Insight 2025/2026 - Thailand's Political Turmoil
Insight 2025/2026
A leaked phone call has led to the suspension of Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. What will this period of political uncertainty mean for Thailand?
Insight 2025/2026
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CNA
14 minutes ago
- CNA
Commentary: Trump's call didn't stop the fighting in Thailand and Cambodia. Can Malaysia do better?
SINGAPORE: In a few hours, Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet will sit down for peace talks in Malaysia, amid an escalating border conflict that has killed at least 30 people and displaced thousands more. The visit to Kuala Lumpur on Monday (Jul 28) by the leaders will offer the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) a chance to preserve its treasured centrality and demonstrate a capacity to solve its problems on its own rather than under external intervention or pressure. It also offers current ASEAN chair, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, an opportunity to create a legacy. This is something that has thus far eluded him, and ASEAN in the other major crisis it faces – Myanmar's seemingly intractable and ongoing civil war. The scheduled talks follow a characteristically unilateral announcement on Saturday by United States President Donald Trump claiming both countries had agreed to work out a ceasefire after he threatened to cease trade talks if the fighting did not stop soon. Cambodia had already proposed a ceasefire, but Thailand – after the call from Mr Trump – said while it agreed in principle with a ceasefire, the onus was on Cambodia to stand down. Mr Trump's announcement did not seem to have any effect. There was no sign of de-escalation. Within hours of a brief pause, Thailand and Cambodia were exchanging rocket and gun fire again, possibly with each intent on gaining advantage on the ground ahead of a truce so that a clear win could be presented domestically. A WINDOW FOR ASEAN Speculation on the origins of the conflict ranges from bad blood over business and economic interests – from casinos to scam centres – to personal falling out between the Hun and Shinawatra families; to domestic agendas to prop up wobbly political parties and mandates; and even superpower rivalry between the US, an ally of Thailand, and China which has significant economic interests in Cambodia. Premier Hun Manet's father Hun Sen – now President of the country's Senate and viewed as the de facto leader of Cambodia – may indeed feel he has greater strategic space with China's backing, given China's interests in Cambodia. But while there may be some element of truth in that, it risks falling into the trap of seeing the conflict through an American, China-centric prism. China took pains last week to say the weaponry Cambodia was using was old stock supplied not recently but previously by Beijing. In fact, any definitive explanation without real evidence is suspect; the origins of the conflict remain opaque and likely only really known to a relatively small circle of power elites in both capitals. Regardless, neither country wants to be seen domestically to bending to external pressure. This offers a thus far ineffective ASEAN response new traction. Conversely, the opportunity puts pressure on Mr Anwar, who may be seen as somewhat compromised by his decision earlier this year to appoint former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an adviser – even if one of several – to the ASEAN chair he holds. Thus while the meeting offers hope, underlying complexities should not be underestimated. The proximate and historical causes of the conflict may be many, and significantly intertwined, but what is evident and indisputable is that what tipped a volatile situation over the edge was a falling out between old friends Mr Hun Sen and Mr Thaksin. The latter's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra – who became prime minister only last August – has been suspended pending an ethics investigation over her leaked phone call with Mr Hun Sen, throwing Thailand's civilian coalition government into some disarray and giving its military an opportunity to wave its nationalist credentials. 'Failure to secure a meaningful and lasting ceasefire could severely damage ASEAN's credibility as a regional problem-solver, especially given past criticisms of its effectiveness in other regional crises,' Professor Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University's Centre for Southeast Asian Studies told me. THE LIMITS OF MEDIATION The meeting signals a step towards de-escalation, but it doesn't magically resolve the deep-seated territorial disputes, nationalistic sentiments and historical grievances that fuelled this conflict, Professor Pavin added. 'The true test will be whether it leads to genuine, sustained efforts to address the root causes, or merely provides a temporary pause in hostilities.' That the conflict so easily ignited historical grievances underscores its unfinished nature. A particularly disturbing aspect – mirroring the India-Pakistan crisis in May – is the jingoism that has reached such levels, even in the local media, that it has prompted some civil society organisations to speak out. Thailand's Assembly of the Poor for instance, last week said: 'We resist the ultra-patriotism and militarism that makes states turn their back on people, while manipulating fear, hatred and loss as their political instruments.' Securing a ceasefire may be the easiest part of Monday's meeting. The more difficult aspects will however have to be addressed by political-military elites in Cambodia and Thailand, to avoid a repetition of a cycle that, with tourism and investor confidence plunging, both countries can ill afford.
