U.S. Olympic hockey: Projecting the men's First 6, stock watch on the rest of the roster

New York Times

2 days ago

Bill Guerin has been preaching for years that it's incumbent on more American NHL players to participate in the World Championship if they're not playing in the postseason. Historically, it's been tough for USA Hockey to convince players after the grind of an 82-game season, plus the start of the playoffs for some, to suit up in red, white and blue.
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Guerin was general manager of the U.S. 4 Nations Face-Off team that lost to Canada in overtime 3 ½ months ago and is GM for the upcoming Winter Olympics in Milan. His day job is managing the Minnesota Wild, and even in his season postmortem with Wild beat writers, he made an impassioned argument for players to go annually to worlds.
'When are we going to win that tournament?' the three-time Olympian said. 'We need to win that tournament soon. We need our best players, though. Sidney Crosby and Nathan MacKinnon are going. That should say something. Our team is good this year and we have a lot of good players going. I hope it's not just because it's an Olympic year. I get it. It is an Olympic year. But we need this more consistently from our players to go over and play and try to win that tournament.'
Now, Guerin was talking a little out of both sides of his mouth.
Obviously, he wanted the Americans to win the worlds. But last March, Guerin publicly — and no-so subtly — made it clear that if U.S. players blew off worlds, it could be remembered when he and his staff picked this past February's 4 Nations Face-Off roster.
So clearly when it comes to picking next year's Olympic team, some American players heard the U.S. boss loud and clear, because this year's World Championship roster featured just two players who took part in the 4 Nations — Jeremy Swayman, who didn't play a game, and Zach Werenski — and a slew of Olympic hopefuls, including Tage Thompson, Clayton Keller, Alex Vlasic and Logan Cooley.
The result?
The Americans won their first gold medal since 1933 with the Buffalo Sabres' Thompson, a 4 Nations snub, scoring the Golden Goal in overtime.
Good bet Thompson is now firmly on the radar to be an Olympian, as are others who didn't make the 4 Nations roster.
'Tage impressed me. Clayton Keller impressed me. A lot of guys did,' Guerin, who technically wasn't on the management team for worlds, told The Athletic. 'They just played really freaking well. They played like a team. Like when I was over there, you could feel that there was something good going on there. You could feel the guys had really come together.'
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Olympic rosters don't have to be submitted until Dec. 31 for the Feb. 11 to 22 tournament. In late August, the United States is expected to hold an Olympic orientation camp in Plymouth, Mich. Guerin and his staff plan to invite up to 45 Olympic hopefuls. The worlds and the strong performances by some complicated the process, so the United States brass will again be keeping close tabs next season on which players get out of the gate strong and potentially earn themselves a roster spot, especially if some who made the 4 Nations roster sustain early-season injuries or struggle.
'It's a good problem to have,' Guerin said of having so many top-notch candidates. 'But it's not just that. It's the importance of the World Championships and the pride that we have to have in it and having more players go. Yes, it's an Olympic year. I'm glad I got a chance to see the guys play. But on top of that, it's making sure that we are putting a premium on that tournament.
'It was unbelievable. It was awesome to see us win. And on top of that, some guys really helped themselves potentially make the Olympic team.'
Next week, as early as Monday, the first six players for each Olympic team will be revealed. Last June, the first six Americans named to the 4 Nations Face-Off were forwards Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk and Jack Eichel, and defensemen Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Adam Fox.
Who will make it this time? Our projection has five of the six again chosen next week.
Auston Matthews: The U.S. captain led the NHL in goals in three of the past five seasons for the Toronto Maple Leafs and won the Hart Trophy in 2022.
Matthew Tkachuk: Tkachuk was a heart-and-soul guy in the 4 Nations before sustaining a significant injury that he tried to play through in the championship game. The Florida Panthers right wing won a Stanley Cup in 2024 and is vying for another.
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Jack Eichel: One of the top two-way centers in the NHL won a Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2023.
Quinn Hughes: The 2024 Norris Trophy winner and Vancouver Canucks captain had to bow out of the 4 Nations because of an injury, but the superstar defenseman is an Olympic lock.
