
China has brokered another ceasefire in Myanmar civil war. But will it hold?
The latest China-brokered truce in Myanmar's civil war is likely to hold for now but lasting peace may still be a pipe dream, according to observers.
Myanmar's military government and a major northeastern ethnic rebel group agreed to a ceasefire this month in the Chinese border city of Kunming - the second such pact to be signed there in just over a year.
The agreement between the incumbent junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) took effect on January 18, China's foreign ministry announced last Monday.
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The MNDAA, made up of the ethnic Chinese Kokang minority, is part of Myanmar's "Three Brotherhood Alliance" rebel coalition.
China shares a 2,000km (1,242-mile) border with Myanmar, and shares close ties with both the junta and rebel groups. Beijing has been deeply involved in mediation as the fighting impacts border stability and disrupts trade, and puts its substantial infrastructure investment in Myanmar at risk.
In early January last year, the two sides signed their first ceasefire in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan - the southwestern Chinese province bordering Myanmar. But the deal fell apart within six months.
However, observers said this month's truce was likely to last longer, citing stronger measures taken by Beijing and a much weakened junta.
Xu Peng, a postdoctoral researcher at the SOAS University of London, highlighted China's move in October to seal the border and suspend key exports to rebel-held areas in the northeast.
"This has had a big impact on the survival of the armed forces of ethnic minorities that relied heavily on the border economy," Peng said. "China has exerted more pressure on this ceasefire agreement, and so it's going to be more difficult to break it."
China reopened all its border crossings in MNDAA-controlled areas after the truce was signed, according to Burma News International.
According to Zhuang Guotu, director of the Southeast Asian Studies Centre at Xiamen University, the junta government has been greatly undermined by the different armed forces.
"Unlike last year, the government army is very weak now," Zhuang said. "There are at least four quite powerful forces fighting at the same time against the Burmese military government."
Myanmar's ethnic groups have been fighting for autonomy on and off for decades, but the latest escalation dates back to February 2021, when the junta overthrew an elected civilian government and imposed emergency rule.
The coup triggered widespread protests that later spawned an armed revolt, with vast swathes along the China border now under rebel control.
The opposition groups include the Kachin Independence Army, which is moving south to fight the incumbent government, and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which has overrun dozens of military outposts and taken control of several towns in the north near the border with China since 2023.
Zhuang noted that northern Myanmar relied heavily on China to develop its communications, energy, and finance, which would make it more costly to break the China-facilitated ceasefire deal.
"Those who want to sabotage don't have the ability to sabotage [the ceasefire agreement], and those who have the ability to sabotage don't dare to do so," Zhuang said. "That's why this agreement can last for a longer period of time."
However, despite optimism over the ceasefire, Peng cautioned that China's influence was still limited in the neighbouring country. The agreement might have brought only temporary peace as fundamental trust among the various forces in Myanmar was lacking.
"Ceasefire and conflict have become a symbiotic relationship embedded in the country's DNA," she said. "Sometimes conflict is the norm, while ceasefires are the exception."
China's foreign ministry said last week that Beijing would actively promote negotiations and provide support to the peace process in northern Myanmar.
"It is hoped that the parties will maintain the momentum of the ceasefire and peace talks, effectively implement the consensus reached, take the initiative to de-escalate the situation on the ground, and further resolve the relevant issues through dialogue," ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
Since the 2021 coup, junta chief General Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised an election. The junta alleges that the 2020 poll was riddled with widespread voter fraud, and has promised a free and fair election this year.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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"China is hurting, yes—but they still hold the upper hand on critical resources, and they know how to use them." Any lessening of tensions — and freer flow — of these mineral resources in China would be a significant boost to the global economy with China holding outsized leverage in both the reserves and processing capacity of these key building blocks for everything from computers to electric vehicle batteries to medical devices. Likewise, the US offering concessions on export controls would be a significant move after years where successive US administrations have wielded these controls — especially around the design and manufacture of semiconductors — by saying they need to be tight on China for national security reasons. Read more here. May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday and its expected to show that prices rose a bit faster than in April. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal breaks down what to look out for and how President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers are now paying for goods and services. Read more here. Now that the US-China trade truce is back on track, both sides are keen to ensure it stays that way. China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said both sides need to now 'show the spirit of good faith in abiding by their commitments and jointly safeguard the hard-won results of the dialogue.' Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Despite the US-China trade truce resuming the pain from President Trump's tariffs remains in China, especially among small exporters. Reuters reports: Read more here. Japan warned Wednesday that tariffs threaten its economic growth, the government said in a monthly report. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. A federal appeals could said on Tuesday that President Trump's sweeping tariffs can continue for now. This is a significant win for Trump, who introduced tariffs back in March and declared "Liberation Day," as he saw them as a way to free the US from what he called unfair trade practices. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Early summer sales for Inditex, the owner of fashion retailer Zara, came in weaker, as the company missed expectations for first quarter sales on Wednesday. President Trump's tariffs have impacted consumer demand in the US and other major markets. Reuters reports: Read more here. After weeks of back and forth, the US and China have agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus that helped ease tariffs. The breakthrough came after two days of talks in London, including a marathon session on Tuesday. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said both sides had to "get the negativity out" before making progress. 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