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MRPL shares rise 6%; Yes Securities forecasts improved Q2 performance
The market capitalisation of the company stood at ₹24,914.94 crore. The 52-week high of the company stood at ₹224.9 per share, and the 52-week low was at ₹98.92.
Brokerage firm Yes Securities believes that the worst for MRPL is behind and sees a better Q2 on stronger refining cracks. The brokerage maintained 'Buy' rating on the stock with a revised target of ₹180 per share from ₹160, valuing the stock at 1.9x FY27e price-to-book (P/B).
Yes Securities' bullish stance comes after the company reported Q1FY26 results on Friday, July 18, 2025. In Q1, the company's consolidated net loss for Q1FY26 stood at ₹271.97 crore as compared to a net profit of ₹73.22 crore a year ago. Its revenue from operations for the quarter stood at ₹20,988.03 crore as compared to ₹27,289.4 crore.
Yes Securities reckons that the weakness in earnings was dragged by shutdowns and inventory losses. The reported gross refinery margins (GRMs) were lower than the brokerage's expectations owing to Phase-II shutdown for 45 days in the quarter, which was more than expected due to record rainfalls. The exported products also declined due to lower plant utilisation and non availability of the feedstock. Track Stock Market LIVE Updates
MRPL's Q1FY26 reported GRM was USD3.88/bbl (USD6.23 the previous quarter, USD4.7 a year ago). Yes Securities had predicted GRM at USD7.3/bbl.
In one year, analysts of Yes Securities view MRPL standing to benefit tactically from the recent surge in refining margins, driven by geopolitical risk premium on crude (post Israel–Iran escalation) and resilient diesel cracks. With Brent 70/bbl, near-term GRMs may remain elevated, supporting earnings in H1FY26. The company sources over 33 per cent of its crude requirements from Russia at a discount, thereby boosting GRMs, one of the highest amongst Indian refiners at a single location.
In three years, MRPL's investment outlook is driven by its integrated operations and plans to expand into petrochemicals and fuel retailing. These moves are expected to improve profit quality by FY28, as demand for value-added products grows faster than fuel demand. Better pipeline connectivity will give MRPL more flexibility in sourcing crude oil. Its net debt-to-equity is currently 0.99x with ₹132.3 billion in debt, and the company aims to keep this level stable despite increasing capital expenditure.
A merger with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) is unlikely in the near future, as it depends on a decision by the promoters, ONGC and HPCL. Also, due to tax-related losses carried forward from the OMPL merger, any new merger can only happen after FY27, according to Yes Securities.
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