BHP banks on China export resilience and India growth for demand
The world's biggest miner said that although China's economic growth could slow in the coming quarters from a high base, the country's exports will remain solid, according to its annual economic and commodity outlook published on Tuesday (Aug 19).
'The cost competitiveness of Chinese goods that accumulated in recent years, particularly while other countries faced significant inflation, means China's exports will likely remain relatively resilient,' Graham Slack, BHP's chief economist, said in the report.
This outlook is a positive signal for the world's biggest steel market, which has stuttered as the Chinese economy matures and the nation struggles to shake off a years-long property slump. China's steel exports have remained resilient, pumping out 9.8 million tonnes in July, up from the previous month, despite some predictions it would fall and weaker nationwide output.
BHP's full-year underlying profit fell by over a quarter as key earners iron ore and coking coal came under pressure. Still, the company, which sells a significant proportion of its exports to China, sees recent infrastructure announcements, including a major dam project in Tibet, as underscoring Beijing's policy flexibility and willingness to invest, Slack's report said.
BHP also noted that additional supply from Guinea's giant Simandou project, expected to deliver high-grade iron ore fines, may not compete for supply with BHP's Western Australian Pilbara mid-grade assets, and the potential worsening oversupply issue could be softened by grade depletion in traditional hubs.
Meanwhile, infrastructure spending and manufacturing expansion in India are expected to drive a sharp rise in metals demand, Slack said. The nation, which has exported an average of 30 million tonnes of iron ore annually over the past nine years, is likely to become an 'opportunistic importer', particularly during periods of domestic supply disruption, he added.
For copper, BHP expects Chinese demand in 2026 to remain strong, although it may slow slightly from highs as tariffs make impacts. The disruptions to mine supply globally could also offer support, the report said.
Copper slipped 0.4 per cent to settle at US$9,692 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, while aluminium dropped 1 per cent and tin was up 0.4 per cent. BLOOMBERG
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Straits Times
4 minutes ago
- Straits Times
Boeing in talks to sell as many as 500 planes to China: Sources
Boeing is heading closer toward finalising a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter, a transaction that would end a sales drought that stretches back to US President Donald Trump's last visit in 2017. The two sides are still hammering out terms of the complex aircraft sale, including the types and volume of jet models and delivery timetables, according to one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters. The mega sale to China, years in the making, is contingent on the two nations defusing the trade hostilities that hark back to Mr Trump's first term in office – and could still fall apart, they said. Chinese officials have already started consulting domestic airlines about how many Boeing aircraft they'll need, the people said. The transaction taking shape is similar in scope to the order for as many as 500 jets that China's central planners have struck with Airbus, but haven't yet announced, they added. The Boeing order is expected to be the centerpiece of a trade agreement that would benefit both Mr Trump and China's President Xi Jinping, the culmination of long-running and sometimes contentious negotiations. The nation's leaders were close to a similar announcement in 2023, but then-President Joe Biden and Xi left a San Francisco summit without consummating an aircraft sale. Complicating matters for Boeing is a leadership void in China. Mr Alvin Liu, its top executive in China and a fluent Mandarin-speaker with extensive government contacts, left the company in recent weeks. Carol Shen has been named interim president of Boeing China, said people familiar with the matter. Boeing declined to comment on any potential deal or management changes. Shares of the US planemaker advanced less than 1 per cent in New York on Aug 21 following Bloomberg's report, as most members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. The stock had risen 27 per cent this year amid a turnaround under Chief executive officer Kelly Ortberg. Aircraft orders for Boeing have figured large in US diplomacy since Trump returned to the White House in January, with nations touting new, tentative and existing deals for airplanes, which are as expensive as skyscrapers, to narrow trade imbalances with the US. The US and China have engaged in several rounds of talks since de-escalating tit-for-tat tariffs that soared to as high as 145 per cent, but have yet to reach a final trade deal. Earlier in the summer, Mr Xi, in a phone call, invited Mr Trump to China at an unspecified date. One opportunity for the pair to meet is in late October, ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. For China, the deal would secure aircraft delivery slots that are hard to come by at both Boeing and Airbus, which are largely sold out into the 2030s. The world's second-largest aviation market is expected to more than double its commercial fleet to 9,755 airplanes over the next 20 years, by Boeing's estimation, far more than China's homegrown planemaker Comac could manufacture. While Boeing slots are scarce, the company likely has some flexibility in its delivery schedule to accommodate strategic customers, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a research note. The country's top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, recently sought input from Chinese carriers about how many jets they want, one of the people said. Talks centred on the 737 Max series of aircraft, Boeing's popular single-aisle jet, in a sign Beijing is laying the groundwork for a major order. Boeing's last Chinese deal was unveiled in November 2017 during Mr Trump's first state visit to China. The deal amounted to orders and commitments for 300 single-aisle and twin-aisle planes valued at US$37 billion (S$47.7 billion) at the time. The next year, Boeing's China deliveries peaked, when a quarter of its jets ended up in the mainland. Airbus has dominated sales and deliveries to China since 2019, when the nation's regulators were the first to ground the 737 Max after two fatal accidents. Boeing has notched only 30 orders with Chinese carriers and leasing companies since the start of 2019, according to the company's website. In an interview with Bloomberg in January, CEO Ortberg was optimistic that years of talks with Beijing would finally pay off. 'We certainly hope that there's an opportunity for some additional orders in the next year with China,' he said. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
