Could the Senators tender an offer sheet this summer? Mailbag, part 2

New York Times

14-05-2025

We are back with more of your questions from the Senators mailbag. If you missed the first batch of responses, here's part one from Monday morning.
This one has insights on the Senators' offer-sheet situation, potential selections for the Sens at No. 21 in next month's draft and what it's like covering the Senators compared to previous beats.
(Note: Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
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St. Louis showed how to properly do an offer sheet. You can make your team better by making another team worse off; that's a win. So, can you look at some offer sheet options for the Sens? I kind of like Matthew Knies. Great player, and Toronto has to think about Marner, Tavares and some other players. Why not offer-sheet him? Who else? — Norm M.
I'd keep my expectations low on a potential offer sheet, Norm. The Senators are likely to keep their 2025 first-round pick, meaning they'll have to give up the 2026 first-round pick as a penalty for the Evgenii Dadonov trade mishap. The Senators also don't own their 2026 second-round pick (unless they swing a deal with Utah to get it back). So they're ineligible to make an offer sheet beyond the lowest two compensation thresholds as shown below.
But while offer-sheeting players like Matthew Knies or J.J. Peterka seems pretty unlikely, it doesn't mean there aren't restricted free agents worth looking at. Remember, the Blues took advantage of the Oilers being pressed against the salary cap limit last summer and managed to get two RFAs. Dylan Holloway, who scored 63 points last year, only cost a third-round pick with a $2,290,457 cap hit through 2026. Defenceman Philip Broberg, their other capture, cost a second-round pick.
If the Senators want to replicate this, they must look at competitive teams that won't have much room to maneuver despite the rising salary cap.
The Dallas Stars are a prime example. They are projected to have under $6 million of cap space this summer, according to PuckPedia, with a handful of pending UFAs on their docket, including Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene and, ironically, Dadonov. If I'm the Senators, I consider tendering an offer sheet to right-shot forward Mavrik Bourque, who's coming off an 11-goal, 25-point season. He plays with pace and can be a playmaker, and could benefit from increased responsibilities on a different team.
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The Buffalo Sabres, on the other hand, will have over $21 million in cap space this summer to sign pending RFAs, including forwards J.J. Peterka, Ryan McLeod, and Jack Quinn, plus defencemen Bowen Byram and Jacob Bernard-Docker. My Buffalo colleague Matt Fairburn did an excellent job breaking down the Sabres' RFA situation earlier this month. Depending on how much the Sabres will dole out to their players (particularly Peterka and Byram), the Sens should monitor the situation. Quinn is due for a raise after a 15-goal, 39-point season, for example.
The New York Rangers will have slightly over $8.4 million in cap space this summer and most of their attention will go towards defenceman K'Andre Miller. But what about forward Will Cuylle, a 23-year-old scoring winger who hit the 20-goal mark for the first time this season? He might be a bit out of Ottawa's price range, however. He's projected for a three-year, $3,438,000 AAV bridge deal according to AFP Analytics.
If the Sens want to involve themselves in the projected offer-sheet rat race to come, the Blues' model is one to follow. But their options may be limited depending on how other teams handle their own free agents, and how other free-spending teams pounce on the available names out there.
One more thing: the team offers the contract, but the player decides if he wants to sign or not.
So, provided they're keeping their 21st overall this draft, who's their likely pick? Who might slide that far? What are the odds they trade down/out of the first round? Basically, your idea of their first round and possible candidates. — Andrey I.
The Senators are currently going through their scouting meetings, so they're actively considering their possibilities as you read this. I'll work at getting a better sense of what the Senators might want soon.
If I'm in the room, I'm pounding the table and consistently chanting, 'Best. Player. Available.'
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The Senators' draft pipeline is still among the league's worst, according to colleague Scott Wheeler's annual rankings. Considering the Senators are still at risk of not having a first-round pick in 2026 — and have ambitions of that 2026 pick being lower than their 2025 first — this pick has to hit. I'm not particularly choosy about who the Sens should take at 21st overall as long as their talent is sufficient enough to vault them to the top of Ottawa's prospect pipeline. The Sens could use some more centres in their pipeline, but it's quite alright if their top two prospects end up being two right-shot defencemen (Carter Yakemchuk and someone else).
