Global M&A powered by larger deals in first half; bankers show appetite for megadeals
NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Mergers and acquisitions during the first half of this year were not what investment bankers had hoped for, but a burst of big deals in Asia and renewed optimism in U.S. markets could be paving the way for megadeals.
Market uncertainties stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, high interest rates and broader geopolitical tensions hampered — but did not completely derail — what bankers expected to be a blockbuster year for global M&A, dealmakers say.
Trump's tariff policies, kicked off by his self-styled "Liberation Day" on April 2, cast a chill over the markets and pushed several deals and initial public offerings into subsequent quarters.
"The expectation was we would see a lot of deal activity in the first half of 2025, and the reality is we didn't see it," said Tommy Rueger, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS, which Dealogic ranked No. 9 in equity capital markets revenue, according to preliminary data from January 1 through June 27.
Interviews with more than a dozen top bankers signal growing confidence that the worst of the market turbulence is over. Fresh record closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have helped renew optimism that M&A in the second half of the year will be even stronger, dealmakers say.
"There were a lot of deals that were put on hold that will come back," said Ivan Farman, co-head of global M&A at Bank of America, which was ranked No. 3 in overall investment banking revenue and No. 5 for M&A in Dealogic's year-to-date rankings. "I'm optimistic about the second half."
There is reason for optimism, dealmakers say, with the recovery in the markets and Trump's easier antitrust policies paving the way for bigger deals. "The probability of very large transactions, perhaps $50 billion-plus, has increased versus a year ago," said John Collins, global co-head of Mergers & Acquisitions at Morgan Stanley, which was ranked No. 4 in overall fee revenue among investment banks and No. 3 for M&A deals.
Some $2.14 trillion in deals were signed from January 1 through June 27, up 26% from the same period last year. Part of that increase, however, came from Asia, where activity more than doubled to $583.9 billion.
Deal activity in North America rose to $1.04 trillion from January 1 through June 27, up 17% from the first half last year, according to preliminary data from Dealogic.
Market volatility, as measured by the VIX index (.VIX), opens new tab, has dropped to levels that indicate investors feel safer to invest today.
"It's been clear that momentum continues to build, paving the way for larger transactions. People are feeling more positive than they were a month ago and starting to implement their decisions," said Philip Ross, vice chairman of Jefferies bank.
As the markets calm down, institutional investors are starting to jump back in to equities and more companies are moving forward with IPO plans that had been postponed earlier this quarter. 'The combination of all of those together has created, over the last three to four weeks, an incredibly strong new issue backdrop and we've seen a significant uptick in activity," Rueger said.
Saadi Soudavar, head of equity capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Deutsche Bank, added: "Equity markets have shown a remarkable ability to shrug off a lot of the tariff and geopolitical related volatility."
A few big deals helped boost market morale at the height of tariff turmoil, including Global Payments' $24.25 billion acquisition of a card processing and account services firm in April.
Charter Communications (CHTR.O), opens new tabin May agreed to buy privately held rival Cox Communications for $21.9 billion. And U.S.-based equipment manufacturer Chart Industries GTLS.N and Flowserve Corp (FLS.N), opens new tab agreed to merge, valuing the combined company at about $19 billion.
There were 17,528 deals signed during the first half of this year, compared with 20,583 deals in the same period last year, according to Dealogic. But this year's deals were bigger in size, pushing the total value of deals higher. There was a 62% increase in the number of $10 billion-plus deals versus the same period last year, the data shows.
Dealmaking in Asia was a bright spot. Overall M&A activity rose to $583.9 billion in the first six months, up from $269.9 billion a year ago.
Led by Japan and China, the region accounted for 27.3% of the global M&A activity, gaining more than 11 percentage points from the same period last year.
Some of the region's biggest deals were kept within the Asia-Pacific region. Toyota Motor (7203.T), opens new tab announced plans on June 3 to take one of its suppliers private for $33 billion. On June 16, a consortium led by Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC) launched an $18.7 billion all-cash takeover of Australia's second-largest oil producer Santos (STO.AX), opens new tab.
Asia also helped drive global equity issuance higher despite the market volatility, with overall volume rising nearly 8% to $350 billion from the same period last year.