Charlie McAvoy: The Boston Bruins' top defenseman was having a terrific 4 Nations until he sustained a shoulder injury and then missed the rest of the tournament with an infection. He'd ultimately miss the rest of the season for Boston, but he's a shoo-in.
Brady Tkachuk: Like his brother, Brady also got hurt in the tournament, but he may have been the United States' best player in terms of energy, physicality and big goals, tying Jake Guentzel for the team lead. Couple that with a tough tournament by defenseman Adam Fox that likely no longer makes the New York Rangers former Norris Trophy winner an Olympic lock, and there's just no way that there aren't two Tkachuks in the first six.
In the Olympics, each team can have 25-player rosters, meaning the U.S. will likely have one extra forward and one extra defenseman.
Up front, it's likely Chris Kreider is out after a tough 4 Nations and season with the Rangers. The same could be true for Brock Nelson, although coaches love his ability to win draws and kill penalties. That's also what makes right-shot center Vincent Trocheck valuable. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Kyle Connor, who started the tournament on the first line, was almost instantly demoted to the fourth line and scratched in the championship. He had one assist in three games.
Here's betting the ginormous and versatile Thompson makes the team.
From there, the U.S. will be watching a number of forwards next year.
Keller would offer speed and offense and somebody who's exceptional from the right circle on the power play, but the Americans also have Jack Hughes, who was not very good in the 4 Nations, with one assist in four games, as well as Matt Boldy and Connor. They are all similar, and you probably don't want too many of the same style.
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Other non-4 Nations forwards who could be invited to Plymouth include Cooley, Frank Nazar (who was outstanding at worlds with six goals and 12 points in 10 games), Jason Robertson, Alex Tuch, Bryan Rust, Patrick Kane, Conor Garland, Shane Pinto, Matty Beniers and Cole Caufield, who was conspicuous in his absence at worlds. The Americans could also invite youngsters such as Cutter Gauthier, Will Smith, Isaac Howard and Ryan Leonard.
The U.S. was essentially a shot away from winning 4 Nations before Connor McDavid ruined its hopes. Could that change the roster construction?
'Look, we could say we're going to take the same team, but we don't know what's going to happen with injuries or guys not playing well at that time or what,' Guerin said. 'We've got to go through the process again. But the Canada-U.S. games, they weren't high scoring, but they were high-checking, and you've gotta be able to play that type of hockey.
'We're not gonna play Canada every night. So we're gonna have to be able to play a lot of different ways. The roster that we had has the ability to score goals. But the good thing is that we had the ability to check as well.'
McAvoy, Hughes, Werenski, Jaccob Slavin, Brock Faber and Jake Sanderson are almost surely locks.
That leaves two spots.
Fox likely will have to play himself on the team at this point. He struggled mightily with the pace of the tournament and made multiple mistakes leading to McDavid's winning goal. But his new Rangers coach, Mike Sullivan, will coach the Olympic team, and his GM, Chris Drury, is part of the U.S. management group. So perhaps that will help.
Noah Hanifin is also likely on the bubble.
Who could pass Fox and Hanifin by?
Vlasic has a real shot if he gets off to a good start with Chicago. Neal Pionk had a great season with the Winnipeg Jets. The Panthers' Seth Jones has been superb in the playoffs. And then there's Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, who also didn't go to worlds, and youngster Zeev Buium, who didn't play a lot at worlds but scored one of the biggest goals in the tournament.
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Other potentials include K'Andre Miller, Jackson LaCombe, Ryan McDonagh, Brady Skjei and Luke Hughes.
The U.S. will likely return with the same goaltending cast of Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger and Swayman.
Who gets the nod will be determined closer to the tournament, but even though Hellebuyck is coming off his third consecutive subpar postseason with the Jets, he was great in the 4 Nations and likely has the inside track.
Oettinger started one meaningless game in the 4 Nations and played well, but lost. And even though his postseason with Dallas started terrifically, it sure ended poorly with him getting chased after allowing two early goals to the Edmonton Oilers in an elimination game during the Western Conference final.
Swayman had a rough 2024-25 season after arriving late to the Bruins following a contract dispute, but if he has a solid start next season, his World Championship performance (1.69 goals-against average and .921 save percentage in seven games) could, shall we say, sway things.
(Top photo of Matthew and Brady Tkachuk: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)