealth — though Kyiv was left out of the discussions.'
Trump said the first day of talks were 'very good' and 'I think I have the power to end this war.'
— Culture shock: POLITICO's JONATHAN MARTIN was at the Munich Security Conference where foreign ministers were working to make sense of the nonsensical. 'The deeper, and more consequential, question here was what if anything can be done to placate Trump,' he wrote. 'The immediate solution was a familiar one, often heard during his first time as president: spend more on defense.'
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Montreal and will make an announcement with Transport and Internal Trade Minister ANITA ANAND. The Star scoops that the PM will announce plans for a high-speed rail line from Toronto to Quebec City.
The PM will also virtually participate in a meeting on Ukraine and European security hosted by the French President EMMANUEL MACRON.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines an evening party fundraiser at a private residence in Woodbridge, Ontario.
— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released his itinerary.
— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Edmonton where he will join the CUPE Local 3550 picket line with MPs BLAKE DESJARLAIS and HEATHER MCPHERSON, along with NDP candidate for Edmonton Centre TRISHA ESTABROOKS.
— Green Co-Leader ELIZABETH MAY is heading to a Guelph Greens fundraiser with ANNE-MARIE ZAJDLIK. Co-Leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT will attend private meetings in Ottawa before heading back to Montreal later in the day.
DULY NOTED
— Liberal leadership contender MARK CARNEY headlines a pair of evening campaign fundraisers in the Greater Toronto Area: first at The Quay on Toronto's waterfront; and later at the Montecassino Event Venue in Woodbridge, a short drive from Poilievre's event.
— PAT KING, one of the organizers of the 2022 convoy protest in Ottawa, will be sentenced in an Ottawa courtroom today.
HALLWAY CONVERSATION
SO MANY QUESTIONS — President DONALD TRUMP's tariffs would wallop automotive production across North America, industry reps told our pal ARI HAWKINS on the trade team.
FLAVIO VOLPE of Canada's Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association spoke with Hawkins about the impact of the tariffs on North America's highly integrated and deeply intertwined automobile supply chain. Members of Volpe's APMA control about 90 percent of independent parts production in Canada.
Here are some takeaways from the conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity.
Why is the automotive sector especially at risk in terms of these tariffs?
It's the most highly integrated transnational industry in the world. … Two million cars [are] made in Canada a year. One million are American cars. Fifty percent of the parts that go in all 2 million cars come from American parts suppliers or plants. Fifty-five percent of the raw materials that go into all these parts and cars come from American sources, like steel from Pennsylvania and residents from Texas.
It sounds like there will be an effort to shift manufacturing away from the U.S., but because of the nature of the industry, that'll be really tough?
Yeah. And also, the biggest competition is China, not Canada. And the American auto sector, which is heavily invested in Mexico, relies on Mexico. … So, if the objective is to compete with China, I couldn't draw up a worse playbook than the one that he's proposing.
What do you think is sort of the most interesting aspect of all this? Or do you think the media isn't covering any part of this correctly?
We have to do a better job in the auto industry of explaining how inelastic all this car making capital is, so you understand that not only will it not move, it will actually shut down immediately. And, unfortunately, I think with Trump, he may have to go past the brink to learn that lesson.
Talk of the town
IT'S ALL POLITICS — None of the Canadian or American hockey players who played in Saturday's emotional 4 Nations Face-Off showdown pointed to the politics of the day when they reflected on the astonishing three fights in the game's first nine seconds.
But Team USA's general manager acknowledged during a Monday interview with Fox News that on-ice theatrics don't exist in a vacuum.
Check out this exchange between anchor BILL HEMMER and guest BILL GUERIN:
Hemmer: 'Was there bad blood prior, was it the booing of the anthem, or do you think it had something to do with the politics of the day between our two countries?'
Guerin: 'I think a little bit of everything. Canada-U.S. is a huge rivalry in hockey. I think there was a little bit of a political flare to it. It's just the time that we're in. I think our guys used that as inspiration. If you let it get the better of you, then you're in trouble. But I really do think the players used it as inspiration.'
