How Trump can win at the Alaska summit

Mint

14 hours ago

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in Alaska on Friday bodes ill for Ukraine. It looks as if Mr. Trump might reward Russia's aggression by trying to force Ukraine to cede up to 20% of its territory to Moscow. That's quite a prize for waging a war that has resulted in the death of as many as 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers, the slaughter of more than 13,000 civilians, the savagery of occupation, the kidnapping of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children and half a trillion dollars' worth of damage to the country's cities and industry.
But if Mr. Trump instead tries to live up to his self-assessment as a shrewd negotiator, he should be prepared to respond to Mr. Putin's ultimatum.
The Russian president's demands will go something like this: In addition to guaranteeing Russia's control of Crimea and the Donbas region, before considering a cease-fire, Russia also must be satisfied that the root causes of this conflict have been resolved. Which means Ukraine agrees to 'permanent neutrality," the end of Western military assistance, a drastic reduction in Ukrainian armed forces and the end of the military draft, and the 'de-Nazification" of the Kyiv regime, starting with the removal of Volodymyr Zelensky's government.
If these conditions aren't met, Mr. Putin will argue, Russia has everything it needs to stay in the 'long war": The patriotic Russian people support the defense of the motherland. Despite the West's sanctions, the economy is solid. War expenses, although large, are manageable. And volunteers are joining the war effort in droves. Mr. Putin will claim he has enough money and soldiers, as well as drones and missiles, to secure victory. Meanwhile, America will have another 'endless war" on its hands.
Rather than challenging Mr. Putin on the fraudulent 'root" causes of the war or delving into the military and territorial nitty-gritty of a potential cease-fire, Mr. Trump ought to convey a key point: Time isn't on Russia's side. This fact collapses Mr. Putin's strategy of outlasting the West. What used to look like a marathon is turning into a sprint—and the West intends to win the race. Mr. Trump should make this clear:
Russia is losing soldiers. Some 30,000 of them get killed or seriously wounded every month. These are huge numbers—about a million since February 2022. Mr. Putin is giving out sign-up bonuses that are higher than the average national annual salary, but the number of first-time volunteers might be dipping below the replacement. An estimated 200,000 criminals have been 'persuaded" to 'volunteer." Mr. Putin broke his promise not to send raw draftees into combat. Eighteen-year-old Russians were killed or taken prisoner or went missing after Ukraine's incursion in the Kursk region last year.
Russia is also losing at least $300 million a day on this war. It's eating up about 40% of government spending and 7% or 8% of gross domestic product. Oil and gas revenue, half the Russian budget, are down by 28% from last July and the lowest since January 2023. The latest European Union sanctions on uninsured 'grey fleet" older vessels that transport Russian oil and the EU's ban on petroleum products based on Russian crude exports will further squeeze Moscow's finances.
Russia isn't out of money, but it's running out of cash. No one, including its Chinese 'friends without limits," will buy its debt. Its only reliable source of money is the National Welfare Fund, where Mr. Putin has been storing profits from oil sold above the 'planned prices" since 2008. The fund's liquid resources are down from $117 billion in 2021 to $35 billion this May. If Brent crude falls to $55 dollars a barrel, the fund will run out in a few months. Central Bank of Russia experts say this a 'crisis scenario."
The Russian Finance Ministry reports a 20% increase in year-on-year government expenditures, and Moscow can't count on its economy to help. GDP surged between 2023 and 2024 after Mr. Putin threw trillions of rubles at the military-industrial complex. Now the country faces stagflation. Mr. Putin will be lucky if the economy grows above 1%. The official inflation number is 9%, but some staples have been affected much more severely. It's hard on the Russian poor, who make up almost half of the population. Prices for potatoes are up 62% from last year, butter 35% and bread 18%.
To boost the economy, the central bank in the past two months has cut the interest rate from 21% to 18%, but no one thinks that will work. At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June, the head of the central bank said national economic resources are 'practically exhausted."
As the people's support, why are the courts' sentences for 'political" offenses longer than those in the post-Stalin Soviet Union? Why have authorities arrested so far this year about 100 high-ranking officials on corruption charges? Why can an internet post land somebody behind bars for years? Why's it a crime merely to surf the net for alternative sources of information? Why did Mr. Putin ban Facebook and Instagram? Is WhatsApp next? And why are schoolchildren encouraged to inform on their teachers?
If Mr. Trump confronts Mr. Putin like this, their summit will be contentious and short, with no agreement at the end. Yet the meeting won't be for naught. Telling Mr. Putin that the West will capitalize on Russia's economic and financial vulnerabilities while expanding assistance to Ukraine may push the Russian leader to consider an alternative strategy to ultimatums and stonewalling.
Mr. Aron is author most recently of 'Riding the Tiger: Vladimir Putin's Russia and the Uses of War."