Travel disruptions fueled by Trump policies may culminate at peak summer season

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2 days ago

The Trump administration invited travel industry executives to the White House in May for a meeting on federal plans for the 2026 World Cup, a landmark event that under normal circumstances would draw massive international tourism to the United States. It was a welcome gathering by President Trump and his team for an industry eager to capitalize on a rare opportunity and capture tourism dollars.
Welcome, at least, until Vice President JD Vance cracked a joke.
'We'll have visitors from close to 100 countries — we want them to come, we want them to celebrate, we want them to watch the games. But when the time is up, they'll have to go home. Otherwise, they'll have to talk to Secretary Noem,' Vance said, referring to the Homeland Security secretary and head of border enforcement.
Vance's remarks, while taken in jest, fell flat in a room filled with experts more keenly aware than most of the challenges facing travel in the Trump era.
"It's one of those moments where you're almost, like, stop helping us," one participant in the meeting told The Times, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Stories are flooding media overseas of capricious denials and detentions at U.S. border crossings, raising concern among international tourists over spending top dollar on vacations to America that may end up disrupted, or never materialize. Erratic tariff policies out of the White House have shaken consumer confidence that experts say reliably tracks with discretionary spending on travel. And a series of scares in U.S. aviation, coupled with cuts to the National Park Service and the National Weather Service, have made planning trips to some of the country's top destinations less reliable.
In California, the nation's No. 1 tourist destination, international visits are expected to drop by 9.2% through the year, with international spending anticipated to drop 4.2%, according to a forecast published last month by Visit California and Tourism Economics.
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Around Yosemite National Park, one of the nation's most popular attractions, reported bookings were down 'as much as 50% going into Memorial Day weekend,' Caroline Beteta, president and chief executive of Visit California, told The Times.
Narratives of travel disruptions under the Trump administration have given pause to U.S. officials and industry experts concerned not only with the immediate economic consequences of a slower summer season, but with the prospects of anemic attendance at World Cup games next year and, beyond, for the Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028.
'Consumer confidence certainly matters,' said Geoff Freeman, president and chief executive of the U.S. Travel Assn. 'It creates a degree of uncertainty.'
Unlike much of the rest of the country, California is particularly susceptible to shifting trends among tourists from Asia, where tourism has yet to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic as robustly as it has in the Americas and Europe. Commercial flight restrictions over Russian airspace and the strength of the U.S. dollar haven't helped, Freeman said.
On the other hand, California benefits from a tourism industry that relies more heavily on domestic travelers, the source of 80% of tourism dollars spent in the state, Beteta noted.
'There's no question that there are widespread misperceptions about impacts to the travel experience, from reports about staff cuts to detentions at the border,' Beteta said. 'Cuts at the National Park Service, for example, don't affect the park concessionaires — and those companies run most of the visitor-facing services, such as lodging, dining, shuttle services and much more. The misperception of chaos at the parks is a PR issue that can have real consequences.'
But Cassidy Jones, senior visitation program manager at the National Parks Conservation Assn., said that cuts to the parks are tangible and will directly affect visitors' experience over the coming months, despite efforts by leadership at the Department of the Interior to paper over the cracks.
'There may be fewer entrance gates open,' Jones said. 'People should plan ahead and remember to be helpful park visitors. Take the optional shuttle. Come with supplies with you, as some facilities may be closed at hours you're not expecting, because they don't have the staff to keep them open. Toilets may not be unwinterized yet if they're in cold places.'
In April, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum issued an order directing that national parks be "open and accessible" through the summer season, as fears grew that staffing cuts implemented by the administration could become apparent. Still, the White House cuts and hiring freezes severely disrupted a seasonal hiring and training cadence for park rangers that usually begins around Christmas, Jones said.
"Some parks may not feel like a lot of changes are evident, but there's a lot of work that is not being done in the background," Jones added. "The order basically demanded that even though parks have experienced devastating staffing cuts, they are to put on a sort of public appearance that everything is business as usual. That means pulling superintendents to work in visitor centers, science and research management staff to make sure facilities are clean — biologists cleaning toilets, that sort of thing."
Twenty years ago, roughly half of flight delays were caused by uncertainty over the weather — a number that has dropped to 33% in recent years thanks to improved forecast quality. That progress is starting to reverse due to widespread cuts in talent, and will be felt by travelers sooner rather than later, said Rick Spinrad, who served as administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under President Biden.
Trump's government efficiency program, known as DOGE, has eliminated hundreds of positions at NOAA, including at the National Weather Service, and is proposing a 25% cut in the agency's budget.
"In the short term, this summer, when people are doing longer traveling, we may see a degradation of services. You may see more delayed flights, more weather-impacted flights," Spinrad said.
Read more: Massive cuts at National Weather Service spark fears about forecast quality, public safety
But Spinrad's concern is that the cuts to NOAA will soon be felt much more deeply, at the local level, among the emergency managers, local transportation departments and public health centers that count on reliable forecasts to map out their work.
"What we're going to start to see, I think, is the erosion of the capability of NOAA to provide services to the degree that people had become accustomed to," he said.
Spinrad visited Southern California in late May and was taken aback by the number of people raising concern over the agency's ability to continue predicting atmospheric river events, with all of their implications on public safety, reservoir operations and hydro power. Those forecasts rely heavily on the work of a satellite operations facility that was gutted by the Trump administration.
And the capabilities of the National Weather Service to predict phenomena like Santa Ana winds, which fueled devastating fires in Los Angeles in January, are at risk, with 30 of the agency's 122 weather forecast offices operating without meteorologists and with technicians cut throughout, he said.
"I know it will degrade, just by definition. Everything's going to degrade," Spinrad added. "All of NOAA's predictive capabilities will degrade as a result of these cuts."
Mark Spalding, president of the Ocean Foundation, warned the aviation industry would soon face disruptions as NOAA's capabilities continue to diminish.
"We will see effects this summer, because they've fired so many people and shut down so much activity," Spalding said.
"There are a lot of services that a lot of people rely on that NOAA provides — weather prediction, ocean observing, tsunami early warning, hurricane center monitoring," he added. "There's a lot this summer that could be affected in ways that are akin to what we're seeing in air traffic control due to the sudden loss of personnel there."
Still, Freeman, of the U.S. Travel Assn., expressed optimism for the U.S. tourism sector going forward, noting he and his counterparts are in "regular communication" with the Trump administration over headwinds facing the multitrillion-dollar industry.
"We have no shortage of challenges in the travel industry," he said. "I think the picture right now for travel is uncertain, at worst."
"For every challenge you see, there is an opportunity on the other side," he added.
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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.