Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Stock Watch: Matt Shaw falling, JJ Wetherholt rising

NBC Sports

17-04-2025

Prospects are risky. Matt Shaw's early-season demotion to Triple-A Iowa after just 18 games further illustrates the Grand Canyon-sized gap between the big leagues and upper minors that even consensus top prospects struggle to traverse. The 23-year-old corner infielder entered the year positioned to make an immediate five-category impact as a potential 20-homer, 25-steal threat for fantasy managers after posting a .284/.379/.488 triple-slash line with 19 homers and 31 steals in 121 games last year in the upper minors. The surface stats don't tell the entire story, but they're impossible to ignore after Shaw compiled a disastrous .172 (10-for-58) with one homer and 18 strikeouts in 68 plate appearances. His underwhelming 82.7 percent average exit velocity ranked in the bottom-10 out of 279 qualified hitters, per Baseball Savant.
Shaw's lightning-quick demotion doesn't come as a total shock given his calamitous performance, but it's extremely surprising from the standpoint that he was viewed by most fantasy analysts, including most of us here at Rotoworld, as one of the top prospects with the highest likelihood to succeed right away based on his combination of opportunity, immense talent and lengthy track record. Here's an oversimplification: Buy the dip. Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding Shaw's long-term outlook besides the fact that he'll spend the next couple weeks, if not longer, resetting and rebuilding his confidence at Triple-A Iowa. Early season results matter, and dynasty managers shouldn't completely dismiss Shaw's unexpected flop at the highest level, but it's such a small sample size that it shouldn't impact his long-term outlook.
Rotoworld's Dynasty Stock Watch is a weekly podcast for your eyes that takes a deeper dive into trending prospects from a long-term perspective. We'll occasionally touch on notable developments with universally-regarded top prospects, but my colleague Chris Crawford does a phenomenal job each Monday breaking down the handful of top prospects on the verge of helping fantasy managers in re-draft formats. His latest installment Roman Anthony, Jordan Lawlar, Nick Kurtz, Coby Mayo and Bubba Chandler.
This week's edition examines a handful of prospects on the rise including JJ Wetherholt, Ryan Sloan, Josue De Paula, Robby Snelling and Jesús Made. Last week's edition broke down strong early-season performances from Lazaro Montes, Felnin Celesten, Thomas White, Ryan Waldschmidt, Nolan McLean, Braylon Payne, Brandon Young and Manuel Rodriguez. Without further delay, let's dive in.
JJ Wetherholt, SS, Cardinals
The seventh-overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt managed to snap out of an ice-cold 0-for-14 start to the season at Double-A Springfield with five-multi-hit performances over his last six contests. The 22-year-old shortstop tallied three hits, including his first round-tripper of the season, on Wednesday evening, raising his full-season slash line to a robust .342/.429/.512 through 10 contests.
JJ Wetherholt (MLB No. 21) swats an oppo 🌮 for his first Double-A homer!
The @Cardinals' 2024 first-rounder is slashing .480/.517/.720 over his past six contests for the @Sgf_Cardinals. pic.twitter.com/c9d7OgIwM3
Wetherholt rarely strikes out, thanks an opposite field-oriented line-drive approach that's primarily geared towards driving the ball into the gaps. Just because he isn't hitting for over-the-fence power doesn't mean he's making weak contact as evidenced by a stratospheric 105.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity last year in his pro debut at Low-A Palm Beach. It doesn't sound like the prototypical fantasy superstar recipe, but his combination of fantasy-relevant skills, which include above-average bat-to-ball ability and plus speed, make it easy to envision him as a strong batting average and steals source as a top-of-the-order sparkplug in St. Louis. He'll ascend to top-15 range dynasty prospect status in Rotoworld's next rankings update.
Ryan Sloan, SP, Mariners
Sloan was one of the handful of pitchers Baseball America's staff highlighted during spring training that generated a ton of buzz from scouts on the Arizona backfield. The 19-year-old right-hander was an over-slot second-round selection in the 2024 MLB Draft and is quickly blossoming into one of the top pitching prospects in baseball from a fantasy standpoint, thanks to his front-of-the-rotation starter kit. He looked un-hittable on Wednesday in his latest outing for Low-A Modesto, recording seven strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings, thanks to a mid-90's heater and a hard-biting slider combination.
