Final MLB Mock Draft 2025: Kade Anderson still at 1; where will Ethan Holliday land?

New York Times

12-07-2025

This is my 'final' draft mock for 2025, with the scare quotes there because I'll update this over the next 24 hours if I hear anything relevant to any of these picks.
The true first round is 27 picks, but in this mock I go down through pick 30 as I've heard a few more rumors on the teams drafting in the compensation round. As always, I draw on what I hear from industry sources and my own understanding of what certain teams value in the draft to assemble this projection. My own opinions and evaluations of players do not factor into it. Where I'm truly just speculating, I note it.
For full scouting reports on these players, check out my Big Board, ranking the top 100 players in the draft class.
I'm leaving Anderson here, because ultimately I think the Nats will pick the player with the best balance of probability and upside, but I have heard that Eli Willits is much more in the mix at pick 1 than I'd thought before — and that several other teams have Willits at No. 1 in their draft models, probably because he's the youngest player in the class. If it's not either of those two, I think it'll be Aiva Arquette. Ethan Holliday doesn't seem as likely today.
I believe it's Hernandez, Liam Doyle or Kade Anderson here, with an outside chance it's Jamie Arnold. Everyone seems to think the Angels are taking a pitcher, although I heard they met with Eli Willits again in the past few days.
My sense is that Arquette is second on Seattle's board, after Kade Anderson. I don't think they'd take Liam Doyle. If Arquette and Anderson are gone, they could go Eli Willits, or maybe try to do a deal with someone further down, possibly with a college guy like Ike Irish.
The rumor has been that the Rockies would even consider going over slot to get Holliday, which I understand since I have him as the top prospect in the class. If he's not here, I believe they'd go college pitching — Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle or Jamie Arnold.
I'm assuming Kade Anderson and Ethan Holliday are gone here no matter what, in which case my guess is they take Willits over Kyson Witherspoon.
I've heard recently that the Pirates are more inclined to go college than high school. That could mean Doyle, Jamie Arnold or Ike Irish. If Seth Hernandez gets here, the Pirates are a possibility.
The Marlins are one of the only teams in the top 10 I've heard primarily on high schoolers all spring, mostly the shortstop group with Eli Willits, Carlson and JoJo Parker, along with right-hander Seth Hernandez.
It's shortstops or college pitching here. I believe they'd take Liam Doyle or Kyson Witherspoon but not Jamie Arnold. I've had them with Billy Carlson in previous mocks and still think they'd do that, and I believe the Jays are Eli Willits' absolute floor.
The Reds are the opportunists of the top 10 — as far as I can tell they're the most flexible and are looking to see who might fall to them. I don't have them limited to any player type, although I haven't heard them on any high school arms (even Seth Hernandez, but maybe they just think he's long gone by pick nine).
I've heard the White Sox on Arnold, Liam Doyle, Steele Hall, Kruz Schoolcraft and JoJo Parker. I worry that the Arnold/Doyle rumors are just because everyone assumes the White Sox will take any good lefty with a funky delivery.
Hall to the Athletics seems likely at this point — Hall is going in this range and he's on the A's short list. I've also heard the A's several times with Tyler Bremner, and more recently with Luke Stevenson. They have also been connected with Wehiwa Aloy.
I think the Rangers are JoJo Parker's floor, or maybe Steele Hall's floor, but they can't be both because they have only one floor to give. I've also heard them with Daniel Pierce, so it seems like they're on the high school shortstop train.
I've had the Giants with Bremner in almost every mock, but I don't think it's some mortal lock that they take him — it's just the most plausible scenario here almost no matter what I do ahead of them. This is also the area of the draft where the second tier of college bats — Gavin Kilen, Marek Houston and perhaps Jace LaViolette — comes into play.
This is more based on my understanding of the Rays' draft model than specific rumors; the only firm thing I've heard is that the Rays are much more likely to go college than high school. I've heard the Rays with Cooper Flemming a few times, but that could be for pick 42. I know they're interested in JoJo Parker, who I don't think has any chance to get here.
