UK statistics office delays retail sales data release by two weeks
The data had been due Friday this week.
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Reuters
24 minutes ago
- Reuters
Dollar slips as traders wait on Jackson Hole
NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped against the euro and yen on Tuesday as traders waited on the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole economic policy symposium later this week for further clues on U.S. interest rate policy. A speech on Friday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell is this week's main focus, with little major economic data to otherwise drive market direction, with traders tuned into whether Powell pushes back against market pricing of a rate cut in September. Traders ramped up bets on a rate cut at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting after a weak jobs report for July. Last month's consumer price inflation report also showed limited pass through from tariffs, adding to the move. But a hotter-than-expected producer price reading for July has tempered some rate-cut expectations. Powell has said he is reluctant to cut rates due to an expected increase in inflation this summer from tariffs. "Last week, when we had about 25 basis points priced in for September, and more than two cuts for the rest of the year, there was probably some risk that the Powell speech would disappoint those expectations if he wasn't clear enough in committing to a September cut," said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX and macro strategist at UBS in New York. "Now that we're pricing in about 20 basis points for September and just slightly over 50 basis points for the rest of the year, I think the risks are much more balanced," Serebriakov added. Traders are currently pricing in 54 basis points of cuts by year-end. The Fed will also release minutes from its July 29-30 meeting on Wednesday, though they may offer limited insight as the meeting came before July's weak jobs report. Data on Tuesday showed that groundbreaking for new U.S. single-family homes and permits for future construction rose in July even as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continued to hamper home purchases. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.02% on the day at 98.10, with the euro up 0.09% at $1.1671. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.15% to 147.64. Currency moves have been relatively muted for the past few weeks following a steep drop in the dollar in the first half of the year. "There's been a bit of de-risking in FX over the summer and now investors are just waiting for the more clear catalyst for the next move," said Serebriakov. Traders are also focused on any developments in peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine and its European allies have been buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of security guarantees for Kyiv to help end the war in Ukraine but face many unanswered questions, including how willing Russia will be to play ball. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed Monday's summit at the White House with the U.S. president as a "major step forward" towards ending Europe's deadliest conflict in 80 years and towards setting up a trilateral meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin and Trump in the coming weeks. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.66% to $114,603.
Powys County Times
25 minutes ago
- Powys County Times
Higher airfares and hotel prices predicted to push up UK inflation in July
Prices in the UK are set to have risen faster last month as school holidays boosted travel costs and grocery bills remain elevated, economists said. Some experts said an 'Oasis bump' could have contributed to higher accommodation prices in July. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest inflation dataset on Wednesday. The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to have increased to 3.7% in July, from the 3.6% recorded in June. The school summer holidays are likely to have seen airfares rise considerably, with airlines typically bumping up prices in July amid stronger demand from families. Analysts for Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that airfares could surge by 17.1% between June and July. Rail costs and package holidays are also set to have jumped amid the spike in summer travel. July's Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation will also be announced on Wednesday. The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated train fare rises in England in 2026, but this year's 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024. Banking group Investec has forecast this year's July RPI figure will be 4.5%, which means fares could jump by 5.5%. Pressure group Railfuture told the PA news agency 'it would be outrageous' if fares rose by that much. Meanwhile, economists have pointed to a possible spike in hotel prices helping drive up CPI inflation in July. Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said this could partly be attributed to British band Oasis kicking off their reunion tour in July. The concerts brought in hordes of fans to arenas in Cardiff, Manchester, London and Edinburgh, which could have driven greater demand for hotel rooms. Accommodation prices could rise by as much as 9% in July, compared with June, 'with the Oasis concerts having a strong impact on Manchester prices alone', the economist said. Mr Raja is predicting headline UK inflation will have risen to 3.8% in July. Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets for Hargreaves Lansdown, said: 'The Oasis tour, which saw high demand for hospitality around the gig dates, has the potential to push up inflation in the sector during July. 'We are unlikely to see the Gallagher effect show up in quite the same way as Taylor Swift's bump to prices in June 2024. 'But demand for hotel rooms, beer, bucket hats and Nineties-style gear could be one of the factors that keep inflation heading higher.' Food prices have also been rising in recent months – partly driven by higher ingredients, labour and regulatory costs. Annual food price inflation increased for the third month in a row in June, hitting the highest rate since February 2024. Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said there were 'particular worries about domestic food price inflation as well as uncertainty around how (US President Donald) Trump's tariffs could push up prices'. The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will increase further this year and peak at about 4% in September, before easing throughout the next two years. The central bank said accelerating food and energy prices have been key drivers in the uptick in inflation.
