Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira prediction, pick: Who gets KO'd at UFC Nashville?

USA Today

11-07-2025

Heavyweights headline UFC's return to 'Music City'
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 70 main event between Derrick Lewis and Tallison Teixeira.
Derrick Lewis UFC on ESPN 70 preview
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Tallison Teixeira UFC on ESPN 70 preview
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Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira point of interest: Heavyweight hands
The main event in Nashville features a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and Tallison Teixeira.
Stepping onto the scene as an unabashed brawler, Lewis has shown some signs of improvement underneath the scary destructions that often take place in his fights. An athletic mover for his size, Lewis can throw accurate knees and head kicks with little signs of struggle.
A downright scary distance closer when he chooses to be, Lewis can force his opponents into the fence whether or not he lands on them, almost in a juggernaut-like fashion. With a frame that is hard to control in close, the 40-year-old slugger does his best work when striking off the breaks, maintaining a dangerous potency in small spaces that go deep into the fight.
Lewis also has an appetite for the counter, showing that he's not beyond setting traps and playing possum in order to draw his opponents into his uncanny power. That said, Lewis will still need to respect what is coming his way this Saturday.
Enter Teixiera.
Although Teixiera is clearly lacking in the experience department, I can see why many are high on the prospects of this young heavyweight.
Despite Teixeira's insane height, he actually moves quite well for a big man and is not afraid to utilize tools like a long jab. The Brazilian also packs wicked power in his rear hand, but kicks, particularly to the body, may serve Teixeira well in this spot.
Teixeira may not go to the body as much as I'd like, but he has shown some decent change-ups from front teeps to Thai kicks that help exentuate his length. Teixeira will blitz forward in combination when he's feeling in stride, but he'll need to be careful about crowding his work into the clinch – an area where Lewis can stage comebacks.
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the high potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor.
Despite Lewis showing improved offensive wrestling and a surprising ability to hit inside trips in recent years, Teixeira is the more dangerous grappler on paper.
Although we've seen very little of Teixeira's ground game, the 25-year-old owns a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and has apparently been grappling since childhood. Teixeira only has one submission win on his resume, but between that win being an inverted triangle-armbar to his history training with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, I suspect that the lengthy heavyweight has solid dexterity to boot.
When it comes to wrestling, Teixeira has shown a servicable double leg he can go to when his opponents find their back against the fence. That said, effectively taking down and grounding someone like Lewis is easier said than done.
Traditionally dealing with fighters who are trying to grapple him, Lewis wields deceptively effective counter-grappling tactics. Whether he's hoisting his opponent up with a whizzer or shucking someone off with an underhook, Lewis has been hard to take down along the fence, as single legs or outside trips in open space seem to be what gets him grounded most.
Even when successfully taken down, Lewis still offers a lot of sneaky static in regard to stymying submission attempts and strikes.
Like a sand shark lying in wait, Lewis plays a conservative game when put on his back, keeping his arms in tight for safety while waiting for the right moment to explode (usually timing his opposition when they're in transition). Once allowed the smallest of space for momentum, Lewis will force his way to his base, turtling to a tripod position to stand.
As someone who is a fan of this style of get-up, I can tell you that it can be a nightmare to encounter when executed properly. For example, Lewis – while keeping his base firmly beneath him – will maintain an angle on his back that resembles a steep ski slope.
Although this tripod position invites back-takes to the naked eye, the downward slope Lewis keeps serves as a trap, making eager back takers ultimately slide forward and lose position (all while allowing the Texas native to stand back up). And if Lewis is able to end up on top via swimming for underhooks and shucking, then we could see a drastic shift in this matchup's momentum given the hellfire of ground-and-pound he provides.
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the undefeated fighter, listing Teixeira -245 and Lewis +186 via FanDuel.
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira prediction, pick
Considering how high the MMA gambling world gets over youthful, undefeated products, I can't say that I'm surprised to see Teixeira installed as the betting favorite despite being relatively unproven.
Should Teixeira come out and light Lewis up with some body kicks, then no one should be shocked if the Brazilian can find a finish soon after. That said, Lewis has had a penchant for both countering and coming back from effective body kicks – particularly against taller opponents.
In fact, whenever facing fighters of a similar height to Teixeira, Lewis has traditionally done fairly well (going 3-0 in the UFC opposite the likes of Travis Browne, Alexander Volkov and Jack May). And if Teixeira decides to revert to his base of grappling, then he could find himself in a frying pan-to-frier situation.
Despite logic saying that Lewis should be beatable on the ground, only a select few fighters (Daniel Cormier, Serghei Spivac and Jailton Almeida) have been able to truly out-grapple the American, as anyone who tries to grapple Lewis has traditionally done poorly.
Should Teixeira fall into this classic trap, then he'll need to be careful not to end up underneath Lewis, which is almost a death sentence given his lethal ground striking. I ultimately suspect that it's a strike off the break that sparks things off for Lewis, likely after having to survive some scares first.
The pick is Lewis by knockout in Round 2.
Prediction: Lewis inside the distance
Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira start time, how to watch
As the main event, Lewis and Teixeira are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.