Trump-Putin Meeting In Alaska On August 15 Can Be A Gamechanger In Geopolitics
The stage is finally set. U.S. President Donald Trump will be meeting the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in USA on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine war issue and bring about a settlement for facilitating a long term solution. If a framework of a solution is reached, President Putin will have the final meeting with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky soon after to finalise the deal.
The Alaska meet is taking place in the context of intensive discussions between the Russian and the US officials in the last two weeks after Trump gave Putin a 50 day deadline for concluding a peace agreement, warning otherwise, he would impose fresh sanctions on Russia. Trump also talked to Putin few days back and discussed the progress in the talks between the officials of both countries.
The conclusion of a draft understanding at the Alaska meeting on the solution of Ukraine crisis is of supreme importance to Trump who is desperate to get Nobel Peace Prize for his peacemaking efforts in the world. Soon after taking over power on January 20 this year, Trump announced that Ukraine war ending is his priority. During the election campaign, he claimed that if he was elected as the President, he would stop the Ukraine war within 24 hours. Though it was a normal hyperbole in a poll campaign, the US president pursued both Putin and Zelensky to make vigorous efforts for ending the war. Both sides met at high level a number of times in the last seven months of Trump rule, but no breakthrough was possible.
This time, the two Presidents are meeting carrying with them the draft of the framework which has been arrived after intensive talks at officials level of US and Russia. Zelensky was kept in the loop by the US side but the Ukrainian President was not given any final say. He would consider the draft to be agreed at Alaska meeting and in the follow up meeting with President Putin, Zelensky will be mentioning the points if he differed. In this entire exercise, Trump's office is in touch with Putin's office and the near final points for Alaska meeting are the common views of only Trump and Putin. In the next six days preceding the August 15 meeting, further finetuning of the two drafts will be made to facilitate an understanding.
In fact the draft which Trump and Putin may discuss on August 15 has many similarities with the 2014 draft agreement when discussions were held between the Russian side and the Ukrainian officials after Russian occupation of Crimea, which was a part of Ukraine. President Zelensky earlier in discussions during Joe Biden's time insisted on Crimea remaining a part of Ukraine, but Trump has ruled out that and as a part of the draft understanding, Russia will continue to keep its hold on Crimea. There are indications that Russia has agreed to leave some parts of Ukrainian land which Russian army occupied in the last two weeks as a part of Putin's strategy of establishing maximum control of Ukrainian land before going to the negotiating table.
Western leaders, especially the EU are angry that Trump has totally ignored the European allies who have supplied so much arms to Ukraine to fight the Russians and now Trump is offering Putin a victory on platter through his draft proposal ignoring both Europe and Ukraine. There is a view that Trump will ask Zelensky to take it or leave it without any option after August 15. Earlier also, the Ukrainian President had to bear Trump's insult at the White House meeting on this Ukraine war issue. Later Zelensky came down from his rigid position and Trump forced him to conclude a massive deal with Ukraine on the development of special minerals.
In talks with President Putin on August 15, certainly Ukraine is the major issue but the choice of Alaska as the venue of talks has other significance related to massive business opportunities for US, especially the US companies. Alaska is in the Arctic Sea region and as of now, the Arctic Sea is the epicentre of massive exploration efforts for finding oil and other special minerals with potential for development leading to billion dollars of new business. Both Russia and US are involved in the zone. In some areas, the Russians have already established advantage. Trump is looking for increased collaboration between Russia and US in the exploration of some specific areas. Trump's own family companies are also showing interest in Arctic Sea exploration. As a transactionist, Trump looks at any political deal with his business acumen and finds out its economic potential.
Trump and Putin last met in 2019 at a G20 summit meeting in Japan during Trump's first term. Since then, this will be the first meeting between the two in the last six years. But President Putin earlier visited USA seven times. The Alaska visit will be the eighth. Russia has also invited Trump to visit Russia as early as possible. President Putin updated both Chinese President XI Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday on his moves on Ukraine. That way, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has got back some diplomatic mojo as a part of Russia- China-India talks on Ukraine, after Trump's drubbing to him on the issue of tariffs.
For India, the success of the Alaska talks has the possibility of helping India out of the present crisis over Trump's imposition of 25 per cent additional tariffs for buying Russian oil, which Trump claimed, was helping Russia in fuelling their war machine. If the Alaska talks lead to the end of Ukraine war, the main reason for Trump's imposition of additional tariff will be gone. So, if circumstances favour, he US additional tariff of 25 per cent may not take effect from August 27. But for that Trump and Putin will have to agree on a framework later endorsed by Zelensky. There is a ray at the end of the tunnel. (IPA Service)
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