Ontario mortgage delinquencies at highest level ever recorded, Equifax says
More Ontarians are missing mortgage payments than at any time since Equifax started tracking them in 2012, according to new data from the credit agency.
'Delinquencies are really still rising on the mortgage side,' said Rebecca Oakes, vice-president of advanced analytics at Equifax Canada.
'We're still very concerned about those.'
Ontario's 90-plus day mortgage delinquency rate rose 71.5 per cent since the first quarter of 2024, to 0.24 per cent from 0.14.
Nationally it's at the highest level since 2016-2017.
The mortgage stress test was introduced starting in 2016, which brought down missed payments, but now those numbers are creeping back up again, despite the fact that it's still in place, said Oakes.
This is because of all the mortgages opened during the pandemic with high balances and low rates.
'Now you're seeing people coming off those low rates. And it's a challenge,' Oakes said.
She added that Ontario is likely dealing with more missed payments because of high home prices, particularly in the GTA, and a rising unemployment rate.
Due to its close ties to the U.S., the province is also more vulnerable to economic uncertainty around the ongoing trade war.
The mortgage delinquency rate is always a relatively small number, she said, because mortgage payments are typically the last thing to go when Canadians face financial hurdles.
They will miss other payments on things like credit cards and cars before putting their homes at risk.
Nationally, missed payments continued to rise on credit cards, and more than 1.4 million consumers (1 in 22) missed at least one credit payment during the first quarter of the year.
New mortgage originations were up 66 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same time last year in Ontario, and about 58 per cent nationally.
But Oakes said this reflects people shopping around for better rates, as part of the 'Great Renewal' of pandemic era mortgages.
More than a million mortgages are set to renew in Canada this year and borrowers are facing much higher monthly payments.
Victor Tran, a RATESDOTCA mortgage and real estate expert, said it's worth it to look for a better rate as even a small difference means you'll save money.
With sales down, banks and brokers are all competing for the best renewal rates, even offering incentives like cash back or credit card points.
'It's almost a race to the bottom,' he said.
Interest rates are down somewhat but mortgage rates are also tied to the bond market, which has been impacted by the economic uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Trump administration and the ongoing trade war.
As bond yields increase, fixed rates will follow suit, Tran said. That's why it's a good move to lock in a pre-approval, whether you're renewing, or planning on buying a home.
As for those looking to purchase their first home, the picture is still not exactly rosy, Oakes said.
New mortgages for first-time buyers in Ontario were up about 38 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, but that's more of a recovery from losses over the last two years.
'You know, 12 months ago, it was at very low levels. So it's up, but kind of from a low point,' said Oakes.
'Yes, the interest rates coming down means payments are coming down a bit. But actually the average loan size is still increasing. So it's not great if you're first-time home buyers still at all.'
Alison Kemper, an assistant professor, at Toronto Metropolitan University's Ted Rogers School of Management, said tktktk
'it's enormously concerning'
people need housing, just heard the King talk about it this morning
'there's no stability over time in interest rates, and there's pretty small amount of stability in the price of housing'
'most of us are not financial wizards that can foresee these things'
'it's enormously problematic that you have to call the shots perfectly to be able to have a place for you and your family to live securely.'
'we're not builindg what we need we only build income properties'
'people are paying such an inflated amount of their income as rent.'
'The first thing you make sure you do in life is to pay your mortgage, but people aren't doing that, because the whole system is so broken now.'
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Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account The poll suggests that 38 per cent of Canadians say they feel less confident now about the future of Canada-U.S. trade as well as trade between the U.S. and other countries. Sixteen per cent of Canadian respondents say they feel more confident, while 37 per cent say their level confidence in the future of the trade relationship hasn't changed. The Leger poll, which was conducted online and can't be assigned a margin of error, surveyed more than 1,500 people between May 30 and June 1. The poll also surveyed more than 1,000 Americans. Their responses to the poll were substantially similar. Thirty-six per cent of American respondents said the recent court rulings and the ongoing legal battle over Trump's tariffs made them feel less confident about the future of trade with Canada and with the rest of the world. Another 19 per cent reported feeling more confident and 31 per cent said their opinion hadn't changed. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Trump's tariffs are still hitting most countries around the world after a federal appeals court temporarily paused a decision last week by the U.S. Court of International Trade to block his tariffs. The court said Trump went beyond his authority when he used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to take his trade war to the world. 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While many Canadians expressed concern about the future of trade relationships, many also said the fact that U.S. courts are trying to limit Trump's impact on trade policy increases their trust in America's institutions. The poll suggests that 45 per cent of Canadians say their trust in U.S. democratic institutions has increased, while 17 per cent say it has decreased. Almost a third of Canadians said it has had no impact on their opinion. Quebecers were the most likely to say their trust had increased, at 54 per cent, compared to 45 per cent of people in B.C., 43 per cent of Ontarians and 39 per cent of Albertans. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Canadians aged 55 and over were more likely to say their trust had increased than younger Canadians. Among the Americans surveyed, 38 per cent said the fact that U.S. courts are trying to limit Trump's trade powers increases their trust in U.S. democratic institutions. 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