Are St Johnstone doomed as trap door edges closer?
In the most surreal of surroundings for such a momentous occasion, Callum Davidson punched the air with his right fist.Just yards away, five of his players crashed to their knees in exhaustion and disbelief, the undreamable playing out in front of nobody at a barren Hampden Park.Saturday, 22 May 2021 was the day St Johnstone Football Club probably peaked in its then 137-year history. Their first ever League Cup secured earlier that season, now the Scottish Cup was in the bag. Heroes.For all that was the highest of highs for the Perth club, a troublesome four years since has led them to the brink of relegation, a fate which could be sealed tomorrow if defeated by Ross County.Is it an inevitability? Or do this season's long-term strugglers still have a hope?
The present - alarm bells deafening
The facts facing St Johnstone and manager Simo Valakari make for grim reading. Currently bottom of the Scottish Premiership by six points with nine left to play for, really only a win on Saturday at home to 11th-placed County is going to do.Valakari's team have lost their past four on the spin. They've also only won twice in the league in the past three months, bizarrely most recently against champions Celtic in a rare rally.However, a stall in form is nothing new. St Johnstone have been in the bottom two in the league this season for 160 days, first entering that drop zone seven games in.And glancing further afield, if Dundee avoid defeat at Kilmarnock, realistically 11th is the best St Johnstone can hope for even if they win the relegation rumble against County.
The history - cause for hope or panic?
So St Johnstone have toiled for large swathes of this season. That much isn't really in question. But they're not the first and they certainly won't be the last side to stumble their way into trouble at the wrong end of the table.Since 1999, the team who were bottom of the table with three games to go have only escaped relegation five times, and two of those seasons were because there were no relegated teams at all.In 2005, Dunfermline Athletic overturned a three-point deficit as Dundee went down. Four years later, Falkirk clawed back a four-point gap to actually finish two places above the drop with Inverness Caledonian Thistle dropping out.And in 2014, Kilmarnock finished ninth after being bottom with three games to play, albeit they were just a point adrift of a hat-trick of sides.And while St Johnstone's points tally of 29 with three to play is relatively high for a bottom-placed team, those in and around them are also above average.You can probably put this down to bigger teams dropping more points. Rangers have spilled points in 15 games, Hibernian and Aberdeen doing the same in 20 of them.The main glimmer of hope lies in St Johnstone's nearest rivals. Already this season, they've taken seven points from nine against County, and also four against Dundee, who they face in the final game. There's also a swingable goal difference at play.There's been three narrow 2-1 defeats to Wednesday's opponents Hearts, but timing may be on their side with the Tynecastle club hunting for a new manager.
The reality - 'No one is safe'
Brian McLauchlin, BBC Sport ScotlandSt Johnstone boss Simo Valakari says his job is on the line at the club should they be relegated from the Premiership into the Championship for next season.Valkari says he is in the same situation as everyone else at the club, and insists it would be a huge financial blow should their 16-year stay in the top flight comes to an end."Yes, everyone's job, of course, yes, of course [including my own]," he said."We know how football works and there is no hiding. We can talk about this and this and this, but everyone is on the same boat. No one, no one is safe."Of course we chat [with the owners] every week. We chat many times during the week. They are not happy with the results, who would be?"They understand the circumstances, they see behind the results as well, which is very, very important when you talk about the process."
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