NHL playoff predictions 2025: Which teams win first round series and advance in bracket?

USA Today

18-04-2025

NHL playoff predictions 2025: Which teams win first round series and advance in bracket?
Show Caption
Hide Caption
Paul Bissonnette on Ovechkin-Crosby rivalry over last 20 years
NHL on TNT's Paul Bissonnette breaks down the ongoing rivalry between Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby
Sports Seriously
The NHL is rolling out its playoff schedule slowly with two Western Conference games on Saturday and the 2024 champion Florida Panthers not starting their Stanley Cup defense until Tuesday.
The Panthers will face the cross-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning in what could be one of the best series of the first round. The 2024 Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers will try to make it four years in a row of beating the Los Angeles Kings in the first round.
Which eight teams will make it to the second round?
USA TODAY's Jason Anderson, Mike Brehm and Jace Evans give their predictions for the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs:
Jason Anderson: Capitals in 6. The Caps have had some ugly losses in recent weeks to teams that missed the playoffs, including dropping a recent back-to-back pair of games to Columbus by a combined 11-1 score. I'm taking Washington, but with the Habs holding opponents to just 2.4 goals per game over their final 10 regular-season outings, this might be closer than a No. 1-vs.-No. 8 series ought to be.
Mike Brehm: Capitals in 6. The Canadiens are in the same position as the Capitals were last season: clinching on the last game of the season and facing one of the best teams in the league. Those Capitals were swept. These Canadiens won't be, but they are facing a Washington team that has improved in every aspect of the game, even with its late-season issues.
Jace Evans: Capitals in 6. Most of the focus on Washington lately has been on Alex Ovechkin's historic goal chase. While epic, it also obscured the fact that the Caps haven't been playing all that well. Still, the NHL's most surprising team this season should have enough to win this series, particularly if goalie Logan Thompson can return (and return to form).
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils
Jason Anderson: Hurricanes in 5. Neither of these teams is coming into the playoffs on a hot streak, with ho-hum goaltending and more recent losses than wins. However, Carolina skates too well and is too deep for a Devils team that hasn't figured out how to replace Jack Hughes (shoulder).
Mike Brehm: Hurricanes in 5. The Devils are more than Jack Hughes, but New Jersey will miss his game-breaking ability against a Hurricanes team that doesn't give you much free space.
Jace Evans: Hurricanes in 4. The season-ending injury to Jack Hughes was so deflating for the Devils. It's just hard to imagine them mustering much of a fight without one of the game's top players.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
Jason Anderson: Maple Leafs in 6. Toronto is clearly the better team here, and is built for playoff hockey. However, no team enters the postseason with a more anxious fanbase thanks to how many times the Leafs have crashed out of the first round (it's eight times in nine postseason trips since the 2004-05 lockout, if you're counting). The Leafs will make it hard on themselves, but they have too much of an edge to pick against them in this series.
Mike Brehm: Maple Leafs in 6. This is when we'll find out how much the coaching change to Craig Berube will help. The Maple Leafs have been good in the regular season and not so good in the playoffs. But Berube has them playing the right way.
Jace Evans: Maple Leafs in 5. Not to be hyperbolic but if the Maple Leafs somehow manage to lose in the first round this year they should fold the franchise. Jokes aside, Toronto is the superior team and has its best opportunity to make a deep run since 2021 ... when it collapsed in the first round against another Canadian team.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Jason Anderson: Lightning in 7. This one feels like it could be a classic. It's hard to pick against the defending champions, but Florida has been too inconsistent down the stretch to make another long playoff run. Tampa Bay has the edge in goal with Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov has been spectacular, and that's enough to make the home-ice edge in this series count.
Mike Brehm: Lightning in 6. The Panthers will have to play two games on the road without suspended Aaron Ekblad. And they're facing a Lightning team that made some smart pickups at the trade deadline. The Panthers were busy, too, adding Seth Jones and Brad Marchand, but they also have had injury issues.
Jace Evans: Lightning in 6. Beyond questions about Matthew Tkachuk's health (and effectiveness after so much time away), Florida has just played an awful lot of hockey the last two years. It's very hard to make three consecutive runs to the Stanley Cup Final and it's an even bigger ask to begin that journey on the road against a team as good as Tampa.
Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues
Jason Anderson: Jets in 6. The Presidents' Trophy has been a bit of a curse, but it's hard to pick against Winnipeg in this series. The Blues have played the Jets close this season, but St. Louis gives away too many chances in front and has too much trouble killing penalties to convert that into a major upset.
Mike Brehm: Jets in 5. The Jets play a strong defensive game and Connor Hellebuyck is heading toward a second consecutive Vezina Trophy. That didn't help him in last season's playoffs, when he was blown out by Colorado, but the Blues aren't the Avalanche and don't have their firepower.
Jace Evans: Blues in 6. Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the world. But he's been a disaster the prior two postseasons. The Jets were the best team in the league this year. But no Presidents' Trophy winner has made the Stanley Cup Final since 2013 and only two since then have even made the conference finals (2015 and 2024 Rangers). I'm picking the upset.
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
Jason Anderson: Avalanche in 6. Plenty of data points suggest the Avs' record isn't quite as good as it should be, and that Dallas has had a bit of luck on its side. It's also impossible to ignore that the Stars enter the playoffs on a shocking seven-game losing streak. Despite Dallas having home ice, Colorado's scoring depth should be able to wear the Stars down.
Mike Brehm: Avalanche in 5. I had toyed with picking the Stars to reach the Stanley Cup Final. But that was before they cratered down the stretch. If Miro Heiskanen remains out and Jason Robertson misses time, Dallas will have a tough time.
Jace Evans: Avalanche in 7. The Stars are deep and seem like a title contender once again ... but they don't have the same level of star-power Colorado has. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will help the Avs find a way.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
Jason Anderson: Golden Knights in 5. Vegas won all three regular-season meetings, and while the Wild have the best goalie in the series in Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota is also one of two teams to get into the playoffs despite a negative goal difference (-11) on the season. The Golden Knights are the stronger team top to bottom.
Mike Brehm: Golden Knights in 6. The Golden Knights lost key players to free agency but are a deeper team because of the emergence of players such as Pavel Dorofeyev. They didn't even make a stunning move at the deadline, just bringing back Reilly Smith. The Golden Knights have plenty of leftovers from the 2023 Stanley Cup champions and could go far.
Jace Evans: Golden Knights in 6. Minnesota has gotten healthy at the right time, but Vegas is a deep, balanced group that is loaded with championship experience. The Wild haven't won a playoff series since 2015.
Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Jason Anderson: Kings in 6. It's NHL tradition at this point for the Kings and Oilers to play in the first round, but this year Los Angeles finally gets one over on Edmonton. Darcy Kuemper gives the Kings an edge between the pipes, and it's impossible to assume the Oilers' long list of dinged-up players can be at their best.
Mike Brehm: Kings in 7. The Kings are dominant at home and they have home-ice advantage in this series. The Oilers will miss injured Mattias Ekholm.
Jace Evans: Oilers in 7. The Oilers were hit by the injury bug about as hard as any team in the playoffs, and there remains eternal questions about their goaltending. And yet, if the big guns are in the lineup, I just trust they'll find a way to score goals and beat the Kings — as they have the prior three years.