33 minutes ago
- Business Times
Trump weighs using US$2 billion in Chips Act funding for critical minerals, sources say
THE Trump administration is considering a plan to reallocate at least US$2 billion from the Chips Act to fund critical minerals projects and boost Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's influence over the strategic sector, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The proposed move would take from funds already allocated by Congress for semiconductor research and chip factory construction, avoiding a fresh spending request as it seeks to reduce US dependence on China for critical minerals used widely in the electronics and defence industries. Boosting Lutnick's role over critical minerals financing would also help centralise the administration's approach to the sector, a push sought by White House officials after the rollout of the Pentagon investment in rare earths company MP Materials last month sparked questions about the US government's minerals strategy, one source said. The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Pentagon officials were not immediately available to comment. MP Materials declined to comment. The Commerce Department oversees the US$52.7 billion Chips Act, formally known as the Chips and Science Act. The act, signed into law by then-President Joe Biden in 2022, has provided funding so far for research while also seeking to lure chip production away from Asia and boost American domestic semiconductor production. But since taking office in January, Trump has moved to change the Chips Act - legislation he has called 'a horrible, horrible thing' that amounts to a giveaway to companies - largely by renegotiating grants to chipmakers. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Repurposing some funds for mining-related projects would align in part with the spirit of the Chips Act as the semiconductor industry requires abundant supplies of germanium, gallium and other critical minerals over which China has tightened its market control, said the sources, who are not permitted to speak publicly about the deliberations. 'The administration is creatively trying to find ways to fund the critical minerals sector,' said the first source. The plans are under discussion and could change, the sources added. Mining companies themselves could benefit, but also processing and recycling firms. Most of the minerals considered critical by the US government are not processed inside the country. Kent Masters, CEO of North Carolina-based Albemarle , the world's largest producer of lithium for rechargeable batteries, told Reuters last month that the company's stalled plans to build a US lithium refinery are 'difficult now without some type of government support or partnership.' It was not immediately clear if the Trump administration aimed to use the funds for grants or equity stakes in mining companies, but Lutnick aims to 'get the US$2 billion out the door' as soon as possible, the first source said, adding that the administration aims to find other funds to reallocate in the near future. A former US official said the Biden administration considered using Chips Act grants for rare earths but decided it was uneconomical, required many environmental exemptions and was best left for the Department of Energy to handle. The administration is also looking to use Chips Act-related funding to take equity stakes in Intel and other chip makers in exchange for cash grants, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Trump moved quickly to expand US critical minerals production since taking office in January by signing executive orders to boost deep-sea mining and domestic projects. On Tuesday he met with the CEOs of Rio Tinto and BHP at the White House despite the ongoing negotiations with European leaders over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a move aimed at underscoring his support for US mining. The Chips Act deliberations come after the Energy Department last week proposed US$1 billion in spending for some critical minerals projects, with funds tied to the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Lutnick The White House aims to give Lutnick a greater role over funding decisions for critical minerals by giving him oversight of the decision making process within the administration, the sources said. The Pentagon's multibillion-dollar investment in MP Materials and its move to extend a price support mechanism - a deal negotiated by Deputy Defence Secretary Steve Feinberg - was seen by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles as uncoordinated as it sparked confusion over whether Washington would guarantee a price floor for all miners and forced the administration to clarify that it does not intend for MP to have a rare earths monopoly, the two sources said. Much of the funding for MP's deal - including Washington's equity stake, loans and purchase agreements - still needs to be allocated by Congress. Two weeks after the Pentagon announced its MP investment, administration officials rushed to meet at the White House with rare earths firms and their customers to underscore broad support for the entire sector, Reuters reported. Lutnick will now help coordinate the administration's funding decisions, taking the lead from the Pentagon and other agencies, the sources said. Lutnick ran brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald before he joined Trump's cabinet. Cantor is a large shareholder in Critical Metals Corp, which Reuters reported in June is under consideration for a loan from the US Export-Import Bank. REUTERS
Straits Times
33 minutes ago
- Straits Times
