iPhone exports to US trump last year numbers by 76%
Apple
's vendors shipped 2.9 million iPhones to the United States from India in April, according to market research firm Omdia, a 76% surge year-on-year, as the American tech firm persisted with its plan to meet domestic demand from the South Asian nation despite President Donald Trump's mounting pressure to switch to manufacturing locally. Similar numbers are expected in May, following the company's move to shift production out of China to reduce its overreliance on a single production base. In April, China suffered a commensurate 76% fall in iPhone exports to the US, at 900,000 units, from 3.7 million a year ago, Omdia said. Market tracker Counterpoint Research said its initial estimates peg iPhone exports from India to the US in April to be around 2.9-3 million.
The April numbers were, however, lower than in March, when the Cupertino-based company raced to meet the April 2 deadline when the US imposed steep retaliatory tariffs on countries with which it had a trade deficit, with China the hardest hit. Industry executives said that Apple's shift toward India was accelerating and that the lower export volume in April was in line with the weak shipments usually seen in the April-June period, ahead of the launch of new models in the September quarter.
Tariff Threat
Apple has to contend with President Trump's threat this week of imposing a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US that are not made locally.
However, producing iPhones in the US is likely to increase sticker prices substantially, with some experts estimating the Pro models to cost well over $3,000 apiece, from $1,119 now, on account of higher labour cost and complex logistics in sourcing the necessary components. 'In terms of profitability, it's way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to the US,' said Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple analyst at TF Securities, Hong Kong.
CAPACITY EXPANSION
Last week, Apple's manufacturing partner Foxconn (Hon Hai) announced a fresh $1.5 billion investment in expanding its Chennai facility in a bid to strengthen capacity. The manufacturer has also constructed a new facility in Karnataka which will start shipping iPhones from June. Similarly, Tata Electronics, the company's second largest vendor for making iPhones in India, is expanding capacity at its Hosur facility for both enclosures and full-scale iPhone assembly. It has also acquired the majority stake in Pegatron's facility, which is Apple's third supplier in India.
Some say India's manufacturing capacity is unlikely to scale up fast enough to fully meet the US demand for Apple.
According to Omdia, the US market requires about 20 million iPhones per quarter, but India is expected to meet only about 80% of that demand by 2026.
PARTIAL SHIFT LIKELY
In the first quarter of 2025, India accounted for 21% of global iPhone shipments, with projections suggesting an increase in its share to 25-26% by the end of the year. The constraint India faces is not technical, but that of scale, as per analysts. With Apple now making even the high-end Pro and Pro Max models in India, much of the workforce training is complete, said Omdia.
'A full transition of US-bound iPhone production to India within a year remains unlikely. A partial shift is more feasible, though it still requires substantial investment in infrastructure and continued reliance on China for key components,' said Sanyam Chaurasia, analyst at Canalys (now part of Omdia). Apple is navigating a complex balancing act among its three most critical markets — China, US and India – not just as customer bases, but as an integral part of its global supply and production network, experts said.
'China remains deeply entrenched in Apple's manufacturing ecosystem, home to over 200 key suppliers. Shifting assembly to the US is not a logical move. It would mean attempting to relocate a tightly interwoven supply chain,' said Chaurasia.
Meanwhile, India has rapidly evolved from a secondary hub to a central pillar of global tech manufacturing, underscored by the sharp increase in iPhone exports from India, he said.
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