Why the numbers show promise for Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.
Even though he just started in three games last season, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix flashed some pretty brilliant stretches of play to close out the 2024 NFL season.
Still one of the more polarizing NFL quarterbacks in recent memory, some people choose to focus on Penix's elite arm talent and ability to make throws all over the field while others choose to focus on his accuracy issues and lack of mobility. Your opinions of Penix are probably strong, and the film probably confirms your priors.All of those talking points expectedly popped up in his rookie starts, but this excellent chart from Underdog's Hayden Winks shows where the analytics support Penix's chances of being a real force at the position.
Winks tracked all the NFL's 2024 starting quarterbacks and removed reps involving screens, run-play options, spikes and unblocked pressures in his chart. Among his fellow quarterbacks, Penix shined in his three-game sample with his Pro Football Focus scores, his yards per pass attempt, his sack rate, his big-time throw rate and his turnover-worthy play rate.
Penix's scramble rate was predictably low since he's an inherent pocket passer, while his first-read rate on his passes were about in the league average and on par with many of his fellow rookies.
QB stats removing screens, RPOs, spikes, and unblocked pressures. I highlighted the rookies. pic.twitter.com/gSQGf5ogLU
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 28, 2025
Penix's big-time throw rate is particularly eye-popping, as he stacked up with players like Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in being able to generate big-time throws with their arm.
Of course, Richardson has struggled throughout his tenure in Indianapolis, a more agile quarterback with his legs but one who has struggled with his health, turning the ball over and general consistency. Penix's floor is probably a less agile Richardson, but he flashed big-play ability on par with Allen and Jackson last year, too.
Penix's ability to generate big plays with his arm, his ability to gain meaningful yards per pass, his ability to avoid sacks and his ability to not turn the ball over will be critical as he tries to build on his rookie success.
It's important to underscore, again, this was a three-game sample for Penix, and all of those games came against non-elite defenses in the New York Giants, the Washington Commanders and the Carolina Panthers. However, any rookie quarterback putting up these analytics in their first three starts against any NFL opponents should offer some encouragement.
Penix staying healthy, learning to vary the pass touch on his howitzer of an arm, building a chemistry with his Falcons receivers and sanding down his general accuracy concerns will be critical to his 2025 success, but it's well within the realm of possibility that he'll continue to improve on his flaws and heighten his strengths. Developing more chemistry with Atlanta's receiving corps is basically a given now that Penix is entrenched as the full-time starter.
Sure, the numbers may balance out just a bit for Penix next year once he faces stiffer competition and goes through the complex rigors of his first full starting season in the NFL. However, some of what he flashed in his first season cannot be taught or developed. It's just pure ability, something Penix seems to have in bulk.
If you're a Falcons fan, you've got plenty reason for optimism about Penix's future in the NFL. While the NFL has only seen a small sample size of what he can do, the numbers look pretty promising.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Why the numbers show promise for Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.
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