That offspeed stuff from @Mariners 2024 second-rounder Ryan Sloan 😯
3.2 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 1 BB | 7 K
The top-ranked prep righty in last year's Draft class dominates in his second pro start for the Single-A @ModestoNuts: pic.twitter.com/2NlyhFGjp7
Seattle's track record of success developing homegrown talent in recent years provides further optimism that Sloan could become their next success story as he moves quickly through their system over the next few months. The fact that he's a pitcher amplifies the risk in his fantasy profile, but the stuff has looked borderline elite so far. He was a known commodity for dynasty managers entering spring training but isn't quite a household name yet outside of long-term formats. That's about to change, especially if he reaches the upper minors by the end of the year. He's the type of prospect that dynasty managers should prioritize targeting in trade discussions before his value skyrockets out of control.
Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers
De Paula and teammate Zyhir Hope entered the year as borderline top-20 prospects from a dynasty perspective and they've done nothing to dampen enthusiasm with their respective early-season performances for High-A Great Lakes. The 19-year-old prodigy remains a work in progress, especially from a defensive standpoint, but he's hitting .243 (9-for-37) with six extra-base hits and two steals through 10 games this season. He launched his second round-tripper of the season on Wednesday night, crushing a gargantuan grand slam to right field.
Josue De Paula (MLB No. 37) GRAND SLAM!
Six of the @Dodgers prospect's nine knocks for the High-A @greatlakesloons this season have gone for extra bases. pic.twitter.com/YpgExNOZY3
He's an extremely advanced hitter from a plate skills perspective considering his age and experience, which is one of the reasons dynasty managers can confidently forecast him taking a leap forward as he continues to mature physically. It seems strange to suggest that a 19-year-old bat-first corner outfield prospect is a high-floor fantasy prospect, but that's basically what we're looking at here. He'll be one of the youngest players in the Texas League once he reaches Double-A in a couple months, if not sooner. He's going to hit and has a real shot to arrive in the majors in a couple hyperspace jumps as a fully-formed five-category impact contributor.
Robby Snelling, SP, Marlins
Snelling's dynasty stock cratered in recent years when his command took a massive step backwards upon reaching Double-A when he was still a member of the Padres' system. The 21-year-old southpaw, who is still relatively raw as a pitcher relative to his peers, turned things around after being shipped to Miami at last year's trade deadline, providing further evidence that development isn't linear.
He's gotten off to a phenomenal start this season at Double-A Pensacola, compiling a sparkling 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 20/2 K/BB ratio across 16 1/3 innings (three starts). He He's the type of pitching prospect that figures to rise significantly in dynasty rankings over the next few months if his control gains stick and he continues missing bats in the upper minors.
Jesús Made, SS, Brewers
Spoiler alert: Made will be making frequent appearances in this space over the next few months as he continues to ascend to elite dynasty prospect status. He's making serious early-season noise at Low-A Carolina, hitting .400 (8-for-20) with five extra-base hits and three steals over his last five games since April 11.
Jesus Made looks right at home in Carolina, putting up a .412 OBP / .571 SLG / .983 OPS slash line with 5 XBH and 4 SB in his first 7 affiliated games 💪#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/JeA4dvYbFw
It's not hyperbolic to suggest that he could be the top-overall prospect in the dynasty landscape at this time next year. The 17-year-old switch-hitting phenom's preternatural ability to hit for power without sacrificing anything from an approach standpoint at such a young age against competition nearly a presidential term older than him almost defies explanation. The usual long-term risk caveats apply to any prospect this far from the big leagues, but he's backing up the stratospheric hype and looks like a potential generational talent. Seriously.