How three MLB pitchers, including Spencer Strider, are faring in their returns from injuries

New York Times

4 hours ago

A little over two months into the season, pitchers are returning from injury and working to reestablish themselves in their respective rotations. In this column, I'll focus on three starters — Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin — who are coming back from surgery. I'll check in to see how they've looked so far and explore what lies ahead for them in 2025.
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McCullers returned to the majors this year for the first time since the end of 2022. He underwent right elbow surgery and experienced a setback in his recovery, delaying his return to the mound. Through six games started this season, he has a 3.93 FIP, 29% strikeout rate, and 11% walk rate. The two major differences I am seeing from McCullers are in his velocity and command.
Starting with his velocity, his fastball average has decreased from 93 mph in 2022 to 91-92 mph. His cutter and changeup are back at about 87 mph, and his slider is down from 85 mph to 83 mph.
His slider is his primary weapon against right-handed hitters, followed by his sinker. He has not been as effective against righties this season compared to pre-injury (5.31 FIP vs. 3.81 FIP in his career). This is likely due to command inconsistencies, which may be related to mechanical adjustments made after surgery. This has impacted his ability to locate both the sinker and the slider effectively, as well as the results of each pitch, leading to huge reverse splits.
McCullers is throwing his slider 6% less against righties so far this season, but it is still his go-to pitch. Despite adding movement on the pitch (+2 inches of depth and sweep), it is getting …
To understand why the slider isn't performing as well, we also need to examine McCullers' other major weapon against righties — his sinker.
The sinker is getting more chase this season compared to pre-injury results. However, it has resulted in the most damage, with a poor 68% hard-hit rate and a .597 xSLG.
One thing McCullers did really well pre-injury was use both sides of the plate. Looking at his heat maps from 2022, he mixed the location of his sinker and focused on the outer edge with the slider.
This season, his slider is ending up higher and middle more frequently, and he is not throwing his sinker inside at the same rate.
A good sign, however, is that during his June 3 start, he showed better command of his sinker. He was throwing it inside more frequently, like he had pre-injury:
An interesting observation from that start is that McCullers also avoided throwing the sinker to the bottom of the zone. Pre-injury, sinkers to the bottom third of the zone resulted in ground balls. However, McCullers has not been generating ground balls at the same rate. The heat map below shows the location of the sinkers that were hard-hit so far this season, most of them being in the lower third:
My theory for the reduction of ground balls is that the velocity is impacting the effectiveness of the pitch lower in the zone, allowing hitters to square the ball up better.
Adjusting this location based on the results is a step in the right direction for McCullers. His slider command is still a work in progress, but ideally, he'll get it back to the lower, outer edge, as he has in years past.
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Against lefties, he is throwing his knuckle curve 21% less. This is a big change because the knuckle curve was his go-to pitch against lefties pre-injury. It is a strong pitch with above-average movement, above-average velocity and good results throughout his career. Despite its limited usage, McCullers is still doing very well against lefties, with a 2.44 FIP (vs. 2.91 in his career). Additionally, in his June 3 start, McCullers threw the knuckle curve a season-high 40% of the time. This is a good sign that he is starting to feel more confident in the command of this pitch.
McCullers still has work to do in terms of regaining his command, but he is showing signs he is on the right track. If he can remain healthy, he can continue to have the same success and return to a reliable mid-rotation starter.
Strider missed most of the 2024 season and the beginning of this season due to undergoing arm surgery (UCL) and experiencing a setback. As a result, he's been limited to only four starts so far this season with a 6.39 FIP, 23% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate.
Strider's fastball has always been his go-to pitch against both righties and lefties, and that hasn't changed. At 98 mph with plus ride in 2023, the pitch was among the best in baseball. His secondary was the slider to both hands, with an occasional changeup to lefties. He was able to get away with throwing the two pitches the majority of the time due to their exceptional velocity and shape.
Post injury, Strider has a lower arm slot (going from high three-quarters to three-quarters), and his pitch shapes look a little different. He's added movement to all of them:
He's also added a curveball and has been mixing it in rarely against lefties.
The two areas Strider needs to continue working on are his velocity (which has decreased by 2 mph across the board) and his command.
As a mainly two-pitch pitcher, command is vital to Strider's success, especially now that he has lost velocity. His game plan this season remains very similar to years past and is predictable. Looking at the tables below, we can see Strider relies on his four-seamer in every count against righties, and most counts against lefties.
