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Gold heads for weekly fall as fewer Fed rate cut prospects weigh

Gold heads for weekly fall as fewer Fed rate cut prospects weigh

Reuters6 hours ago

June 20 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline, as an overall stronger dollar and the prospect of fewer U.S. interest rate cuts offset support from rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $3,355.49 an ounce, as of 0245 GMT, and was down 2.2% for the week so far.
U.S. gold futures shed 1% to $3,371.80.
"Right now there's a lot of fluid situation in the Middle East that causes traders not to take any aggressive position both on the long side and the short side of the trades of the spectrum," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA.
The conflict in the Middle East intensified on Thursday when Israel bombed Iran's nuclear sites, while Iran fired missile and drone strikes on Israel, including an overnight attack on an Israeli hospital. Neither side has signalled an exit strategy.
President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, the White House said on Thursday, raising pressure on Tehran to come to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying the rates should be 2.5 percentage points lower.
The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, and policymakers retained projections for two quarter-point rate cuts this year.
"Macroeconomic developments, particularly steady yields and renewed USD strength, have not supported the (gold) price," analysts at ANZ said in a note.
"Rising inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious stance have weighed on market expectations around the number of rate cuts this year."
The dollar was set to log its biggest weekly rise in over a month on Friday. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for other currency holders.
Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.6% to $35.82 per ounce, while palladium fell 0.7% to $1,042.92. Platinum fell 1.5% to $1,287.47, but was heading for its third straight weekly rise.

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Pro-Israel hackers steal $90M from Iranian exchange: report
Pro-Israel hackers steal $90M from Iranian exchange: report

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Pro-Israel hackers steal $90M from Iranian exchange: report

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... A pro-Israel hacking collective has made off with $90 million worth of digital assets in a hack on Nobitex, an Iranian exchange. The group, known as Gonjeshke Darande (which is Farsi for 'Predatory Sparrow'), took responsibility for the attack in posts on X. The group followed up by releasing Nobitex's source code and warning that all assets remaining with the exchange were at risk. 'The Nobitex exchange is at the heart of the regime's efforts to finance terror around the world,' claimed Gonjeshke Darande in an X post. 'Nobitex does not even hide the fact that it circumvents sanctions, but rather explicitly teaches this on its website. The regime's dependence on this exchange is so great that working at Nobitex is considered an alternative to military service, as this channel is vital to the regime.' According to the group, the trove includes $48.7 million in USDT, $6.7 million in Dogecoin, and $1.9 million in BTC. Notably, the group claimed it had 'burned' the stolen funds by sending them to addresses with no known keys, effectively destroying the hoard. Blockchain investigator Elliptic corroborates this, finding funds began flowing from Nobitex to addresses containing variations of the term 'F*ckIRGCTerrorists' on the morning of the attack. Earlier this week, the group took responsibility for another hack that destroyed data at Iran's state-owned bank Sepah, saying that it was an institution that 'circumvented international sanctions and used the people of Iran's money to finance the regime's terrorist proxies, its ballistic missile program and its military nuclear program.' However, the group has a longer history of targeting Iran. An attack in 2023 apparently shut down 70% of the gas stations in Iran. In 2022, they claimed credit for a fire that broke out in an Iranian steel mill in a rare instance of physical damage resulting directly from a hacking attack. Gonjeshke Darande's claims about Nobitex are hardly controversial. Next to North Korea, the country is regularly named in the context of digital assets' role in helping states blunt or avoid international sanctions. A series of reports from Reuters in 2022 accused Binance of helping Iranian nationals to make $8 billion worth of digital asset transactions in violation of international sanctions, with most of the funds flowing straight to Nobitex. Iranian officials have openly advocated for using digital assets to get around sanctions, and Western-based companies—including Kraken—have been stung by regulators looking to punish entities who aid in sanctions evasion by processing transactions from Iran. Though the regime's ability to secure financing appears to be the hack's ultimate target, the funds taken from the exchange undoubtedly belonged to many individuals inside and outside Iran who have now lost access to their assets. Indeed, posts on the topic are flooded by ostensibly Iranian X accounts begging for their funds to be returned. Assuming Gonjeshke Darande sent the assets to wallets it had no access to; traditional wisdom would dictate that the funds are lost forever. However, there is growing recognition that individuals might be able to use the courts to force the return of their stolen assets so long as they can prove ownership. Services like Token Recovery have cropped up who make such recovery their business model. Whether anyone with assets held on Nobitex will successfully recover their funds remains to be seen. Given how much of the stolen assets are USD stablecoins, the dollars underlying each one are still held by their issuers, notwithstanding the hackers burning the coins themselves, which may make for an interesting avenue of redress for anyone affected. Watch: Here's how Triple Entry Accounting guarantees trust in accounting title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen="">