I don't think the Red Sox are anti-pitching — like some teams — but with their first pick they appear more likely to go hitter than pitcher, and more likely to go college than high school. I wonder if they'd consider high schooler Gavin Fien, however, since his batted-ball data was among the best from the showcases last year. (I mean, I'd take him here, but it's not my pick.)
Witherspoon could go anywhere from No. 5 to the late teens, which isn't a reflection on his ability but on the broad disagreements scouts and teams have on how to rank players beyond the top three or four. I've heard the Twins on several of the main high school shortstops, including Daniel Pierce, and I would imagine (without specific intel) that they'd be on Marek Houston.
This pick is going to be whoever the draft model selects — although, to be fair to the model's feelings, its past few first-round picks all look pretty good right now. I think this run from 15-19 or so has teams on very similar players, primarily hitters with excellent batted-ball characteristics and good swings.
Bodine could also be their target at pick 29, which they received for losing Christian Walker in free agency. I've heard them with Slater de Brun and Kayson Cunningham as well.
The Orioles traded for an extra pick on Thursday, giving them the largest bonus pool and four of the top 37 selections. There's been a ton of speculation on who they might be trying to 'buy down,' or if they're trying to sign someone seen as unsignable (Alec Blair? Sean Gamble?). I could see them trying to get three players they considered at 19 — so maybe Neyens, Jace LaViolette and one of a handful of others I'll talk about at pick 30, promising one of them a first-round bonus if they get to picks 30-31.
More of a best-player-available guess here than any specific intel. The Brewers do typically value players with strong batted-ball data, but not always. They had one of the two most surprising picks in the first round last year when they took the young Texas high school outfielder Braylon Payne; if they were to go that route, that could mean Quentin Young or Jaden Fauske, but I'm just spitballing.
I believe the Astros will take a college hitter here, which, if true, would mean LaViolette, Marek Houston, or maybe Charles Davalan or Mason Neville. I haven't heard them with any of the college catchers (Caden Bodine, Luke Stevenson).
I've also heard them with Gage Wood a few times, but I don't know if Wood is going in the first round given the shoulder injury that cost him about six weeks earlier this spring.
I've written previously that the Royals are Steele Hall's floor, and I think Schoolcraft may be their top choice. They pick again at 28 and could try to float someone down a few picks and go under slot here, maybe for one of the next tier of college arms.
It would make sense for the Tigers to change gears and take a college player — Riley Quick? — who'll help the big-league club sooner, now that they're contending again, but Mark Conner has thrived when he's used high picks on high-ceiling prep players. I threw Sean Gamble's name out there in the last mock for similar reasons.
If Kruz Schoolcraft got here, I think they'd take him, but if they're on another high school arm for this pick (Angel Cervantes?) I'm not aware of it.
If any team would just say 'screw it' and take Wood despite the medicals, it's probably the Phillies.
I speculated on Anthony Eyanson going here in my last mock, and that remains plausible. I have to think Gavin Fien stops here in the unlikely event he falls that far.
I've heard the Royals like Lombardi, who definitely fits some of the things they like in players (especially as a very athletic, two-way guy), and I don't think he gets to their next pick at 61.
I've also heard the Diamondbacks with Ryan Mitchell here.
The Orioles pick at 30 and 31, then again at 37. They have enough money to pay pretty much anyone they want in the draft. Young, Alec Blair, Jaden Fauske, Ethan Conrad (who was heading for the first round before shoulder surgery), even Uli Fernsler could all be in play if they want, although I have only had people link the Orioles to the first two. Conrad just makes too much sense. Maybe Cam Cannarella should be in this list, for similar reasons (he didn't look like himself all spring after shoulder surgery).
One additional note — I have heard the Los Angeles Dodgers particularly want Louisville right-hander Patrick Forbes, if he should get to their picks at 40-41.
(Photo Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Mike Janes, Danny Parker / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)