— Thursday night fireworks: The championship rematch tomorrow in Boston isn't some winner-take-all exercise in nationalist fervor whipped up by DONALD TRUMP's musings about his largest trading partner's lack of viability as a nation.
Except, yeah, it sort of is, for legions of Canadian hockey die-hards and some Americans, too. The guy who assembled Team USA said it out loud.
— The big question: Will Trump show up at TD Garden tomorrow? (Yes, the arena's naming rights belong to a Canadian bank — until 2045, at least.)
MEDIA ROOM
— The Tuesday edition of 'The Daily' pod serves up a timely primer on Trump loyalist and trade adviser PETER NAVARRO.
— The New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal's ADAM HURAS scooped the province's decision to pay a U.S.-based lobbyist to make its case in Washington.
— POLITICO's MEGAN MESSERLY and BOB KING report that Trump has signed a sweeping executive order bringing independent agencies under the control of the White House
— RAISA PATEL, TONDA MACCHARLES and MARK RAMZY interrogated Trump's growing list of Canada gripes.
— ADRIAN HUMPHREYS of the National Post explains what the 'Treaty Between the United States of America and the United Kingdom Concerning the Boundary Between the United States and the Dominion of Canada From the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean' really is, what it means, and why Trump might be trying to weaponize it.
— From the Star's ALLAN WOODS: Why U.S. peace talks with Putin are sparking panic in Europe (and why that may leave Canada to face Donald Trump alone).
PROZONE
For POLITICO subscribers, our latest policy headlines:
— Trump floats 25 percent tariffs on autos, other goods.
— China, US tangle at WTO over Trump's tariffs.
— Researchers pull plug on project to save sea ice.
— Trump's oil ambitions face harsh economic and geologic realities.
— Europe's peace offerings to Trump: Gas, cars and guns.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to uOttawa prof and podcaster ELIZABETH DUBOIS and JESS SPINDLER, director of policy to Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI. Retired MP BILL CASEY is 80 today.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send details our way.
Noted: The Conservatives sent us an updated count of nominated federal candidates: 234. Find our candidate tracker in Tuesday editions of Ottawa Playbook.
Spotted: Trade Minister MARY NG, trade missioning in Australia … A full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal, paid for by the Ontario government to promote the province's energy exports and critical minerals.
Movers and shakers: Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE will not be seeking reelection … Former senior public servant GRAHAM FLACK is now a senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute … GRACE HALLMAN joins Sussex Strategy as marketing manager … TAYLOR KYTE is associate consultant at Global Public Affairs.
TRIVIA
Tuesday's answer: 'Well, welcome to the 1980s,' Prime Minister PIERRE TRUDEAU said on the night he and the Liberals won back power in Parliament on Feb. 18, 1980. More via the CBC archives.
Props to MARJORY LEBRETON, JIM MUNSON, WAYNE EASTER, DAN MCCARTHY, GORD MCINTOSH, BOB GORDON, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, MATTHEW CONWAY, MATT POIRIER, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, MALCOLM MCKAY, KEVIN COLBOURNE, BOB PLAMONDON, ELIZABETH BURN, SUSAN KEYS, ANDREW SZENDE, NANCI WAUGH, CHRIS RANDS, PAUL PARK, DOUG SWEET, KEVIN BOSCH, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, RAY DEL BIANCO, MARCEL MARCOTTE, DAVID MCLENNAN, GORDON RANDALL, ANDREW FITZPATRICK and MARK AGNEW.
Also to FRANCIS DOWNEY, JOHN ECKER, STEPHEN HAAS, LAURA JARVIS, JOANNA PLATER, GREG MACEACHERN, DON PHILLIPS, ADAM SMITH, NICHOLAS GALL, FELIX BERNIER — and (of course) to ROBERT MCDOUGALL.
Props + 1: BOB ERNEST, MALCOLM MCKAY.
Wednesday's question: Who said the following: 'We have agreed to rationalize the production of our respective industries and to expand our production and trade through a dismantling of tariff and other barriers in the automotive field. This wasn't accomplished easily, and it could not have been accomplished at all if there had not been that mutual understanding, good will, and confidence which has grown up between our two countries.'
Answers to [e-mail]
Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MIKE BLANCHFIELD.
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