2025 Big Ten betting preview, odds: Favorite over/unders, conference bets and team ratings

Yahoo

4 days ago

For a while there, the Big Ten felt like a side tournament between Michigan and Ohio State to see which would face (and subsequently crush) a team from the west side of Lake Michigan in the conference title game. Then last year, a quartet of ex-Pac 12 teams were added, and Oregon came in and won it. Meanwhile, Penn State benefited from the Buckeyes' loss to the Wolverines, getting to Indianapolis, and now the buzz around the Nittany Lions is at an all-time high.
Over at THE WINDOW, we keep things simple, translating the market's opinion of a team into a rating out of 100. The Big Ten brass might be bummed out to find that it sits behind the SEC, but the rest of us are impressed by the average estimated market rating in the conference (65.6).
Just playing in the Big Ten warrants a strength-of-schedule boost of 17% above that of an average team, nationally. Even if some (we're looking at you, Indiana) are taking advantage of what conference they are in by avoiding a non-conference matchup against anyone with a pulse.
While the Big Ten fights for automatic bids for future College Football Playoffs, it'll figure out its place nationally in December and January. Before then, we're here to figure out who's priced with the best value to win the conference relative to their odds, which members of the conference are overrated or underrated, and if there are any Game of the Year lookahead lines worth locking in now.
Conference odds
The Big Ten landscape suffers from the same conundrum the SEC does. The more it argues about guaranteed CFP bids, the more we can at least wonder about the importance teams put on getting to their conference title game.
That shouldn't lead to some shocking matchup in the Big Ten Championship, but missing out on that 13th game didn't exactly hurt Ohio State last year.
As far as a cutoff point for teams that could at least possibly make it to Indianapolis, that probably includes Illinois, Nebraska and Iowa, but with four certified contenders — Ohio State (+190), Penn State (+240), Oregon (+350) and Michigan (+700) — breaking that bubble would be almost miraculous.
Team rating nationally
Here's a look at how the betting market rates each team in the conference on a national level. To project a point spread between any two teams, find the difference between their points, before applying 3-4 points for home-field advantage.
As part of the research for the Big Ten this season, there were two surprising reminders about Illinois:
The Illini won 10 games last season
Illinois is somehow alphabetically first when listing Big Ten teams
While the market might not be instantly aware of the latter, it seems wildly excited about the former, giving the Illini the team rating of a legitimate playoff contender because of last season's success.
USC is also among that group, but Lincoln Riley's tenure has been repeatedly underwhelming. The Trojans join Nebraska as teams whose high ceiling rests on the hope that a highly touted quarterback becomes the star he was promised to be.
At the bottom of the league, only Northwestern and Purdue are being rated as below-average teams nationally, but at least the Wildcats brought in what should be one of the biggest improvements for any team at quarterback, procuring the services of Preston Stone from SMU.
Best bets
Michigan to win the Big Ten (+700 at BetMGM)
In high-reward betting, we're looking for one key element that can take a team through its previously assumed ceiling.
When it comes to conference championship betting, having a positive path that gets a team to the title game acts as permission to take the chance on that key piece ending up being a super-catalyst.
Michigan's follow-up to the 2023 national championship was rocky. The Wolverines had to adjust to having to replace head coach Jim Harbaugh — with new coaches in new roles and more than a handful of stars leaving for the NFL. Oh, and they also didn't have a functional quarterback.
They took care of that latter by dropping a forklift of cash on the doorstep of No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood, while also scooping up Mikey Keene (1,170 career pass attempts at UCF and Fresno State), just in case.
Reports are that Underwood, who came in at 6-foot-4, 208 lbs, is now tipping the scales at around 230. If Underwood — clearly more physically ready — can be the dual-threat star his rumored $12.5 million NIL deal expects him to be, the Wolverines can beat anyone.
'Anyone' is an obvious reference to the Buckeyes, whom the Wolverines get at home this season, while also avoiding Penn State and Oregon. At least until a potential Big Ten title game, where at 10-1 odds, you'd be holding a ticket on a team that would:
Likely be no more than a field-goal underdog against its opponent, due to a team rating already not that far behind the top three contenders.
