USC, Lincoln Riley recruiting forecasts college football resurgence

The Herald Scotland

14-05-2025

The same road that Pete Carroll used to build the Trojans into a 2000s monster, awakening years of underachieving with a tried and true formula.
Recruit elite players, develop elite players.
Win championships.
The fact that USC has the nation's No.1 recruiting class in the 247Sports Composite heading into the critical summer months is one thing. That Riley has done it without significant success - and frankly, more underachieving - can't be good news for coaches and general managers around the nation who know what can be when the Trojans are rolling.
Because right now, it's not. Yet, anyway.
Riley is 15-13 in his last 28 games at one of the top five jobs in college football. The university is still on the hook for a Jimbo Fisher-sized buyout, so he's not going anywhere.
But there's something about the way last season ended, how a physical bowl win over Texas A&M gave the Trojans wins over SEC heavyweights to begin the season (LSU) and end it.
How that statement then dovetailed into offseason recruiting momentum for 2025 and 2026. How that momentum, and building organically through high school recruiting - and the play of quarterback Jayden Maiava at the end of last season - allowed Riley to pass on low-hanging fruit.
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Tennessee transfer Nico Iamaleava was available last month, and USC didn't jump. Didn't need the headache, didn't want it.
The Riley of three years ago, desperate to flip the roster any way he could and find a quick fix, would've thrown money at Iamaleava. Now he's doubling down on Maiava, and a group of second- and third-year players he and his staff recruited and developed -- who are beginning to find it.
"It's a together team right now," Riley said last month. "Let's put things right in front of these guys because they want to be great. They want to be coached hard, they want to be pushed."
That, more than anything, could be the defining moment of Riley's three uneven seasons at USC. Not the empty calories of Caleb Williams' Heisman Trophy season in 2022, but a real, tangible moment of growth.
A reason for the university to feel better about its $120 million investment in a head coach (including an estimated $15-20 million buyout of former coach Clay Helton), to see what could be after two ugly seasons of what isn't.
To see through six losses in 2024, and understand that four were by a combined 12 points and five were one-possession games.
Nothing is easy about the USC job. Carroll and his charisma, and the way his personality and vibe fit Los Angeles like those cool summer nights at Chavez Ravine, made it hip again. Made the Trojans must-see in a city where everyone and everything fights for oxygen.
You can't expect to plop a lifelong Texan into the job - the experience - and think there won't be a transition. It's a long way from the town of Muleshoe (population, 5,000) in West Texas, much less Norman, Oklahoma, to fashionably late in L.A.
Make no mistake, 15-13 in the last 28 games isn't good. In fact, it's dangerously close to the world of have we made a mistake?
USC isn't paying an ungodly amount of money to Riley and his staff, and committing a ridiculous amount of NIL funds for the roster buildout, to lose to the Minnesotas and Marylands of the world.
Riley likes this team and its makeup, likes the way it practices and prepares. But to get USC back to must-see, he must win now -- enough to prove the program is closer to reaching the now rare but undeniable process.
Recruit elite players, develop elite players. Win championships.
The 2026 recruiting class is far ahead of the field, and USC is still high on the list for six of the Top 25 players in the 247Sports composite.
The surge of momentum is quietly building, lost in the sea of change within the sport.
"There seems to be a genuine bond right now with these guys that's fun to see," Riley said.
If Riley truly has figured it out, USC will eventually be a problem for everyone.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.