June is Minnesota's peak for severe weather and 2025 may start fast

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3 days ago

June is Minnesota's peak for severe weather and 2025 may start fast originally appeared on Bring Me The News.
June arrives Sunday and by Monday there could be severe storms ripping through Minnesota. It could signal the start of a busy stretch in what is typically Minnesota's most active month for severe storms.
"The start of June is looking anomalously busy from a severe weather/tornado standpoint. Residents across the High Plains, the Central Plains, parts of the Corn Belt and parts of the Upper Midwest should be [alert]," says meteorologist Matthew Cappucci.
"The greatest risk for a few tornadic thunderstorms is over western portions of conventional Great Plains Tornado Alley. Farther east, we may see windy storm complexes pass over parts of the Upper Midwest and into Southern Canada as they ride up and over a ridge of high pressure."
NOAA Storm Prediction Center has placed an area of the Dakotas and western Minnesota under a slight risk for severe storms on Monday. At this point, it appears Monday's activity will be most potent west of the Twin Cities, though storms in the metro cannot be ruled out.
You get a good glimpse of what might happen Monday when you look at the European model's lightning forecast. Look at how it develops an intense line of storms Monday afternoon and evening.
"We're going to see storms develop in South Dakota, western Minnesota late Monday, and then we'll see the leftovers Monday night into Tuesday," says Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. "Looks like the severe threat for eastern Minnesota will be minimal or non-existent."
June is also Minnesota's most active month for tornadoes, though Monday's severe threat looks to be more in the form of damaging winds than tornadoes. From 1991 to 2020, Minnesota averaged 46 tornadoes per year, with a peak of 113 in 2010 and a low of 15 in 2013.
"Historically and statistically, June is the month of greatest frequency with July not far behind," the Minnesota DNR says. "May has the third greatest frequency, followed closely by August. Over 85% of all tornadoes in Minnesota have occurred between May and August."
The European model is dumping a good amount of rain over the southern half of Minnesota and most of Iowa Monday-Wednesday next week.
The outlook for June 2-6 calls for a likelihood of above normal temps and precipitation in Minnesota.
From June 4-10, temps are forecast to normalize while it remains favorable for above normal precipitation.
With summer starting, now is a good time to look how precipitation has evolved statewide, June-August, in Minnesota since 1900. The GIF blow clearly shows how eastern and southeastern Minnesota have trended wetter in the past 120 years.
This story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on May 30, 2025, where it first appeared.