Ottawa needs to accumulate good young players when they can get them, at a point where their contention window is forming and they don't aspire to be picking in the top half of the draft for the foreseeable future.
If the best player available is the high-scoring, playmaking Ben Kindel out of the Calgary Hitmen, so be it. A two-way, right-shot centre who can generate points should be right up the Sens' alley. When Wheeler did his mock draft after the lottery, he projected the Senators would take the bigger Jack Nesbitt, who could also fit the bill, with Kindel going one spot later. Corey Pronman's mock draft has the Sens taking right-shot defenceman Blake Fiddler out of the WHL's Edmonton Oil Kings.
Among other prospects who could be available at No. 21: forwards Malcolm Spence, Milton Gastrin, Lynden Lakovic and Justin Carbonneau and defencemen Henry Brzustewicz and Logan Hensler.
If I'm the Senators, unless I'm getting a trade offer that nets me a quality player in return, I'm choosing a surefire first-round talent.
How can we realistically afford adding a third star forward to Brady and Stu? — Matt R.
If GM Steve Staios is serious about adding a star for the Senators, I think it would have to come via trade. The biggest star likely to test free agency this summer, Mitch Marner, might not want to join forces with his current team's rival.
The Senators will have over $17 million in cap space this summer, but they need to tender contracts to restricted free agents Fabian Zetterlund and Tyler Kleven and handle the UFA dossiers of Claude Giroux, Adam Gaudette and others.
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And even through trade, potential pieces are somewhat limited. The Sens have their 2025 first-round pick and Yakemchuk among their biggest pieces. In Monday's mailbag, I debated the merit of trading scoring winger Drake Batherson, who has a team-friendly deal. But unless the Sens get scoring or some other kind of star player in return, it doesn't make much sense — but it's not impossible.
So, yeah, Staios would have to be creative this summer if that's what he wants, but it's not like he is averse to making trades. He landed Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens at the deadline this season and acquired Linus Ullmark last summer.
Julian, anything unique about covering the Sens as a reporter? What's it like in the room at these press conferences? Where do you get to watch the home games from? What is the quickest and slowest you've ever left the parking lot after the game? Or are you taking the 404? — James S.
Ottawa is the third NHL team I've been around since I started writing about the Canadiens back in 2018 for a ton of places before joining The Athletic in 2021. Every media corps is unique, but Ottawa has tons of great quirks.
It features voices I've grown up watching or listening to, whether it be Brent Wallace or Dean Brown (oh, and that Mendes guy). The francophone media contingent isn't as large as Montreal's, but they're well represented. And because I can speak English and French, I can hang around in their scrums and ask questions as well. I learned French in school growing up, but I only felt comfortable speaking the language when I hung around francophone colleagues in Montreal and Ottawa. And the friends I've made are plenty, including familiar names to The Athletic subscribers in Chris Stevenson and Graeme Nichols.
(Small story on Nichols: In 2017, I was a play-by-play guy for McGill University's baseball team that won a championship in New Brunswick. McGill beat Carleton in the final that year, the latter of which featured Nichols as a bench coach.)
Anyway, everybody's been pretty friendly and professional across the Sens' mediaverse, whether they be writers, TV people, radio people, podcasters, former players, current players, the coach, PR people or even Bruce Garrioch! This entire experience has been great.
At games, I'm seated right below the visiting team's play-by-play booth, so I get commentary right above me as I watch. My favourite seat in the house. I usually leave games pretty late. I love writing off games and media availabilities at the arena, so I rarely get traffic on my way home.
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So yes, Ottawa's been pretty great! But for those rushing to the comment section: No, I won't rank Ottawa, Montreal and Calgary. All three of these cities mean a lot to me for very different reasons and have helped me become the person I am today.
(Top photo of Mavrik Bourque: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)