Trump weighs using $2.58 billion in Chips Act funding for critical minerals, sources say
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Repurposing some funds for mining-related projects would align in part with the spirit of the Chips Act. WASHINGTON - The Trump administration is considering a plan to reallocate at least US$2 billion (S$2.58 billion) from the Chips Act to fund critical minerals projects and boost Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's influence over the strategic sector, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The proposed move would take from funds already allocated by Congress for semiconductor research and chip factory construction, avoiding a fresh spending request as it seeks to reduce US dependence on China for critical minerals used widely in the electronics and defence industries. Boosting Mr Lutnick's role over critical minerals financing would also help centralise the administration's approach to the sector, a push sought by White House officials after the rollout of the Pentagon investment in rare earths company MP Materials in July sparked questions about the US government's minerals strategy, one source said. The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Pentagon officials were not immediately available to comment. MP Materials declined to comment. The Commerce Department oversees the US$52.7 billion Chips Act, formally known as the Chips and Science Act. The Act, signed into law by then-President Joe Biden in 2022, has provided funding so far for research while also seeking to lure chip production away from Asia and boost American domestic semiconductor production. But since taking office in January, Mr Trump has moved to change the Chips Act - legislation he has called 'a horrible, horrible thing' that amounts to a giveaway to companies - largely by renegotiating grants to chipmakers. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore New ACS special education school to take in 100 pupils with autism in January 2026 Singapore Courier tip-off leads to HSA seizure of Kpods, drugs in Tampines and Grange Road raids Business Changi Travel Services cuts 30 staff amid market shifts Singapore Eavesdropping on monkeys in Singapore to watch out for emerging diseases World Trump gives two weeks to assess Russia-Ukraine peace prospects Opinion A Trumpian game of ping pong over Ukraine's future Asia Crackdown on illegal ride-hailing between JB and Singapore has spooked touts Opinion Why that hand-wringing over The Projector isn't pointless Repurposing some funds for mining-related projects would align in part with the spirit of the Chips Act as the semiconductor industry requires abundant supplies of germanium, gallium and other critical minerals over which China has tightened its market control, said the sources, who are not permitted to speak publicly about the deliberations. 'The administration is creatively trying to find ways to fund the critical minerals sector,' said the first source. The plans are under discussion and could change, the sources added. Mining companies themselves could benefit, but also processing and recycling firms. Most of the minerals considered critical by the US government are not processed inside the country. Mr Kent Masters, CEO of North Carolina-based Albemarle, the world's largest producer of lithium for rechargeable batteries, told Reuters in July that the company's stalled plans to build a US lithium refinery are 'difficult now without some type of government support or partnership.' It was not immediately clear if the Trump administration aimed to use the funds for grants or equity stakes in mining companies, but Mr Lutnick aims to 'get the US$2 billion out the door' as soon as possible, the first source said, adding that the administration aims to find other funds to reallocate in the near future. A former US official said the Biden administration considered using Chips Act grants for rare earths but decided it was uneconomical, required many environmental exemptions and was best left for the Department of Energy to handle. The administration is also looking to use Chips Act-related funding to take equity stakes in Intel and other chipmakers in exchange for cash grants, Reuters reported on Aug 19. Mr Trump moved quickly to expand US critical minerals production since taking office in January by signing executive orders to boost deep-sea mining and domestic projects. On Aug 19, he met with the CEOs of Rio Tinto and BHP at the White House despite the ongoing negotiations with European leaders over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a move aimed at underscoring his support for US mining. The Chips Act deliberations come after the Energy Department last week proposed US$1 billion in spending for some critical minerals projects, with funds tied to the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The White House aims to give Mr Lutnick a greater role over funding decisions for critical minerals by giving him oversight of the decision-making process within the administration, the sources said. The Pentagon's multibillion-dollar investment in MP Materials and its move to extend a price support mechanism - a deal negotiated by Deputy Defence Secretary Steve Feinberg - was seen by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles as uncoordinated as it sparked confusion over whether Washington would guarantee a price floor for all miners and forced the administration to clarify that it does not intend for MP to have a rare earths monopoly, the two sources said. Much of the funding for MP's deal - including Washington's equity stake, loans and purchase agreements - still needs to be allocated by Congress. Two weeks after the Pentagon announced its MP investment, administration officials rushed to meet at the White House with rare earths firms and their customers to underscore broad support for the entire sector, Reuters reported. Mr Lutnick will now help coordinate the administration's funding decisions, taking the lead from the Pentagon and other agencies, the sources said. Mr Lutnick ran brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald before he joined Mr Trump's Ccabinet. Cantor is a large shareholder in Critical Metals Corp, which Reuters reported in June is under consideration for a loan from the US Export-Import Bank. REUTERS