Data from Baseball Savant
Now that the pitches have declined in velocity and he is not commanding them as effectively, he is not getting the same results. His four-seamer is getting 17% less in-zone miss and 6% less chase. His slider is getting 15% less chase and 24% fewer ground balls. Both pitches are also getting hit harder and resulting in more damage.
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His control and command are integral to his future success. In terms of control, his zone rate and first pitch strike rate are at career lows. In terms of command against righties, he is still doing a good job of locating his four-seamer up in the zone, but the same cannot be said for his slider. His slider is missing its location and breaking out of the zone. He is not getting chase on the pitch as a result. He needs to tweak the location and land it in-zone for it to start getting swings again.
Against lefties, he is locating the slider well in the lower third of the zone. He is also locating his four-seamer well on the outer edge of the zone, but he is leaving too many over the middle. In 2023, when the pitch was better, he was able to get away with pounding the zone (even the heart) with the pitch, as it would still generate miss. This season, the four-seamer has a poor .571 xSLG allowed.
Strider is still in the beginning stages of his return from injury. Looking ahead, he can no longer rely only on dominant stuff to be successful. If he can get the velocity back to where it was, or at least start locating better, there is a path to better results.
Gonsolin was placed on the injured list on Saturday, June 7, due to right elbow discomfort, which is likely the reason he has struggled in his past few starts. However, I wrote this section about three days before his injury and still believe it is relevant for why he has not performed as hoped so far.
After missing the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery and having a delayed 2025 start due to a back injury, Gonsolin has a 5.96 FIP, 24% strikeout rate, and 12% walk rate through seven starts.
Gonsolin's velocity is back to where it was in 2022, which is great news. He's also added some movement on his pitches. His four-seamer now has more run, his curveball more sweep and his splitter more depth. His primary areas for improvement are in his mechanics/pitch tunneling and his command and control.
Starting with his mechanics, Gonsolin's arm slot is down 5 degrees from a high three-quarters slot to his three-quarters slot of 2022. He also threw from this slot in 2023 but struggled that season with an ankle injury and forearm inflammation.
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This slot adjustment is affecting his control and his pitch tunneling. In terms of control, Gonsolin's below-average 12% walk rate is up from his average 7% walk rate in 2022.
In terms of tunneling, Gonsolin has not been able to tunnel his pitches as effectively. Tunneling pitches provides deception and makes it more challenging for hitters to read pitches out of hand. This season, we are seeing a greater separation between his pitches on the way to the plate.
Looking at the graphics from Baseball Savant below, the pitches had a much tighter tunnel in 2022 (left) before reaching the plate.
Diving into his mix, Gonsolin's been throwing his slider less this season against righties and increased the usage of his splitter and curveball.
The reduction in the usage of the slider makes sense, as the splitter is proving to be more effective. Looking at the slider location this season compared to 2022, the locations are much more inconsistent, and he is not getting the pitch up as frequently.
As a result, the slider is generating 38% fewer ground balls than in 2022, has a poor 50% hard-hit rate and a .539 xSLG.
The splitter, on the other hand, is getting 14% more in-zone miss compared to 2022 and has maintained the same ground ball rate. It also has an elite 0.033 xSLG and 47% whiff rate. This is because Gonsolin has been able to command it consistently:
This change in pitch usage is helping Gonsolin stay competitive against right-handed batters. His 4.51 FIP this season against righties is very close to his career 4.42 FIP. The same cannot be said against lefties (7.36 FIP this season vs. 3.90 in his career).
Looking at his usage, Gonsolin is throwing the four-seamer slightly more and the splitter less against lefties this season.
While the four-seamer and curveball are still getting chase, the splitter is being chased 20% less. Many of the splitters are ending up too far below the zone to fool hitters.
That being said, the contact quality of all three pitches has been well below average.
While the tunneling and command remain components of why these results have not been better, for the most part, the pitch locations have been competitive. After reviewing video of the hard-hit balls Gonsolin has given up to lefties, it becomes clear that they are limited to above-average hitters such as Juan Soto, Ben Rice and Kyle Stowers. While ideally, Gonsolin could get every hitter out, this is not as big of a red flag as the command and tunneling issues discussed earlier.
There are some promising pieces here, but reestablishing pitch tunneling and improving control and command are key steps required before Gonsolin returns to his pre-injury success.
(Top photo of Spencer Strider: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)