India set to drive in new leadership opportunities with EVs
India's ambitious vision for electric vehicles (EVs) positions it to become a global leader in sustainable transportation. As the fourth-largest automaker and home to one-sixth of the world's population, India is set for a significant energy transition, with the EV market expected to grow from USD 3.21 billion in 2022 to USD 113.99 billion by 2029.
G20 Sherpa and former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant emphasizes the urgent need for India to embrace green mobility. "If we don't shift now, we risk missing the opportunity to become the world's largest EV manufacturer.' Projections indicate that by 2030, India could achieve a 30% market share for EVs, with a target of 80 million EVs on the road. The Indian EV battery market is also set to rise sharply, from USD 16.77 billion in 2023 to USD 27.70 billion by 2028.
The government's 7C vision—Common, Connected, Convenient, Congestion-free, Charged, Clean, and Cutting-edge—aims to establish low-cost financing, robust charging infrastructure, and collaborative frameworks among stakeholders. According to Ashim Sharma from NRI, India could achieve 12%-15% vehicle penetration by 2030, positioning itself alongside the US, Europe, and China as a top EV market. To secure long-term leadership, Sharma urges a focus on innovation in battery technologies and engineering talent, particularly for small and mid-sized vehicles.
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S&P Global Mobility predicts that India's electric car penetration could hit 19% by 2030 and 32% by 2035. EV adoption is not a luxury but a necessity. New models, positive consumer feedback, and innovative schemes like Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) are vital for driving this change. Puneet Gupta from S&P Global anticipates reaching an inflection point of 3.5%-4% penetration by 2026.
Government initiatives and industry trends
China's EV success underscores the importance of government support in creating demand and supply. Incentives and robust policies have propelled the EV ecosystem, as highlighted by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology study: 'China focused its resources on an industry it wanted to grow. Norway's high EV adoption rates stem from strategic government incentives, including tax exemptions and free parking.
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Likewise, the recently announced PM E-Drive scheme underscores the government's firm commitment towards promoting sustainable mobility. Shailesh Chandra, President of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and Managing Director of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd & Tata Passenger Electric Mobility Ltd, believes that PM E-Drive will undoubtedly help accelerate the adoption of EVs across India, making clean and green transportation more accessible to all.
Shared and urban mobility solutions, particularly passenger EVs, are crucial for transforming India's transportation landscape. Integrating shared electric mobility can reduce congestion and emissions, fostering a sustainable urban framework.
According to a Capgemini report, 41% of Indian consumers appreciate the availability of trained staff for EV-related concerns, surpassing the global average of 33%.
Challenges and solutions
To overcome hurdles, prioritizing charging infrastructure is essential. Whether driven by government or private sector initiatives, achieving a comprehensive charging network within two years is critical. Strengthening the business case for this infrastructure will attract investments, with FAME standing out as a key incentive for EV adoption and infrastructure development.
Active collaboration with private players, including charging providers and resident welfare associations, is vital for innovative solutions like battery swapping. Additionally, enhancing the scope and efficiency of incentive schemes, particularly under FAME, can maximize impact with limited resources.
Exploring low-cost policies like Low-Emission Zones (LEZs) and legalizing e-bike taxis can spur EV adoption without significant public expenditure. A comprehensive approach focusing on battery technology investments and local manufacturing will accelerate the transition. Ashim Sharma suggests enhancing skilling initiatives through partnerships with global institutes to build a competent workforce.
A growing EV ecosystem
India has set ambitious targets for EV penetration by 2030, including 30% in private cars, 70% in commercial vehicles, 40% in buses, and 80% in two-wheelers and three-wheelers. This equates to an ambitious objective of 80 million EVs on Indian roads by 2030.India also aims for complete domestic EV production through the 'Make in India' initiative.
On the infrastructure side, as of February 2024, there are 12,146 operational public EV charging stations nationwide, A recent Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) report emphasized the necessity of establishing at least 1.32 million charging stations in India by 2030 to facilitate the rapid growth of electric vehicles, requiring over 4,00,000 installations annually. This presents a significant growth opportunity.
The good news is that leading automakers are already working to establish the necessary ecosystem with even non-automotive players like JSW and Reliance Infra are entering the EV space. JSW MG has declared its intent to go all-in on electrification, while local players like Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have accelerated efforts. Tata Motors is the clear leader in the EV space and is determined to maintain its position.
Industry experts believe that India is well-positioned to scale up its EV presence, given its success in local production of auto components for ICEs. Two decades ago, few believed that India could become a global player in the auto industry; today, it's the third-largest producer of cars worldwide. Anirudh Bhuwalka, CEO of Blue Energy Motors, believes that with the PM E-Drive, the industry can look forward to new opportunities for innovation in EV.
The dramatic surge in the industry was driven by leaders recognizing the long-term advantages of localization. A similar spirit of collaboration between the industry and government is now essential to position India as a global EV hub. With the new PM E-Drive scheme, the key objective is to speed up the transition to EVs by offering upfront incentives for purchases and the development of charging infrastructure.
These schemes must enhance the scope, utilization, and efficiency of their incentives in line with growing demand. Nishant Arya, Vice Chairman & Managing Director, JBM Auto Ltd, said that "INR 3,435 crore investment towards payment security mechanism will provide the much-awaited impetus to OEMs and will act as a cornerstone to establish the electric bus sector and attract substantial global investors.
Despite the progress made, the overall impact remains limited, with a need for a significant increase in EV volumes over the next three to four years. At present, EV penetration is higher in two- and three-wheelers, while the passenger car segment still has considerable ground to cover. The future looks promising, though. The EV journey is still in its early stages, and greater localization will help keep costs in check — a critical factor as subsidies won't last forever. As manufacturers crack the code on cost structure, sales will soar, creating a need for more skilled workers in the EV market.
Nitin Gupta, CEO & Co-founder of Attero, believes PM E-Drive presents a major opportunity to scale up recycling operations and meet the increasing demand for sustainable solutions. With the government investing in developing fast chargers, e-ambulances, e-trucks, and e-buses, there are promising opportunities to forge strategic partnerships with EV manufacturers and public transport agencies.
In recent months, major announcements from manufacturers like Ford and Tata Motors have revealed large electrification plans, particularly in Tamil Nadu. Hyundai has also committed massive investments to the state, signaling the creation of an aggressive roadmap. This will gain further momentum as free trade agreements with ASEAN, Europe, and the UK progress. Collaborations with international entities for cutting-edge technologies and fostering innovation in the EV industry will also add great value to this journey.
India is well-positioned to create new opportunities in the EV space, leveraging its strengths in IT and software. The world will increasingly view India as a reliable hub for manufacturing and supplying electric vehicles.
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