Egypt's cautious rapprochement with Iran

Arab News

2 days ago

https://arab.news/yjzpn
Egypt-Iran relations are undergoing a notable transformation after decades of tension and estrangement. Regional and international pressures are pushing both countries to reassess their political and strategic priorities. The repeated visits of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Cairo — most recently early this week — signal the emergence of a new phase in the relationship, moving beyond the long-standing diplomatic freeze and toward a potential reshaping of influence dynamics in the region.
Since diplomatic ties were severed in 1979 following Egypt's peace treaty with Israel, Cairo and Tehran have found themselves on opposing sides of most regional issues. But in recent years, major shifts have occurred. The Chinese-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the normalization of Iranian ties with the UAE and Turkiye's increased openness to Tehran have softened the region's traditional resistance to engaging Iran. As a result, one of the key constraints on Egypt's Iran policy has largely dissipated.
Egypt faces overlapping domestic and external challenges: a deepening economic crisis, growing security threats in the Red Sea and a diminishing regional role in key conflicts like Yemen, Syria and Palestine. Iran, meanwhile, is under intense Western pressure over its nuclear program, while its influence in Syria and Lebanon is slowly eroding. It is actively seeking new pathways to reposition itself in the regional order. These converging dynamics have made rapprochement not only possible, but necessary — a strategic adjustment more than an ideological shift.
Direct engagement with Tehran could be a key to stabilizing one of Egypt's most vital economic arteries.
Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy
Araghchi's latest visit to Cairo included meetings with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, as well as a tripartite meeting with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The visit clearly went beyond symbolic diplomacy, delving into sensitive topics such as regional security, nuclear negotiations and the future of Gaza.
The cultural dimension of the visit was equally significant. Araghchi toured Cairo's historic Khan El-Khalili district and visited the Imam Hussein Mosque, which he has frequented during prior trips. These gestures reflected a broader Iranian desire to build not just diplomatic but also religious and cultural bridges with Egypt, reframing the relationship not as one between two rival states, but as one between two core civilizations in the Islamic world.
Security is at the forefront of the motivations behind this rapprochement. Egypt has suffered financial losses due to Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, resulting in a sharp decline in Suez Canal revenues. Given Iran's influence over the Houthis, direct engagement with Tehran could be a key to stabilizing one of Egypt's most vital economic arteries.
Economic concerns also play a central role. Under Western sanctions, Iran is searching for new trade partners. Egypt, in the midst of its own economic hardship, could benefit from Iranian energy (transferred via Iraq) and expanded trade, assuming restrictions on Iran are eased.
Strategically, Egypt is looking to reassert its role as a regional mediator, especially due to its reduced influence in the Syrian and Yemeni files. Engaging Iran offers an opportunity to reaffirm Cairo's independent foreign policy and reestablish a strategic presence in the evolving regional order. The Gaza conflict further increases the necessity of alignment between regional powers. Iran maintains ties with key Palestinian factions, while Egypt plays the principal role in mediation. Coordination between the two is becoming increasingly vital.
This rapprochement is not a sudden development but a calculated response to a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy
Despite this momentum, Egypt remains cautious. The restoration of full diplomatic relations has not been announced and the two countries continue to operate through interests sections. Cairo is taking a step-by-step approach. This caution stems from multiple considerations. Egypt's close relations with the US, Israel and the Gulf require a delicate balancing act. A too-rapid rapprochement with Iran could jeopardize these strategic alliances. Arab public opinion remains wary of Iran's actions in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Egypt is also concerned about the potential for Iran to export its ideology through nonstate actors, especially in fragile Arab states.
Looking ahead, the outlook is positive but conditional. Both sides have expressed interest in launching a structured political dialogue and expanding cooperation in areas such as trade, energy and tourism. Should nuclear negotiations lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran, Egypt could benefit from Iranian oil via Iraq and strengthen the role of the Suez Canal as a primary route for energy exports. Iran, for its part, sees value in cultivating a nonaligned partner like Egypt, one that is capable of balancing Tehran's relationships with the Gulf, Turkiye and Israel.
This rapprochement is not a sudden development but a calculated response to a shifting geopolitical landscape. Iran can no longer afford to ignore Egypt in its regional calculus and Egypt cannot rebuild its regional weight without engaging all relevant players, including Tehran. As traditional alliances falter and new power structures emerge, Cairo and Tehran appear to be cautiously preparing to open a new chapter. Their relationship will be shaped by pragmatism and guided by mutual interest. If no major disruptions occur, this evolving partnership could reshape the political balance of the Middle East for years to come.