CNA
2 hours ago
- CNA
Powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim rejects outreach by South's new president
SEOUL: North Korea has no interest in any policy or proposals for reconciliation from South Korea, the powerful sister of its leader Kim Jong Un said on Monday (Jul 28) in the first response to South Korean liberal President Lee Jae-myung's peace overtures. Kim Yo Jong, who is a senior North Korean ruling party official and is believed to speak for the country's leader, said Lee's pledge of commitment to South Korea-United States security alliance shows he is no different from his hostile predecessor. "If South Korea expects to reverse all the consequences of (its actions) with a few sentimental words, there could be no greater miscalculation than that," Kim said in comments carried by official KCNA news agency. Lee, who took office on Jun 4 after winning a snap election called after the removal of hardline conservative Yoon Suk Yeol over a failed attempt at martial law, has vowed to improve ties with Pyongyang that had reached the worst level in years. As gestures aimed at easing tensions, Lee suspended loudspeaker broadcasts blasting anti-North propaganda across the border and banned the flying of leaflets by activists that had angered Pyongyang. Kim, the North Korean official, said those moves are merely a reversal of ill-intentioned activities by South Korea that should never have been initiated in the first place. "In other words, it's not even something worth our assessment," she said. "We again make clear the official position that whatever policy is established in Seoul or proposal is made, we are not interested, and we will not be sitting down with South Korea and there is nothing to discuss." South Korea's Unification Ministry said Kim Yo Jong's comments "show the wall of distrust between the South and the North is very high as a result of hostile and confrontational policy over the past few years". South Korea will continue to make efforts for reconciliation and cooperation with the North, ministry spokesperson Koo Byoung-sam told a briefing. There has been cautious optimism in the South that the North may respond positively and may even show willingness to re-engage in dialogue, particularly after Pyongyang also shut off its loudspeakers, a move Lee said was quicker than expected. Still, Lee, whose government is in the midst of tough negotiations with Washington to avert punishing tariffs that US President Donald Trump has threatened against a string of major trading partners, has said a US alliance is the pillar of South Korea's diplomacy. Lee said on the anniversary of the Korean War armistice on Sunday Seoul would make efforts in all areas to "strengthen the South Korea-US alliance that was sealed in blood". North Korea also marked the anniversary which it calls victory day with events including a parade in Pyongyang, although state media reports indicated it was at a relatively lesser scale compared to some previous years. Columns of soldiers marched holding portraits of commanders, including state founder Kim Il Sun,g with spectators and frail veterans in historic army uniforms in attendance in state media photos, which did not show major weapons as part of the parade. A formation of military jets flew over the Pyongyang Gymnasium square in the night sky, trailing streaks of flares and fireworks. State media made no mention of leader Kim Jong Un's attendance.
CNA
3 hours ago
- CNA
US officials in Malaysia to help in Cambodia-Thailand talks, says Rubio
WASHINGTON: United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said State Department officials are in Malaysia to assist peace efforts, with Cambodia and Thailand scheduled to begin talks on Monday (Jul 28) in hopes of a ceasefire. President Donald Trump and Rubio were engaged with their counterparts for each country and were monitoring the situation very closely, Rubio said in a statement released by the State Department late on Sunday in the US. "We want this conflict to end as soon as possible," he said. "State Department officials are on the ground in Malaysia to assist these peace efforts." The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia were scheduled to attend mediation talks over their deadly border conflict in Malaysia on Monday, the Thai government said, as both sides accused each other of launching fresh artillery strikes across contested areas. Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have intensified since the late-May killing of a Cambodian soldier during a brief border skirmish. Border troops on both sides were reinforced amid a full-blown diplomatic crisis that brought Thailand's fragile coalition government to the brink of collapse. Hostilities resumed on Thursday and, within just four days, escalated into the worst fighting between the Southeast Asian neighbours in more than a decade. The death toll has risen above 30, including 13 civilians in Thailand and eight in Cambodia, while authorities report that more than 200,000 people have been evacuated from border areas. Rubio, in separate phone calls on Sunday with Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn and Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa, urged both countries to "de-escalate tensions immediately" and agree to a ceasefire with each other, a US State Department spokesperson said in a statement. Rubio also reiterated US President Trump's desire for peace and the importance of an immediate ceasefire. "The United States is prepared to facilitate future discussions in order to ensure peace and stability between Thailand and Cambodia."