"You will see more Asia-to-Asia activity," said Raghav Maliah, global vice chairman of investment banking at Goldman Sachs, which was ranked No. 2 in overall investment banking fees and No. 1 in M&A revenue. "Japan has been a big driver in all the deal volumes (in Asia) and we do believe that trend will continue."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Finextra
19 minutes ago
- Finextra
Moneythor debuts AI suite
Singapore-based Moneythor, the world-leading personalisation platform for banks, today announced the launch of its AI Suite, to enable banks to build deeper and profitable relationships with their customers. 0 The suite enables banks to leverage the full potential of their data to deliver experiences which resemble those of popular technology and media apps in terms of personalisation, proactivity and engagement - a challenge which many of the region's banks are currently struggling to deliver in practice. According to global research from Fintech Futures amongst banking and fintech decision-makers across the globe, only 23% of financial institutions would describe their acquisition approaches successful, nearly half (49%) admit that their current technology solutions are unable to provide engagement post onboarding, while a staggering 15% of newly acquired customers drop-off after the first 3 months. Martin Frick, Moneythor's CEO, explains that Moneythor's new AI suite will squarely address the challenges facing banks to deliver deeper customer engagement. 'Specific, built-for-purpose AI is fundamental to the delivery of deep banking experiences; namely, hyper-personalisation, anticipation, and a proposition that extends beyond traditional financial offerings. And with respect to the latter, the opportunity is particularly compelling. Banks are, literally, at the intersection of people's daily lives; whether around routine transactions or once-in-a-lifetime ones. Each provides an opportunity to connect with an additional service, or a complementary brand . . . . even beyond the finance space.' 'Moneythor has been applying technologies such as big data, machine learning and AI to support the delivery of more personalised, predictive banking experiences for more than 13 years. Our new AI suite builds upon this 'muscle memory' with the addition of generative, conversational and agentic AI capabilities.' adds Martin Specifically, Moneythor's AI suite will enable banks to intuitively develop, test, deploy and adapt personalised customer content and recommendations, 'on the fly' by integrating with any (or multiple) Large Language Models (LLM), without the requirement to train each one separately. Resulting campaigns are not only deeply personalised, but self-adapting - thanks to the incorporation of Agentic AI - enabling them to adjust and respond to individual customer situations in real time. Moneythor's clients in South East Asia include Standard Chartered, DBS, Trust Bank, and RHB Bank. Martin goes on to explain that, in markets such as Singapore (and others) where the typical customer holds multiple bank accounts, the delivery of deep banking now represents a vital differentiator. 'In Singapore, for instance, the average citizen holds nearly 2.5 separate bank accounts. This reality presents a distinct challenge to financial service providers to ensure that the client remains fully aware of and engaged in their offering. Our own research confirms, for instance, that 15% of newly opened accounts remain dormant after the first 3 months, while 'strengthening digital engagement' represents one of the sector's biggest challenges,' he says. 'The launch of our AI suite is a direct and practical response to this reality, enabling banks to rapidly transform their customer experience into something that resembles the type of consumer or lifestyle app that they are familiar and comfortable with. This is the promise of deep banking. While few would question its potential, our AI suite can make deep banking a reality, at a time when customer expectations have never been higher.'
Reuters
22 minutes ago
- Reuters
Senate Republicans try to get Trump's tax cuts over the line, setting aside cost concerns
WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Senate Republicans on Monday will try to pass President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, despite divisions within the party about its expected $3.3 trillion hit to the nation's debt pile. They were set for a marathon session in which the minority Democrats are allowed to offer an unlimited number of votes, part of the arcane process Republicans are using to bypass Senate rules that normally require 60 of the chamber's 100 members to agree on legislation. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its assessment on Sunday of the bill's hit to the $36.2 trillion debt, figuring that it would add about $800 billion more than the version passed last month in the House of Representatives. Many Republicans dispute that claim, contending that extending existing policy will not add to the debt. Nonetheless, international bond investors see incentives to diversify out of the U.S. Treasury market. Democrats, meanwhile, hope the latest, eye-widening figure could stoke enough anxiety among fiscally minded conservatives to get them to buck their party, which controls both chambers of Congress. 'Republicans are doing something the Senate has never, never done before, deploying fake math and accounting gimmicks to hide the true cost of the bill," Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Sunday. "Republicans are about to pass the single most expensive bill in U.S. history to give tax breaks to billionaires while taking away Medicaid, SNAP benefits and good-paying jobs for millions of people." The Senate narrowly advanced the tax-cut, immigration, border and military spending bill in a procedural vote late on Saturday, voting 51-49 to open debate on the 940-page megabill. One powerful illustration of the Republican divide came on Sunday when Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina said he would not seek re-election, after Trump threatened to back a challenger to him in next year's midterm elections over his vote against the bill. Trump on social media has hailed the progress as a "great victory" for his "great, big, beautiful bill." In a separate post on Sunday, he said: "We will make it all up, times 10, with GROWTH, more than ever before." Trump wants the bill passed before the July 4 Independence Day holiday. While that deadline is one of choice, lawmakers will face a far more serious deadline later this summer when they must raise the nation's self-imposed debt ceiling or risk a devastating default. If the Senate succeeds in passing the bill, it will then go to the House, where members are also divided, with some angry about its cost and others worried about cuts to the Medicaid program. Republicans can afford to lose no more than three votes in either chamber to pass a bill the Democrats are united in opposition to. The legislation was the sole focus of a marathon weekend congressional session marked by political drama, division and lengthy delays as Democrats seek to slow the legislation's path to passage. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, the other Republican "no" vote, opposed the legislation because it would raise the federal borrowing limit by an additional $5 trillion. The megabill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that were Trump's main legislative achievement during his first term as president, cut other taxes and boost spending on the military and border security. Senate Republicans, who reject the CBO's estimates on the cost of the legislation, are set on using an alternative calculation method that does not factor in costs from extending the 2017 tax cuts. Outside tax experts, like Andrew Lautz from the nonpartisan think tank Bipartisan Policy Center, call it a "magic trick." Using this calculation method, the Senate Republicans' budget bill appears to cost substantially less and seems to save $500 billion, according to the BPC analysis.