The Independent
25 minutes ago
- The Independent
Calm down, homeowners – Rachel Reeves' property tax might be an improvement
Another day, another idea that Rachel Reeves is said to be considering. It's as if the chancellor is putting suggestions out there to see what sticks. Either that, or she just wants to be seen to be busy and to let it be known she has considered all options before delivering her autumn Budget, which is when we will discover for certain. What is clear is that Reeves has a funding gap to fill, and the backdrop – of stretched national and local public services and a flatlining economy – isn't pretty. Nor too is a regime of anachronistic, complex and often unfair taxes, especially regarding homes. The latest possibility for dissection and reaction then, is a new property tax, to replace stamp duty and council tax. First up would be an annual tax to replace stamp duty on homes worth more than £500,000, to be paid by owner-occupiers. The amount charged would be based on the value of the property according to a rate set by the government; HMRC would collect payment. The annual levy would not apply to second homes because they would still be subject to stamp duty, including the 5 per cent second home surcharge. The aim of this new national property tax would be the creation of a revenue source that is more reliable and not so prone to fluctuations in the housing market as stamp duty. It would be more efficient and practical, reflective of a current Britain (stamp duty, the oldest of all taxes, was born in 1694) and, crucially, would not be such a drag on home sales. Properties in the bracket below £500,000, upwards of £250,000, would be freed. Given that the average price of a home in the UK was £272,664 according to Nationwide, most homes would be liberated, including starter homes. It would prove easier and cheaper to move house and encourage greater mobility. Inevitably, the new tax will, and is, already being criticised as another 'wealth tax'. Quickest out of the traps was Location, Location, Location presenter Kirstie Allsopp who decried the suggestion of a property tax as 'really destabilising for the property market – and when I say the property market, I mean people's homes. This government seems to want to punish people for making the sacrifices they've made to buy their own homes.' Reeves and her advisers are letting it be known that they are following a report from the centre-right (so not leftist) think tank, Onward. It was Onward that came up with the £250,000-to-£500,000 net. Under the Onward plan, the suggested annual rate above £500,000 would be 0.54 per cent, and a home worth more than £1m would pay 0.81 per cent on the portion over that limit. Important, given the state of the nation's finances, is the possibility it will not actually raise more than stamp duty. Onward's recommendation that it should not be retrospective would mean stamp duty would not be scrapped in one go, the substitute being phased in gradually. So, it is no fiscal panacea, rather a nice thing to have. Onward also recommended ditching council tax, also loathed by left and right, and introducing a local proportional property tax. It would be charged yearly to homeowners, not residents, on properties up to £500,000. Like council tax, the rate would be set by local authorities, but Onward's guide of 0.44 per cent would mean a maximum bill of £2,196 a year, payable to the council. With properties worth more than £500,000, the government will step in and take an additional 0.54 per cent, also annually, on the portion above £500,000. Out would go the outdated and flawed council tax banding system assessed on property values from 1991. It would be fairer and would allow councils to retain a strong lever over their own finances. It could head off some of the council bankruptcies that are brewing. Unfortunately, though, it too is unlikely to prove a quick fix – experts are predicting it will take a while to implement. A test for Reeves and for Sir Keir Starmer would be, given their talk of wanting to go 'further and faster' and their commitment to removing bureaucracy, is just how soon any of these changes could come on-stream. The new local tax is also not especially redistributive – poor areas would still remain disadvantaged, affluent ones would still be able to bask in their good fortune. The new, national and local property tax would enjoy another advantage, in that Britain would operate under one structure. At present, stamp duty exists in England and Northern Ireland – Wales and Scotland do it their way. This would cut across, and while it might not be popular with nationalists it would be uniform. Above all, what is under discussion, if it is Onward, bearing in mind that other think tanks have their own ideas, is more appealing than the current mess. It is true that it is not hard, that anything would be better, but this does begin to feel like genuine reform and modernisation.
