Can Leclerc Hold Pole? What To Watch At The Hungarian GP

Forbes

03-08-2025

Changing conditions and a qualifying session that surprised even its pole-sitter. Charles Leclerc took top spot on Saturday, displacing McLaren's expectations of front-row dominance with a lap that stunned even him.
'I definitely did not expect that,' said Leclerc. Earlier in the week, he called the Hungaroring 'by far the worst track of the season' for him, a place where he struggles to adapt his natural driving style. Yet when it mattered, he delivered.
'Honestly, I have no words,' he said. 'It's probably one of the best pole positions I've ever had because it's the most unexpected, for sure.'
When the conditions changed in Q3, windier, with a noticeable drop in track temperature, grip levels shifted dramatically. Drivers who had looked dominant earlier suddenly found themselves chasing the car. It was in that window that the McLarens struggled and Leclerc struck. If similar conditions arise during the race, there will definitely be a shakeup in the regular race order and if Leclerc can hang on to his position after the first corner, he's in with a shot to take victory.
Can Piastri Hold Off Norris?
Championship-leader Oscar Piastri starts on the front row behind the Monegasque. Despite this being his first real title fight at the top tier of motorsport, the Australian has remained remarkably composed under pressure.
For the championship battle as a whole, Hungary could be a turning point. Piastri is a mere 16 points ahead of Norris in the standings. If Piastri gets the better launch off the line and clears Leclerc into Turn 1, he becomes the clear favorite. With the race pace they've shown in long runs, Piastri has every chance of controlling the tempo from the front.
But breathing right in his mirrors is Lando Norris. The Hungaroring is often referred to as a 'Monaco without walls,' referring to its tight layout and the rhythm it demands. The Briton's performance in Monte-Carlo could be a reflection of what's to come today as he seems to have the upper hand on his teammate when it comes to the slow-speed corners.
George Russell–Quiet Threat
Mercedes have struggled in recent weekends, with both drivers appearing uneasy through corner entry, a telltale sign of a car not responding. But one pattern has emerged this season: when the track temperature drops, the Silver Arrows seem to sharpen. Sunday's conditions are expected to mirror what we saw in Q3, where cooler air helped unlock a better balance. If that trend holds, George Russell could be a quiet threat, from P4 to perhaps for a late podium charge if the frontrunners trip up.
Aston Martin From Back Row To Front Fight
At Spa, Aston Martin were buried at the back with both cars starting on the last row of the grid. Just one week later in Hungary, Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll will line up P5 and P6 respectively. It's a remarkable turnaround, and while recent upgrades, particularly to the rear wing for added downforce, are part of the story, there may be more at play.
"The car didn't change much for anybody and it seemed that this layout and these characteristics are better for our package, so we need to maximise these kinds of weekends,' said Alonso.
The Hungaroring's twisty nature may be masking the car's high-speed weaknesses, a window of opportunity the team will be eager to capitalise on. Alonso, nursing a muscular back injury, remains as relentless as ever so expect the two-time champion to wring every tenth from the car on Sunday.
Verstappen In The Wilderness
For Max Verstappen, it's been another uphill weekend. The Dutchman spent most of practice wrestling with a lack of grip and a car that seemed unwilling to rotate the way he likes. He qualified eighth; not disastrous but well below where Red Bull was last year. What's more concerning is how he's struggled to assert dominance over the Aston Martins, who seem more planted in the mixed conditions. Still, if rain arrives on Sunday, it could swing momentum his way. In the wet, Verstappen seems to thrive, especially when the car stops being the difference and instinct becomes the great equalizer.
Hamilton's History Says Don't Count Him Out
While teammate Leclerc snatched pole, Lewis Hamilton struggled — at least on paper. But is it really as bad as it looks? Throughout practice, Hamilton seemed to wrestle with the car's balance, yet his lap times weren't far off Leclerc's. Missing out on Q3 denied him the opportunity to make the most of the mixed conditions, where he typically shines.
It's not the first time either. At Spa, he qualified poorly but turned it around with an early pit stop and clinical overtakes to climb back into the points. The Hungarian GP could follow a similar script. He's won eight times at the Hungaroring, more than anyone in history, and taken nine pole positions. Sunday may be less about glory and more about damage limitation, and he's done that dance before.
Six drivers, within one tenth in Qx3. Weather that won't make up its mind. Like in Spa, the track might start off wet and then begin to dry, but visibility might allow more wet-weather running.
Title rivals side-by-side on the grid. And a pack of experienced rain-dancers waiting to pounce.
Hungary may be the last race before summer break but it could be the one that sets the tone for the rest of the season. Expect tension. Expect surprises. And maybe expect chaos.
Starting Grid:
P1: Charles Leclerc / Ferrari
P2: Oscar Piastri / McLaren
P3: Lando Norris / McLaren
P4: George Russell / Mercedes
P5: Fernando Alonso / Aston Martin
P6: Lance Stroll / Aston Martin
P7: Gabriel Bortoleto / Kick Sauber
P8: Max Verstappen / Red Bull Racing
P9: Liam Lawson / Racing Bulls
P10: Isack Hadjar / Racing Bulls
P11: Oliver Bearman / Haas
P12: Lewis Hamilton / Ferrari
P13: Carlos Sainz / Williams
P14: Franco Colapinto / Alpine
P15: Kimi Antonelli / Mercedes
P16: Yuki Tsunoda / Red Bull Racing
P17: Pierre Gasly / Alpine
P18: Esteban Ocon / Haas
P19: Nico Hulkenberg / Kick Sauber
P20: Alexander Albon / Williams