The Independent
28 minutes ago
- The Independent
India appeals to Donald Trump for a ‘big, beautiful trade pact'
Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said India would love to have a 'big, beautiful' trade deal with the US, as Washington and New Delhi race to clinch an agreement before the 9 July deadline when punitive tariffs are set to kick in. However, the minister also laid out India's red lines as she expressed hopes for an interim Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) between the two 'strong economies.' Her remarks came after US president Donald Trump last week said a 'very big' deal with India was 'coming up' soon, even though negotiators on both sides appeared to have hit a deadlock over key issues. The US is India's largest trading partner, with the value of their bilateral trade reaching $190bn recently. But after taking office for his second term in January, Mr Trump branded India a "tariff king" and a "big abuser" of trade ties. He has threatened to impose an additional tariff of up to 26 per cent on Indian goods. Although steep, the levy is still lower than the total 104 per cent imposed on China, 49 per cent on Cambodia, and 46 per cent on Vietnam. The additional duties are due to kick back in after a 90-day pause, targeting products like machinery, pearls, mineral fuels, and more. 'I'd love to have an agreement, a big, good, beautiful one; why not?" Ms Sitharam said in an interview with The Financial Express. "The US is one of our leading trade partners, topmost if anything. At the junction we are in, and given our growth goals and ambition to reach Viksit Bharat [developed India] by 2047, the sooner we have such agreements with strong economies, the better they will serve us. So, I'd rather put my own statement on (Trump's)," she added. She nonetheless noted that protecting India's agriculture and dairy industries have been among the 'major red lines' in the BTA talks with the US. "The negotiating team ensured that the industry's concerns were all taken on board before they sat at the table. Agriculture and dairy have been among the very big red lines, where a high degree of caution has been exercised," she said in the interview. The finance minister pushed back against Mr Trump's accusations that India was a 'tariff king', saying the label is 'unjustified' and that India's tariffs against the US were modest and within the World Trade Organisation 's guidelines. "We have only eight duties, inclusive of zero tariffs. There have been drastic cuts in both the July and February budgets. The effective tariff rates are far below the WTO thresholds. So, for India to be called a 'tariff king' is absolutely unjustified," she said. A major sticking point in the India–US trade deal is agriculture, where deep structural differences persist. The US wants greater access for its big-ticket farm exports like wheat, corn, cotton, and genetically modified (GM) crops to narrow its trade deficit, but India has resisted, citing the need to protect food security and the livelihoods of millions of small farmers. Unlike the US, where large-scale, heavily subsidised farming is the norm, India's agriculture is dominated by small landholdings and low productivity. High tariffs – up to 150 per cent – are used by India to shield its farmers from cheaper imports. The US argues these barriers are unfair, while India sees them as essential for survival. After Mr Trump unveiled his Liberation Day tariffs, India acted swiftly by reducing tariffs on select US goods, including motorcycles and whiskey, and offered concessions in the agricultural and defence sectors in an effort to ease tensions with Washington. The two countries have engaged in a series of high-level negotiations aimed at finalising a trade deal before the full impact of Trump's new tariffs takes effect. But progress has been slowed by political sensitivities in India, particularly around the farming and auto industries, which remain key domestic concerns. According to Bloomberg, Indian negotiators in Washington have extended their stay to resolve these differences and reach a deal before the deadline. People familiar with the matter said the negotiations that were supposed to run until 27 June were extended by a day, raising hopes of a timely trade deal.
