Closing Hormuz is more dangerous for Iraq and China

Al Arabiya

7 hours ago

Iran makes threats, but it will not act. It will not mine the Strait of Hormuz or block it by bombing passing ships. This scenario would backfire and primarily harm China – the largest buyer of Gulf oil – which would lose four million barrels a day.
Iran's enemies – the Americans and Israelis – would be the ones to benefit, because Beijing would adopt an angry stance toward Iran.
When a cargo ship blocked the Suez Canal for just six days in 2021, the world was paralyzed – similar to what happened when the Houthis disrupted global maritime movement by targeting ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Therefore, closing the Strait of Hormuz would hurt Iran's allies the most.
In the past, the Strait of Hormuz was a card used to blackmail the world. Today, it is no longer a strategic concern for the Americans, who have become nearly self-sufficient thanks to their own oil production and that of neighboring Canada.
What if Iran's goal in closing the Strait is to choke its Gulf neighbors and pressure them without entering into military confrontation? These countries have been planning for such a dark day for decades. Even if the strait were completely closed for several months, they are capable of absorbing the losses with limited damage.
The biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, owns a pipeline that allows it to export through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Its capacity is five million barrels – and it can be increased. This means it won't lose a single barrel from its market. The UAE also has the port of Fujairah, located beyond the Strait of Hormuz, through which it can export more than 1.5 million barrels a day. Then there's Qatar, the largest gas producer. Although it has no alternative sea routes, it can withstand several months of forced interruption, thanks to its massive financial reserves. Kuwait and Bahrain will be affected, but their Gulf Cooperation Council partners can support them.
The biggest Gulf loser would be Iraq – Iran's ally – as it exports nearly three million barrels per day through Hormuz. If it were deprived of exports, it would not have the financial capacity to meet its obligations to its citizens or to its external commitments.
We know that Iran has repeatedly trained for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through dedicated military drills. If it does act, it would drive up oil prices and cause harm to China and Iraq, primarily.
Since the 1980s, the threat of closing the strait has been Tehran's card to intimidate both the Americans and the Gulf states. But yesterday's strategies are no longer effective today. The United States has become the world's largest oil producer. China is the Gulf's biggest buyer. And the Gulf states have prepared for such a possibility by building export networks that bypass the bottleneck that is Hormuz.
Tehran's other options to widen the scope of conflict remain dangerous for the region – and dangerous for itself. Each option is akin to a suicide mission that would threaten a regime long bent on domination and expansion. This may be its last chance. It must accept peaceful coexistence in the region and stay within its borders.