Have already shown that Underwood and Co. are playing at a higher level than their preseason expectations.
With a win over either Nebraska or USC on the road, even a dreaded loss to Ohio State should leave Michigan with a league record of 7-2, and at least a tiebreaker away from making it to Indianapolis. As always, shop around with conference odds, as there are some better prices at different books.
Regular-season win totals
Indiana over 8.5 wins (+110)
A bet on the Hoosiers is an exercise in being able to hold an idea that's contrary to a feeling.
We may feel like Indiana's non-conference scheduling practices are antithetical to what we'd like college football to be, and how decisions are made within the College Football Playoff committee. However, if Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers' athletic department are going to bet on a strategy of 'win as many games as possible and hope no one notices the opponents,' then why can't we profit off it?
It helps Cignetti that, as a Google search suggests, he's a darn good football coach who likes to — and does — win football games. So, after cruising through their first three games, the Hoosiers will only be underdogs in two of nine Big Ten games, as they somehow manage to miss Ohio State, Michigan and even USC.
A second offseason in Bloomington has allowed Cignetti to keep building, potentially even improving the Hoosiers' situation at quarterback by adding one of the top NFL prospects at the position in California transfer Fernando Mendoza.
Even if the narrative that Indiana snuck into the CFP last season might ring true, it may also be the reason over 8.5 wins is still priced as an underdog, making it worth a bet with our head, not our principles, on Indiana to flirt with playoff contention again.
Michigan State under 5.5 wins (+125)
The Spartans have something of their own cozy non-conference schedule with Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State coming to East Lansing, but, unlike Indiana, their Big Ten slate doesn't have landmines, so much as it is one big grenade.
Michigan State's best chance for a road win looks to be at Minnesota, where it will be around a touchdown underdog in a notoriously tricky place to play.
At home, head coach Jonathan Smith could have the Spartans in a good enough place to top UCLA, but the season-ender against Maryland is at Ford Field — which won't exactly be rocking in support of a team looking for just its sixth or (hopefully) fifth win.
Smith brought QB Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State, but getting to six wins will require a leap in production that doesn't seem likely based on what we saw last season (13:11 TD:INT ratio, 30 sacks taken).
Washington over 7.5 wins (-110)
Like Michigan, the year after the big season (new head coach, quarterback and in the Huskies' case — conference) was always going to be rough. However, all we need to know about Washington's chances for outperforming the betting market's expectations is this is the second season for Jedd Fisch.
Arizona went from 1-11 to 5-7 in his second season under Fisch (and then 10-3 in his third and final one), but the cupboard was considerably more bare in Tucson than it is in Seattle.
Will Rogers wasn't the perfect fit at QB last season, but more of a serviceable stopgap while highly talented freshman Demond Williams got a chance to watch. What Williams saw was a six-win season that wasn't nearly as bad as it seems, given the Huskies had to zigzag cross-country as part of their new conference schedule, with road games at Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and Oregon.
This season, Williams (with a full offseason as the No. 1 QB) only has four Big Ten road games, and one of those is even in Pacific Standard Time (at UCLA). Plus, not having to deal with John Mateer in the Apple Cup makes that game considerably more winnable (Huskies are 12.5-point favorites).
Bonus: Game of the Year value bet
Beyond the few Big Ten conference games that qualified in our earlier article listing one bet per week in the Game of the Year lookahead lines, here's another bet worth making with an eye on getting the best number possible before kickoff.
Week 5: Washington (+13.5) vs. Ohio State
Bettors have already gobbled up the +14 that was available on the Huskies' Week 5 game with the Buckeyes this summer, but that doesn't mean there still isn't some value left on Washington.
An estimated team rating of 62/100 comes without any boost above an average strength of schedule, which still projects Washington to be around 10-point underdogs to Ohio State. Any regard for a Husky slate that also includes Michigan, Illinois and Oregon, and the 7.5 wins Washington is lined at should equate to a rating that puts it just outside any top-25 ranking.
If the Buckeyes don't survive Week 1's showdown with Texas, and Washington dominates the Apple Cup, there may be a groundswell for UW's chances at an upset, and an even shorter point spread than our projection.