
India humbled again as IMF approves $2.3b packages for Pakistan
In a diplomatic embarrassment for India, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday approved two packages worth $2.3 billion, including a new $1.3 billion programme.
The global lender approved the $1billion worth second loan tranche of the Extended Fund Facility and sanctioned new $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The deals have been approved despite India's unsuccessful move to block during the Executive Board meeting.
Pakistan's economic team, mainly its Secretary Finance Imdad Ullah Bosal and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, put a lot of work to keep the programme on track after initial setbacks.
Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar used his good terms with the PPP to fulfill some pending conditions, including the introduction of Agriculture Income Tax laws in Sindh and Balochistan.
The IMF would immediately release the $1 billion second loan tranche under the EFF while the $1.3 billion would be disbursed over a period of next 28 months. With the approval of the $1 billion second tranche due to Pakistan's better fiscal performance, the total disbursements under the EFF would reach to $2.1 billion.
India undertook an unwise move to block the approval despite having only 2.7% voting rights, the second defeat in less than 72 hours after losing five fighter jets to superior Pakistan Air Force.
The deals were reached after both sides made some adjustments in the 25th Extended Fund Facility (EFF), including lowering tax target in absolute terms, setting a new deadline to trim the Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund and open economy to foreign companies.
Pakistan will also impose carbon levy as part of the conditions of the new $1.3 billion programme with effect from July this year and increase water usage charges from next year as part of the conditions for the new Islamabad also reluctantly agreed to commence the study for phasing out the existing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) by 2035.
About two months ago, an IMF team had reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of the 37-month Extended Arrangement under the EFF, and on a new 28-month arrangement under the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) with total access over the 28 months of around $1.3 billion.
Pakistan would continue fiscal consolidation to reduce public debt while creating space for social and development spending and reducing crowding out of private investment. Pakistan will also refrain from increasing current spending beyond that budgeted, indicating that no supplementary grants can be issued.
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The committee estimated that the informal economy makes up 35% of the economy, translating to $140 billion today. The government must choose to incentivise or punish, but past experience shows punishments don't work. One major recommendation is to reduce the sales tax on digital payments from 18% to 5%, along with a three-year tax audit break for digital transactions. The committee also proposed eliminating customs duties on digital payment-related equipment. They believe these incentives could double digital transactions within six months. When the committee approached the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) about tax cuts, the FBR said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would oppose it. However, the IMF told the committee it had no objection and threw the ball back in FBR's court. On the punishment side, the committee suggested making cash payments more expensive. 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The government introduced the non-filer category in 2013 to broaden the tax base. However, over 12 years, it has become a tool to extract higher taxes rather than expand the base. Utility bills are also being used to collect taxes, hurting sectors like telecommunications. The telecom industry demands exemption from withholding tax deductions, similar to the banking sector. Telecom companies face deductions on thousands of transactions, such as electricity bills for cell towers. This raises compliance costs and administrative burdens. Verifying tax claims on these bills is also difficult for authorities, adding to the operational load. The industry argues withholding tax on telecom services should not be treated as a minimum tax, which applies even during loss-making years. Current harsh recovery measures disrupt business and undermine taxpayer confidence. CMOs pay advance or withholding tax on hundreds of thousands of transactions, including electricity bills and imports. Maintaining documents and handling audits demand significant effort and cause verification issues. They want the 4% withholding tax on telecom services to be adjustable rather than a minimum tax. The shift from adjustable income tax to minimum tax has effectively turned income tax from direct to indirect, the industry said. The sector also demands removal of the 10% advance income tax on auctions or renewals of telecom licenses. This advance tax raises business costs and capital expenses, hindering 4G/5G expansion and rural coverage. Further, the telecom sector wants the 75% advance tax on non-filers abolished, along with measures like SIM blocking, which have not produced meaningful results. Operators would need costly and time-consuming billing system upgrades to manage two tax rates. Since telecom services are essential, SIM blocking could deprive people of basic access. In April 2024, mobile operators were ordered to block SIM cards of over 500,000 non-filers. The Finance Act 2024 increased the advance income tax rate for non-filers to 75%. Additionally, non-compliance carries penalties of Rs50 million for the first offence and Rs100 million for subsequent violations. These punishments have failed, with the FBR shifting responsibility onto others. The withholding tax under Section 236 rose from 10% to 15% in the 2021 supplementary Finance Act. It applies only to tax filers, yet most telecom consumers are non-filers. The industry wants this rate reduced to 12.5% in the next budget.