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Shipping company Maersk temporarily pauses Haifa port calls

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World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare
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World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare

LONDON, June 20(Reuters) - Brent crude oil is up around 20% so far in June, and set for its biggest monthly jump since 2020 as Israel/Iran tensions flare-up. Although relatively contained, the rise has not gone unnoticed just three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices that ramped up global inflation and sparked aggressive interest rate hikes. Here's a look at what rising oil means for world markets. Oil prices have crept rather than surged higher with investors taking comfort from no noticeable interruption to oil flows. Still, pay attention. The premium of first-month Brent crude futures contract to that for delivery six months later this week rose to a six-month high as investors priced in an increased chance of disruptions to Middle East supply . It remained elevated on Friday. Trading at around $77 a barrel , oil is below 2022's $139 high, but is nearing pain points. "If oil goes into the $80-100 range and stays there, that jeopardizes the global economy," said ABN AMRO Solutions CIO Christophe Boucher. "We are just below that threshold." Traders have an eye on shipping, often seen as a key energy bellwether. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran. Disruption here could push oil above $100, analysts say. Blocked shipping routes would compound any supply shock. Though the big oil producing countries that make up OPEC+ have promised an extra 1.2 million barrels a day, none has yet been shipped or delivered, said hedge fund Svelland Capital director, Nadia Martin Wiggen. Blocked shipping routes would mean this expected supply would not come into the international market, she said. She's watching freight rates closely. "So far, freight rates show that China, with the world's biggest spare refining capability, hasn't started panic buying oil on supply concerns," said Wiggen. "Once China starts to buy, freight rates will rise, and world's energy prices will follow." Rising oil prices raise worries because they can lift near-term inflation and hurt economic growth by squeezing consumption. High oil prices work like a tax, say economists, especially for net energy importers such as Japan and Europe as oil is hard to substitute in the short term. Lombard Odier's chief economist Samy Chaar said that sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel would shave 1% off global economic growth and boost inflation by 1%. Unease rose after Israel launched its strike on Iran a week ago. An initial rally in safe-haven bonds soon evaporated as focus turned to the inflationary impact of higher oil. The euro zone five-year, five-year forward, a closely-watched gauge of market inflation expectations, climbed to its highest level in almost a month . "In the United States $75 oil is enough to, if it's sustained, boost our CPI forecast by about half a percent by the year end, to go from 3 to 3.5%," said RBC chief economist Frances Donald. Turkey, India, Pakistan, Morocco and much of eastern Europe where oil is heavily imported are set to be hit hardest by the rise in crude prices. Those that supply it; Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and to some degree Brazil, Colombia and Mexico should get a boost to their coffers, analysts say. A shift is taking place in the dollar. In recent years the currency has risen when oil rallies, but it has had only limited support from oil's latest rise, with a weekly gain of just 0.4% . Analysts expect the dollar's downward trend to resume, given expectations of limited Middle East risks for now and underlying bearish sentiment. It has weakened around 9% so far this year against other major currencies, hurt by economic uncertainty and concern about the reliability of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner. No doubt, a weaker dollar heals the sting from higher oil, which is priced in dollars. "For oil-importing countries, the dollar's fall offers some relief, easing the impact of soaring oil prices and mitigating wider economic strain," UniCredit said. In the absence of an oil-supply shock, world stocks are happy to stick near all-time highs. "Investors want to look past this until there's a reason to believe this will be a much larger regional conflict," said Osman Ali, Goldman Sach's Asset Management's global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies. Gulf markets sold off on the initial news, then stabilised somewhat, helped by the higher oil prices. U.S. and European energy shares, particularly oil and gas companies have outperformed (.SPNY), opens new tab, (.SXEP), opens new tab, as have defence stocks. (.SXPARO), opens new tab Israeli stocks, (.TA125), opens new tab up 6% in a week, have been the most notable outperformer. Stocks of oil consumers have been the worst hit, airlines stand out.

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